[A-List] Russian imperialism: Uzbekistan

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Uzbek strongman under Russian attack
By Sergei Blagov
Asia Times, March 13 2003

MOSCOW - Uzbek President Islam Karimov have been targeted by an orchestrated
campaign by Russian-language media outlets, including allegations of
terminal illness. Despite Moscow's attempts to distance itself from this
smear campaign, claims of alleged division among Uzbek politicians might
indicate that the viability of Karimov's regime may soon face a test.

Notably, on March 6, the Russian daily Nyezavisimaya Gazeta, or NG,
published a longish article claiming that Karimov was probably terminally
ill. It also alleged that the president might have been dead and replaced by
a double amid fierce infighting between feuding Uzbek clans.

Moreover, NG claimed that the Uzbek elite was split between the Samarkand
clan, headed by Karimov's adviser Ismail Dzhurabekov and Interior Minister
Zakir Almatov, and the Tashkent-Ferghana clan, headed by Karimov's aide,
Timur Alimov and Defense Minister Kadyr Gulyamov. The daily also speculated
that the split could become so violent that it would warrant deployment of
international peacekeepers in Uzbekistan.

As NG presumably went too far in speculation over would-be international
military operation in Uzbekistan, the Kremlin opted to distance itself from
such allegations. The publication of unchecked information about Karimov's
death caused our "indignation and denouncing" the Russian Foreign Ministry
said in a statement.

NG's allegations came as the latest in a series of semi-anonymous attacks on
the Internet on the Uzbek leader. For instance, Russian-language articles
posted on the Internet alleged Karimov's complicity in drug trafficking out
of Afghanistan via Uzbekistan to Europe. One article claimed that during the
1991 Soviet collapse, Karimov in fact opposed Uzbek independence, despite
his subsequent claims to the contrary. These stories also urged Uzbeks to
oust Karimov's regime.

It has been reported that all web sites that published anti-Karimov articles
have been shut down for Uzbek Internet users. However, adding to the
government's concerns, photocopies of inflammatory stories have been
circulating in Uzbek cities.

Not surprisingly, the Uzbek official media launched fierce propaganda
counterattacks in response to the Russian-language articles. For instance,
state-run television run a number of documentaries praising Karimov's
leadership. One was reportedly designed to dismiss allegations that Karimov
had opposed Uzbek independence in 1991.

The official reaction arguably indicated that Uzbek authorities viewed the
accusations as a serious threat. The media attacks come at a sensitive time
for Uzbekistan as the country's importance for the United States has
seemingly started to fade.

Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, Uzbekistan has emerged as
the strongest backer of US policies. Karimov allowed Khanabad military base
in Kaskkadariyn region, which was once the largest former Soviet military
facility in Central Asia, to be used for international operations in
Afghanistan.

In response, Western governments, especially the US, have expressed support
for Tashkent in public statements, although keeping some pressure for
liberalization in closed-door discussions. However, in recent months, there
have been more critical voices in the West over Uzbekistan's future.

For instance, a report released in February by the Brussels-based
International Crisis Group said that a "window of opportunity" for
substantive political and economic reform is closing on Uzbekistan, raising
the odds that social upheaval will engulf the Central Asian country.
"Uzbekistan's future looks bleak unless serious economic and political
reforms are implemented," said the report.

The report stressed that in 2002 Uzbekistan enjoyed "a favorable
international environment", fostered mainly by Tashkent's close strategic
cooperation with the US, that created optimal conditions for reform, but
Karimov failed to take advantage of the opening. The report says that a
policy of "positive engagement" is "unlikely to work in Uzbekistan" because
Tashkent does not have a genuine desire to change, but rather only want "a
new flow of external funds". The report urges the international community to
adopt a harder line on reforms in Uzbekistan.

As Washington's attention shifts from Afghanistan to Iraq, Tashkent realizes
that the strategic importance of the US military base at Khanabad fades.
Subsequently, Uzbek authorities definitely want their voice to be heard in
the US.

On March 6, Karimov voiced strong support the US position on Iraq. "We
support the position of the United States to resolve the Iraqi problem," he
said at a news conference with visiting Slovak President Rudolf Schuster.
"We are concerned that some European countries do not follow a
straightforward position relative to anti-terrorist operations," Karimov was
quoted as saying by RIA.

Presumably, Karimov's show at the news conference was supposed to refute
media allegations about his illness. Karimov's mention of "some European
countries" may also be interpreted as implicit criticism of Russian
reluctance to agree with the war on Iraq. Incidentally, the Russian NG daily
has speculated that Uzbek authorities might want to offer the Pentagon the
use of the Khanabad base in the war against Saddam Hussein.

In the meantime, Uzbekistan faces economic problems, following its punitive
tariffs on imports introduced last summer. As a result, much of the
cross-border trade ended up in smugglers' hands and the Uzbek government
ultimately repealed punitive tariffs.

However, these actions led to disruption of cross-border trade, and have
fueled popular discontent and pushed trade out of the country into
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. As a result, Uzbekistan now suffers from a
cross-border outflow of hard currency estimated at some $100 million per
month.

The hard currency drain prompted Tashkent to virtually seal its borders,
heightening tension with all of its Central Asian neighbors. In December
2002, Uzbek officials began closing border crossings along the frontiers
with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan in an effort to
eliminate smuggling. Uzbek-Turkmen tension has been high since a failed
assassination attempt against Turkmen leader Saparmurat Niyazov last
November, who has accused Tashkent of aiding alleged plotters.

Moscow took notice of Uzbekistan's feuding with its neighbors. Presumably,
the Kremlin might be tempted to capitalize on Uzbek isolation in the region.
Last January, the head of President Vladimir Putin's administration,
Alexander Voloshin, traveled to Uzbekistan to meet Karimov. "Uzbekistan is
interested in further development of cooperation with Russia," Karimov
reportedly told Voloshin.

Russia has been interested in enlisting Uzbekistan into its hydrocarbon game
in Central Asia. Earlier this month Russian natural gas giant Gazprom
indicated interest in acquiring a 44 percent stake in the Uzbek pipeline
monopoly Uzbektransgas. The deal was supposed to facilitate supplies of
Turkmen gas to Russia via Uzbek pipelines. However, Gazprom's acquisition of
the Uzbektransgas stake is yet to materialize.