[A-List] Iran: nuclear strategy

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Iran poses third nuclear threat to US

Tehran uses Washington's preoccupation with Iraq and North Korea to rattle
its own sabre

Julian Borger in Washington, Dan De Luce in Tehran, and Helena Smith
Tuesday February 11, 2003
The Guardian

US officials, preoccupied with the crises in Iraq and North Korea, are
playing down the urgency of the announcement by Iran, the third member of
Washington's "axis of evil", that it will produce and reprocess nuclear
fuel.

But analysts said President Mohammad Khatami's statement was disturbing,
since it represented nuclear ambitions beyond Iran's civil energy needs, and
accused the administration of ducking the problem from political expediency.

President Khatami, speaking on television on Sunday, stressed that Iran had
no intention of producing nuclear weapons. "The Islamic Republic is
determined to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes," he said.

But his speech amounted to a nuclear declaration of independence, outlining
a plan to undertake the entire nuclear fuel cycle, from mining the ore to
reprocessing the spent fuel after its use in a reactor.

The White House has denounced the Iranian nuclear project before as the
cover for a clandestine weapons programme, but it did not comment on the
announcement yesterday, and did not respond to requests for comment.

Edwin Lyman, head of the Nuclear Control Institute, a non-proliferation
watchdog, said: "Clearly the Bush administration can't deal with this right
now, as it needs Iranian help against Iraq

"It is a totally cynical policy now, where situations fester because of
political convenience, and I think the 'axis of evil' is becoming a
self-fulfilling prophecy."

He added: "The intention to reprocess and close the fuel cycle is
disturbing... There is no indication Iran has any economic justification for
it.

"Even in countries where there's an advanced nuclear industry it's totally
uneconomic, wasteful, dangerous. There is no doubt that it will be used as a
cover for making nuclear weapons."

The US and other western governments have been sceptical of the civilian
benefits of Iran's nuclear programme, given the country's vast gas and oil
reserves. But Iran says it has long sought to reduce domestic oil
consumption to free more oil for export, and some Iranian analysts say the
programme does have genuine civilian applications.

The primary motive for giving details of the programme seems to have been
avoiding any embarrassing revelations when International Atomic Energy
Agency inspectors arrive in a fortnight, Iranian analysts and diplomats
said.

"They know they can't move without being recognised. So it's better to come
out openly," a journalist said.

The head of the IAEA, Mohammed El Baradei, played down the suggestion that
extracting uranium would mean that Iran had embarked on developing a
full-scale nuclear weapons programme.

"The Iranians have always indicated that they are committed to a peaceful
nuclear programme," he said in Athens as he returned from Iraq to his
headquarters in Vienna.

It would be helpful if Iran were to sign an additional protocol allowing
more intrusive inspections of its nuclear programme, he said, but this
development was not new.

"We know that Iran has uranium... they know their obligation, that nuclear
material and nuclear facilities are subject to our safeguards."

He said he hoped to be able to answer questions about Iran's programme when
he went to Iran and inspected the new facilities later this month.

Iran has had a nuclear programme since the 80s. US pressure undermined its
attempt to secure partnerships with western European companies, but Russia
has agreed to help build a nuclear plant in the port of Bushehr, in
south-western Iran.

Moscow had assured the US that all the spent fuel from the plant will be
returned to Russia, but President Khatami's speech gave Iran the option of
holding on to it and reprocessing it.

David Albright, a nuclear analyst and head of the Institute for Science and
International Security, said: "This is a huge deal. If Iran is producing its
own fuel then its much harder for Russia to get it back."

Spent reactor fuel is usually 1% plutonium, which can be extracted.
Plutonium can be used in nuclear warheads.

Britain and the EU have urged Tehran to sign on to a "go-anywhere"
inspection regime, but so far it has declined, citing the refusal of other
countries in the region.

Conservatives in the Iranian government, wary of the growing US presence in
the region, may not be ready to discard the nuclear programme without
gaining something from Washington or western governments in return, analysts
say.