[A-List] "Has the Fuhrer seen this map?"

[Bob Enoch <bobenoch@xxxxxxx>]

The next five or six weeks are a period of real danger for  5 Corps in Iraq.
It is becoming self-evident that this force does not have the power to
"take" Baghdad.Talk of Northern and Western "fronts" is pure bunkum,
embarrassing even to tv "generals".
There is nothing about the US Armed forces which exempts them from the
logistical laws which govern mechanized warfare, or the endurance limits of
fighting units.
5 Corps is sitting at the end of a supply line which is indeed reminiscent
of the situation of the Germans at Stalingrad.
For them to launch an all-out attack on dug-in defences in these conditions
would present the possibility of disaster for the "spearhead".Running short
of fuel and ammunition during an offensive risks complete defeat.
And a sandstorm during , or after such an attack could lead to the
destruction of 5 Corps., as it would make possible an armoured attack on the
Highway.
The sensible military course is withdrawal to a line Nasiriyah-Najaf-Kut,
none of which has yet "fallen", and the taking of Basrah.
This course presents grave political difficulties, as did Von Paulus' desire
to withdraw from the Volga in '42-'43.

Remember that there is now no "rear area" in Iraq. No towns have been taken,
depending on what you believe about Umm Qasr. No secure rest areas. The
fighting edge of 5 corps has been continuously engaged for ten days.The
Iraqis have it in their power to keep these troops engaged for a great while
yet, even if 5 Corps don't attack.
Further, there is no end in sight for this situation facing the 3rd. ID, and
the Marine E.F.
The 4th ID, arriving now in Kuwait, needs weeks to assemble and tune-up as a
unit to exert its massive effect on the battlefield. It will not get them.It
will be have to be used piecemeal to relieve exhausted units in 5 Corps, and
along the supply line.
1st Cav. and other units will take even longer to arrive and be ready for
this battlefield.
This means that no overwhelming force can safely approach Baghdad for at
least several months, if then.We still don't know how well the Republican
Guard is camouflaged; I suspect very well indeed.
And then there is the weather.
And suicide bombers.
In conventional terms, the war has entered a very difficult phase for the
invaders.There is a danger of a heavy , undeniable defeat.
Here is the rub.
It is not easy to see how the US could use their own WMD in a decisive way
on the battlefield without causing tens of thousands of civilian dead.In the
current Global polity that is emerging
the reaction to that would be electric, and unpredictable.This may be Iraqs'
best defence against WMD, but the pressure for a frightened regime to use
them will be great.
If they are not a bit frightened surveying this operational map, they should
be.

Bob