[A-List] Afghanistan: the blowback continues

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Afghanistan: The war gathers momentum
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
Asia Times, January 17 2003

KARACHI - A new round of carpet bombing and reinforcements of United States
troops is likely for Afghanistan as the writ of the administration of
President Hamid Karzai is under threat from a fierce guerrilla war that is
intensifying in the mountainous terrain of the cities and towns located in
the east of the country near the Pakistani border.

Given the pace of guerrilla activities, as the snow starts to melt towards
the end of March, the capital Kabul can expect to come under rocket and
missile attacks.

As the last remnants of the Taliban retreated from Afghanistan in early 2002
in the face of the advancing US-led forces and the Northern Alliance, there
was a widespread belief that they would quickly regroup and fight back.
However, except for a few isolated attacks on US and allies forces, the
victorious troops met with limited resistance.

This led US authorities to conclude that they had broken the back of the
Taliban and al-Qaeda network in Afghanistan. However, a strong showdown in
the middle of last year between US forces and the joint forces of the
Taliban and al-Qaeda under the command of Saifullah Mansoor made it clear to
the US command that the enemy, while down, was certainly not out.

And with the return of former Afghan premier and famed mujahid warlord
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar from exile in Iran into the fray in the second half of
the year, the situation changed dramatically. Many predicted that Hekmatyar
would meet a quick death, but as Asia Times Online has frequently written
(see sidebar), Gulbuddin's arrival in Afghanistan was to prove the turning
point for the Afghan guerrilla movement.

By November of last year, a number of significant missile and rocket attacks
all over Afghanistan bore testimony to this, and sent a resounding message
that the country was in for continued strife. And as the new year begins,
the indications are that the sporadic attacks will in time turn into a
full-fledged war.

Now, a new group calling itself the "Secret Army of Muslim Mujahideen" has
claimed responsibility for 50 raids on US forces and their allies in
Afghanistan. The claim appeared in Pashtu language pamphlets circulated in
the Pakistani border city of Peshawar at the weekend. The leaflets did not
disclose either the nationalities of its members or its operational base.

Sources in Waziristan Agency in Pakistan, however, maintain that several
strong commanders who resisted the Red Army in Afghanistan, including
Mansoor and Jalaluddin Haqqani, have made alliances with small warlords in
their areas and they could be the people behind the "secret force".

The pamphlets claimed responsibility for a number of attacks, including a
bomb explosion near the US embassy in Kabul, rocket attacks on the
headquarters of the International Security Assistance Force in Kabul, and
the ambush of US soldiers in Jalalabad.

The pamphlets, called shabnamay (night messages) among Afghans, are being
distributed in a very organized manner aimed at provoking a common Afghan
uprising against the presence of more than 8,000 US troops in the country.

To date, most of the guerrilla activity has taken place in the southern and
southeastern parts of Afghanistan, including Paktia, Paktika, Argon, Ghazni,
Kandahar, Zabal and Hilmand. There are clear signs that along with the
Taliban and the Hezb-i-Islami Afghanistan of Hekmatyar, al-Qaeda Arab
fighters are also active.

On Sunday, three rockets were fired at a military base of the US-led
coalition forces in Khost province, about 50 kilometers from Kabul, but no
casualties were reported. The rockets were launched from across the border
in Pakistan. The night before, another rocket had been fired at the same
base from east of Khost city, the capital of the province.

According to local radio reports, the coalition forces had recently seized
six rockets from the border area near the place from where the rockets were
launched. The names of Abu Zubeda and Abu Abdullah, high-ranking members of
al-Qaeda, were written on the shells of those rockets, a local security
officer said.

Talking to Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity, a prominent tribal
elder of South Waziristan Agency told of his experience involving a US camp
near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border at Mashadat Kot, about three kilometers
inside Afghanistan. The elder said that he personally had met US officers in
the camp and chatted to them for about an hour. But on December 22 the camp
came under heavy rocket, mortar and missile attack. "I cannot swear that
many US men were killed, but I visited the place after I heard of the event.
The camp was totally destroyed, there was no sign of life there."

There have now been confirmed reports that anti-US forces have also
established a mobile radio station that regularly broadcasts calls for jihad
against the US forces. The transmissions are mostly heard in Khost and
Paktia.

A Wazir tribesman who is in close contact with the Taliban militia
commented, "Arms and ammunition are not a problem in this kind of war. The
basic thing is public support, which the present movement has through the
distribution of pamphlets, audio cassettes and radio broadcasts. The Taliban
and other anti-US elements have retained this support.

"As far as heavy ammunition is concerned, the mujahideen fought a guerrilla
war against the Russian army in the 1980s. Most of the heavy weapons they
acquired were the ones that they grabbed in fights from the Russian army.
The same weapons were then used against the Russian soldiers. The same
strategy has been devised in the present guerrilla warfare against the US -
the mujahideen will grab US weapons and use them against the US forces," the
tribesman said.