[A-List] UK ideological state apparatus: The Guardian

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

I'll spare you the vast coverage given to an extensive interview with Tony
in today's Guardian -- capping a week of slavish adoration and image
enhancement for the "news" paper. Just to top it all here's another of the
regular series of anti-Brown articles which, however truthful, are
gloriously selective in their portrayal.

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Brown's figures start to unravel

Charlotte Denny
Friday December 20, 2002
The Guardian

Analysts believe Gordon Brown will struggle to meet his revised forecasts
for public borrowing after figures yesterday showed the government dipped
steeply into the red last month.

Public borrowing totalled £6.7bn in November, £2.8bn higher than the same
month last year, and well above market expectations.

A higher than expected deficit would be a further embarrassment for Mr Brown
who has been forced to tear up his April forecast of an £11bn deficit. In
last month's pre-budget report he predicted borrowing this year would reach
£20bn.

With two thirds of the financial year gone, the chancellor has already
stacked up a deficit of £17bn, and analysts said he would need a big
improvement in public finances over the final part of the year to meet last
month's gloomier forecast.

"Unless revenues grow more quickly, or spending more slowly, borrowing this
year will be even higher than the pre-budget report predicted last month,"
said Carl Emmerson, an expert on the public finances at the Institute for
Fiscal Studies.

John Hawksworth, analyst at PricewaterhouseCoopers, said the full-year
2002/03 deficit was likely to come in at about £23bn. "The budget looks like
presenting another uncomfortable choice for the chancellor -does he stick to
his PBR forecasts and risk more criticism from independent economists, or
does he admit he got it wrong again?"

Taxes continue to come in lower than Mr Brown is expecting while government
spending is rising at a faster pace than he forecast last month.

A larger than expected deficit would force the chancellor to raise taxes to
meet his self-imposed fiscal rules. "It depends whether the extra borrowing
is due to temporary weakness in the economy as Mr Brown's rules are assessed
over the ups and downs of the economic cycle," said Mr Emmerson. He
questioned whether corporation tax revenues, one of the weakest performing
areas, would bounce back as sharply next year as Mr Brown expected.

The chancellor is relying on consumer spending continuing to power the
economy until the battered corporate sec tor recovers, but retailers are
braced for a gloomier than expected Christmas after government figures
showed a sharp slowdown in retail spending last month.

Sales rose by a tiny 0.1% in November, according to the office for national
statistics. Wet weather dampened sales, analysts said, while a sharp rise in
clothing and footwear prices last month appears to have turned customers
away. "Consumers are not throwing in the towel but the numbers do highlight
just how price sensitive shoppers are becoming," said Simon Rubinsohn, chief
economist at Gerrard. "Any attempt to push up prices is being met by a
buyers' strike."