[A-List] People of Baghdad Await the Inevitable - The lndependent (UK)

["Ralph Johansen" <michele@xxxxxxxx>]

The lndependent (UK)
February 27, 2003

People of Baghdad Await the Inevitable and Fear the Worst

by Kim Sengupta in Baghdad

The Iraqi people know that a war is inevitable, that many will die
and that those who survive will have their lives changed for good.
And, most of all, they are afraid that something calamitous, terrible
even by the standards of this violent country, will befall Baghdad.

The cautious optimism present even a month ago that the return of the
UN inspectors would prevent a conflict has evaporated. The two cities
that will bear the brunt of the suffering, it is commonly said, are
Tikrit - Saddam Hussein's birthplace and power base, which the
Americans have threatened to pulverize- and Baghdad, where the
government will make its last stand.

Every morning, the people of Baghdad see the convoys of UN inspectors
set off on their searches for weapons of mass destruction. They can
also use internet bars in the city to read reports in the Western
media about how Washington has already made plans for an Iraq under
US occupation.

Karim Hassan Noor, a teacher, was watching a TV at the Shah Bandar
café showing UN inspectors foraging through a "suspect site". He
shook his head. "All this is now for show," he said. "It doesn't
matter if they find nothing. The Americans will find an excuse and
attack us when they are ready."

Mr Noor, 42, fears the future. "We know war in this country, but this
time it is going to be much, much worse than before," he said. "We
have suffered all these years under sanctions and now we are going to
get bombed by Bush. But there are other problems internally. There
will be elements who will try to take advantage of the situation.
Everyone has guns here, and there are lots of scores to settle."

Mr Noor's companion, Majid Hussein, an unemployed engineer, agreed.
"There are people over there who will try to come in. That is why we
are afraid for ourselves and our families," he said. "Over there" is
an area called Saddam City, a vast, sprawling, suburban slum half an
hour's drive from the center of Baghdad. It is home to 40 per cent of
the capital's population of 10 million, and almost every one is a
Shia.

In Baghdad, the people are careful with their words. A man in his
twenties said: "We do not want the Americans and the British to
attack. But yes, there is unhappiness here and many people have guns.
I will not do anything myself, but there will be people who will do
some very bad things."

It is a very brave or foolhardy Iraqi who talks publicly about
"regime change" and Abbas Najib is neither, but he acknowledges that
is what a war may bring. "The Americans will want to put in a puppet,
or they will try to rule Iraq themselves. We all know they want our
oil. They will try to control it whatever happens. If anything should
happen to the President, and we all hope nothing does, Iraqis should
decide their own future," he said.

"All we can do is wait," said Mr Noor, lifting his cup of tea to his
lips. "This is the worst part, waiting and knowing that what is going
to happen will be very bad."

* The US has identified 2,000 members of Iraq's elite, and
categorized them into those who would be tried for war crimes and
those who could help administer a post-Saddam Iraq, The New York
Times reported yesterday.


The lndependent (UK)
February 27, 2003

Charities 'Shocked' by Lack of Plan for Refugees

by Marie Woolf

Charities have warned that Iraq faces a far worse humanitarian crisis
than Afghanistan after a war and accused the Government of failing to
prepare for the emergency.

The aid agencies predicted that 900,000 Iraqis could flee, mostly to
neighboring Iran. Yet the Government had no contingency plans, such
as talking to neighboring states about opening their borders and
setting up refugee camps, the agencies said.

In the Commons, Clare Short, the Secretary of State for International
Development, accused the charities of "grandstanding". She said
Britain was giving an extra £3.5m to support United Nations
contingency planning for humanitarian relief in Iraq.

Save the Children said it was shocked by the lack of preparations by
the Government when planning should have started three months ago. A
spokesman said: "We are not able to prepare essential supplies and we
are not able to place orders for specialist equipment and resources
and we are not able to make concrete plans to respond to the threats
we foresee. It's very worrying that the European Union and the UK
Government have not been preparing."

Christian Aid said there was "huge potential" for catastrophe. "When
there's war all distribution of aid breaks down ... We need to come
up with preparations. But I don't see a plan," a spokesman said.

Ms Short said the UN must take the lead in running Iraq after a war.
Her "greatest worry" was that the international community had not yet
agreed the UN should run any interim administration.

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