[A-List] US imperialism: Balkans success!

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

The west ignores the Balkans at its peril
By Mark Medish
Financial Times: March 13 2003

The disintegration of Yugoslavia is yesterday's news. But, as we have
learned from Iraq, old headlines can reappear with a vengeance if critical
missions are left incomplete. The assassination of Zoran Djindjic is a
sobering reminder that the work of postwar reconstruction is a long, often
dangerous process.

As a US-led "coalition of the willing" prepares for war against Iraq,
western leaders would do well to remember unfinished business related to
their earlier military intervention in the Balkans in the 1990s. Indeed,
that experience holds important lessons for a post-Saddam Middle East.
Winning the peace requires as much commitment and purpose as winning the
war.

Lasting stabilisation in south-east Europe is within reach, although it will
require lasting attention and assistance from the US and Europe. Keeping an
eye on this corner of the world is particularly difficult when the political
focus has shifted overwhelmingly to the war on terrorism and to the
countries in the "axis of evil". But we ignore the Balkans at our peril.

The parallel processes of European Union and Nato enlargement have created a
positive sense of convergence between east and west in those countries set
to join in the next few years. However, other would-be members fear they
will be left behind for ever. These countries at risk of marginalisation,
and thus destabilisation, include Serbia and Montenegro, Macedonia,
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Albania and, to a lesser degree, Romania and Bulgaria,
which have at least joined Nato.

US intervention in the Balkans, although late in the day, is a success story
of nation-building and regional integration. War and genocide were ended in
Bosnia-Herzegovina, and later in Kosovo, by outside force. Ultimately, the
people of Yugoslavia ousted Slobodan Milosevic and delivered him to The
Hague to face war crimes charges. In doing so, they brought a "rogue state"
in from the cold. But regional peace still has to be secured. Success may
yet unravel.

The US and EU have spent billions of dollars in aid for economic development
and the building of new institutions to support democracy and open markets.
These efforts are necessarily slow. Financial and technical assistance can
be imported. But the political will and trust it takes to build a country
must come from within.

In the coming period, several unsettled issues need to be addressed. First,
the new union of Serbia and Montenegro must be embraced more vigorously by
the international community. The Serbs did what the Iraqis have not done:
they got rid of a murderous regime. The west has responded with generosity,
for example, via official debt forgiveness. But the cat-and-mouse game of
sanctions tied to the arrest of indicted war criminals has gone well beyond
the point of diminishing returns. It has undermined the very reformers who
liberated the country, such as Mr Djindjic. Western-imposed conditionality
is sapping the country's political strength.

Second, Kosovo's final status must be handled carefully and gradually. Calls
for early resolution and a swift withdrawal of international peacekeepers
could have disastrous consequences. Third, Bosnia-Herzegovina can still
succeed as a unified country under the terms of the Dayton Accord, but the
integration of its separate communities and the building of inter-ethnic
institutions need to be stepped up.

Fourth, as part of its EU accession talks, Croatia should be pressed to
ratify the treaty of Yugoslav state succession signed at Vienna in 2001.
Croatia is single-handedly blocking the legal settlement and distribution of
sovereign assets to all the successor states, including cash-strapped
Macedonia, Bosnia, and Serbia and Montenegro.

Fifth, the US and EU must continue to provide financial support, technical
assistance, and help promote investment in the region. The international
financial institutions and aid agencies must remain firmly engaged.

Finally, the west should hold out the genuine prospect of Balkan membership
of its clubs as a carrot for essential political and economic reforms. Under
the Greek and Italian presidencies this year, the EU has an incentive to
focus more closely on south-east Europe. Meanwhile, Nato should establish an
Adriatic Charter, similar to the successful Baltic Charter, to bring the
Balkans into a formal dialogue on security leading to early membership.

If we get these things right, the Balkans could one day cease to be a byword
for strife and distrust. Neither the Americans nor the Europeans can afford
to turn their gaze.

The writer was senior director of the National Security Council and US
deputy assistant Treasury secretary, 1997-2001