[A-List] China: Doing Homework

["annewilliamson" <annewilliamson@xxxxxxx>]

This particular Spyspeak has some things going for it, but -
unsurprisingly - these former
supporter/supplicants of the establishment wimp out just when it gets
interesting, i.e. the
currency issue.  The US dollar is headed for extinction as the reserve
currency.  I don't know
if that will be in the next 5 weeks, 5 months, 5 years, or 50 years, but it
is going to happen.
I'm willing too to mount the argument that it is the yuan which will replace
it, and that those who
have placed their hopes on the euro will be disappointed - and impoverished
eventually.  I am
not taking that position for political reasons - in fact, I'd rather like to
see the euro succeed as
a monetary instrument that could take reserve status.  (This result would be
better for me personally,
and more "comfortable" culturally, quite frankly.  I'm sorry to say I don't
think it's going to pan
out for economic reasons - reasons which, yes, are tied up with political
fundamentals.)

The Chinese could leap ahead if they concentrate on their currency in the
next decade.  It would be
a must faster story than told below.  And, who knows?  It could happen far
more quickly than even
I foresee, considering the times.

A.
=================================================================

STRATFOR'S GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
http://www.stratfor.com
12 March 2003

=================================================================


Today's Featured Analysis

China Studies U.S. Expansionism

Summary

China's official People's Daily published an article March 11 on
the history of the United States and its so-called fourth stage
of expansion, the "stage of world domination." The article
provides insight into Chinese leaders' views of U.S. motives and
goals --views that will shape future Chinese-U.S. relations.

Analysis

China's official People's Daily on March 11 published an article
titled, "American Empire Steps Up Fourth Expansion," tracing the
history of the United States and laying out four stages of U.S.
expansion: continental expansion, overseas expansion, contention
for global hegemony and the move toward world domination.
According to the article, Washington is now entering the fourth
phase.

The article offers insights into Chinese leaders' views of
American history, motivations and goals. Far from a wildly
inflammatory piece of propaganda, the story explains the concept
of U.S. expansionism as being based upon the twin pillars of
capitalism and "moral right," and it sets each "phase" of
America's path to becoming an empire in a historical context.

For Beijing, the only way to stymie the fourth phase is through
promoting multilateralism; barring that, China must be prepared
to confront the United States in the future, and U.S. history can
give some guidance.

"In a short space of 200-odd years' time, the United States has
developed from a small colony into a peerless empire of today,"
the article states, citing relative political stability,
scientific and technological innovations, economic development
and, not least, expansionism as the primary reasons for U.S.
strength. Expansionism is defined not only as the acquisition of
new territories but also as the spread of U.S. cultural,
political, economic and military influence.

U.S. empire-building is compared more closely to that of the
British than of the Romans, with economics and a sense of moral
obligation cited as the primary driving forces. The author takes
particular note of the "commercial expansionist spirit" running
through the four phases and even to the degree that it drew the
United States into unwanted conflicts, such as World War I. At
the same time, the writer notes the fact that not only
internationally, but even in America, many view the U.S. claim of
a moral justification for its outward expansion as suspect.

According to the article, the first phase of American expansion,
continental expansion, lasted from the founding of the United
States to just before the Spanish-American war. During that time,
America took advantage of Europe's internal struggles and began
reaching westward.

The second phase, overseas expansion, lasted from the Spanish-
American war to the end of World War II. During this time, the
United States began acquiring overseas territories to facilitate
its rise as "one of the principal capitalist countries in the
world."

The third phase, contention for global hegemony, is described as
lasting from 1949 to 1991. This was the Cold War, a time when
Washington vied with Moscow for influence and control across the
globe.

World domination, the current phase, is said to have started
after the fall of the Soviet Union, when the United States
suddenly found itself the sole superpower. Over the past decade,
the writer explains, Washington's move toward world domination
was facilitated by economic troubles in Japan and Europe and the
economic reconstruction in Russia and China.

The article poses a question as to when this fourth phase will
end, noting the two key factors will be the outcomes of the war
against terrorism and the war in Iraq. It then concludes by
saying, "Only when the United States refrains from taking the
road of pursuing global empire can it avoid terrorists' bombs or
other forms of attacks befalling on its own territory."

Although this conclusion appears somewhat gratuitous -- as China
claims to have no imperial designs and yet still says it faces
domestic terrorist threats -- the overall tone and content of the
article indicates much about how China views the United States.
>From Beijing's perspective, an unchallenged United States is
moving inexorably toward global domination, motivated by economic
self-interest covered with a thin veneer of moral justification.

Yet there is little China can do either to dissuade Washington or
alter the U.S. course. Thus, Beijing continues to focus on the
concept of multilateralism and the legitimacy of the United
Nations as the best ways to slow or even disrupt U.S.
expansionism. At the same time, Beijing is preparing to face a
future confrontation with the United States if necessary.

Looking at U.S. history, China has noted four primary factors
leading to the strengthening of the United States: relative and
consistent political stability, ongoing scientific and
technological innovation, strong economic development and a
policy of expansionism. And as a new generation of leaders
prepares to assume power in Beijing later this week, they are
taking heed and focusing intensely on the first three. The
Chinese government is restructuring its bureaucracy and clamping
down on corruption and regionalism. It is checking factional
infighting in an attempt to ensure a smooth political transition
not only this year, but five and 10 years on.

China's continued economic growth and a focus on science and
technology are foremost in most plans being put forth by the
central government. Beijing is seeking to skip stages in its
economic development, leaping directly into high technology, and
its continual focus on its manned space program and the
restructuring of the military underscore this. Yet Beijing also
sees the benefits of expansionism -- even if only in the realm of
extending political, economic and cultural influence.

As China's new leaders take over, they will face domestic
economic and social difficulties and the challenge of continuing
to reform and restructure a massive bureaucracy. But they also
will develop China's foreign policy for the 21st century -- and
their read of Washington's history, motives and goals will
strongly affect their policies.
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