[A-List] Germany: anti-war position

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

After the election of Gerhard Schröder in 1998, I thought that the main
problem in German politics was the SPD (Social Democrats). This was not
helped by the chumminess between Schröder and Blair and their joint "Third
Way/Die Neue Mitte" manifesto. The resignation of Oskar Lafontaine seemed to
confirm Schröder's utter opportunism and willingness to cave into
neoliberalism. The Greens countered their sell-out over the deployment of
troops abroad (Kosovo, Afghanistan) by celebrating the phasing out of
nuclear power, and the SPD leadership was happy to go along with these. But
for over a year now it is the Green Party that has been eager to further
neoliberal reform, against the reluctance of Schröder. And, as the FT has
recently been reporting, it is Joschka Fischer and his Green colleagues who
most despair of Schröder's position on Iraq -- Fischer would like nothing
better than to mend fences with Washington, and the content of this article
relating to "diplomats' despair at the lack of a German exit strategy" may
be read as representative of the Green leadership. They are the weakest link
and look most likely to buckle -- perhaps only the promise of continuing
power is keeping them on-side, together with the stern reminder of the mass
of opposition to war among the traditional constituents of both Greens and
the SPD. Therefore it is vital that this mass movement keeps up the
pressure -- otherwise what is to stop Fischer and co. reaching some sort of
accommodation with the CDU?


Moscow and Berlin fall in line with Chirac
By Jo Johnson in Paris and Haig Simonian in Berlin
Financial Times: February 25 2003

Russian and German backing for Monday night's French memorandum to the
Security Council on UN weapons inspections in Iraq is a coup for French
foreign policy and the personal diplomacy of President Jacques Chirac.

The memorandum states: "To render possible a peaceful solution, inspections
should be given the necessary time and resources."

However, it continues: "They can not continue indefinitely. Iraq must
disarm. Its full and active co-operation is necessary. This must include the
provision of all the additional and specific information on issues raised by
the inspectors as well as compliance with their requests."

The restatement of the Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis and commitment to further
inspections appears to set three of the most influential Security Council
members on a very different path from the US, UK and Spain, whose draft
resolution was concurrently circulated to Security Council members and
potentially sets the scene for war.

However, diplomats observed that the memorandum could serve as the basis for
an eventual French "exit strategy" if Iraq failed to comply with the
benchmarks set.

Monday's events marked the climax of a week of feverish diplomatic activity
by Mr Chirac, who travelled to Berlin to seek Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's
support for the inspections plan.

French foreign minister Dominique de Villepin told the newspaper Le Figaro:
"In addition to reinforcing the inspections, the aim of the memorandum is to
define concrete criteria by which to measure disarmament. Inspections are
producing good results and can ultimately achieve the disarmament of Iraq."

A French foreign ministry spokeswoman yesterday said the memorandum was not
an ultimatum and that there would be no end-date attached to the timetable.
"We are still in the logic of inspections, which are achieving results,
rather than a logic of war," she said.

Mr Schröder, before his meeting with Mr Chirac, said: "We are with France of
the opinion that within the bounds of [November's UN resolution] 1441 we
have enough possibilities to support the progress that the inspectors are
making. That is why, at the current time - that is the common position - a
new resolution is not necessary."

Monday's memorandum builds on a "non-paper" circulated to the Security
Council by France earlier this month, calling for a tripling of the number
of inspectors and UN guards to "freeze" suspected weapons sites, and more
spy plane overflights.

Mr Chirac also spoke by telephone on Monday to Russian President Vladimir
Putin. The two men confirmed "the closeness of the positions of Russia and
France, based on the priority of political-diplomatic methods of resolving
the Iraq problems," the Kremlin said.

Monday night's meeting between the French and German leaders, part of
regular informal consultations, came as Mr Schröder repeated Germany's
strict anti-war position on Iraq.

Mr Schröder, who exploited the Iraq crisis in last year's election campaign,
has come to depend closely on French support for his controversial position.
As relations with Washington have grown icier, the chancellor has
co-ordinated ever more closely with Mr Chirac.

Many German diplomats privately deplore the fact that their government has
left itself no exit strategy, should the Security Council back military
action. They also recognise the danger of isolation should France, which has
not excluded the use of force, change its approach.

Joschka Fischer, the German foreign minister, will travel to London on
Tuesday to brief Jack Straw, his British opposite number, and Tony Blair on
the Franco-German talks.