[A-List] What has France to lose?

[Chris Burford <cburford@xxxxxxxxxx>]

The juggernaut theory of premeptive strike assumed that all other countries
including France would fall into line. Now that France and Germany, with
the support of Russian and China, have defied the US hegemonic bloc, the
pressure is on the US. Bush has more to lose if events unfold unfavourably
for him than does the anti-hegemonistic alliance.

A new balance of power has emerged in the world.

Why is this possible? Crucial is the analysis of the present state of
imperialism: such that inter-imperialist rivalries will occur particularly
under the pressure of mass campaigns, but the inter-imperialist
contradictions are not so great that open war between the main powers is
likely. So the anti-US group do not have to fear the towering superiority
of US power.

(The former Soviet Union was beaten by the economic competition of trying
to maintain military parity, but France, say, does not have to do that. The
nature of current world contradictions is that a country like France can
gain more, and put the US under more pressure than it will lose, by playing
with a veto.)

Bush may still have to go with his logic of regime change by war, but his
domestic opinion poll figures are sliding, and he cannot be sure that the
economy won't turn worse.


Chris Burford
London