Re: [A-List] Pakistan: more stable than you think

["Tariq Mahmood" <zaogir@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Dear Michael,

I scribbled a few lines about the current happenings in Pakistan. I am
sending these and hope it may help.

Tariq
----------------------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>
To: <a-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 2:51 PM
Subject: Re: [A-List] Pakistan: more stable than you think

 Tariq writes:

 Dear Michael Keaney,

 I read your article of 10/10 today wherein you have given your views about
the likely outcome of election of October 10. Do you not feel to rewrite the
views afresh now when more than a months has since passed.

 Tariq
 Peshawar, Pakistan

 Tariq

 As you can see the article was written by Anatol Lieven, not me. Since I
know much less about Pakistan than even Anatol Lieven, it would be much more
productive for everyone if, for example, you were to give us your own
thoughts about the situation there, about Lieven's analysis, or anything
else you consider important.

 Best,

 Michael

+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Current Politics and MMA Phenomenon

The half a dozen religio-political parties were there on the political
horizon for more than half a century and none of them made more than a
visible dent in the political scene in the country. In various till the
last, total votes polled by all such groups hardly reached two figures of
percentage of the total. Again they mostly cancelled each other's effect
than boosting. The net result was usually a sorry situation in the national
parliament. Only once the JUI, as a consequence of 1970 election could
muster to form governments in two provinces in coalition with ANP, their
ideological rivals. These governments did not last long.

The religious parties were often divided along sectarian lines - the common
sects of Deoband, Barelvi, Ahle Hadith and Ahle Tashi'. Each sect developed
a political organisation to further their interests. Later and due to
differences of personalities involved each of the sectarian political
parties got split into two, gibing us a minimum of eight groups, each
carrying name of a leading personality as its title.Jamaat-e-Islami though
not ascribing to any of the said sects had emerged as a sect by itself.
Taking the total to nine.

Hostility among religious parties was more sever than with secular groups
and its intensity more so between political groups within a sect.This
situation had greatly undermined their political capital and image among the
people.

During the military regime of General Musharraf and due to, but not entirely
for its pro-US policies especially regarding Afghanistan the
religio-political parties saw the blade in water and decided to join
together on one platform. They have formed the Mutahidda Majlis-e-Amal
(United Council for Action) MMA. Opinions vary in granting credit for the
unity but many agree in naming Maulana Noorani, Qazi Hussain Ahmad and
Allama Sajid Naqvi for it. They also agree in not excluding Maulanas Fazal
and Sami, being the leaders of by far the largest group of followers,
Deobandis.

In October elections the result of the unity has been very dramatic and have
surprised many who some how do not read between the lines. The return of
religious groups in large numbers has posed a new phenomenon. Many analysts
are reading different reasons for this change and are forecasting its
consequences of varying degrees. Some consider it just a knee-jerk reaction
to the recent happenings in Afghanistan and the policies of military rulers
in Islamabad. This view is amply supported by concentration of MMA's
returned strength in the two provinces adjoining Afghanistan. Others view
the links farther away from regional frontiers. However, reasons for the
change are deeper and more complex than that. There are indications the
scope and effects of it are also likely to be of wider dimensions lasting
nature.

When the relious groups started to rust each other and demonstrated a common
strategy, common people responded with enhanced confidence in them. It
appears like others MMA itself was surprised as is evident from their
initial wavering policies. But they have since steadied, are presenting a
more or less principled stand and try to do their topaper any cracks
appearing in their edifice. Fazal and Qazi, the two strong men in MMA seem
to have divergent views and interests but so far have avoided to bring forth
the proverbial dirty linen out.

So is the stand of MAMA on the minimum agenda of having un adulterated
democracy, keeping the parliament a supreme law-making body and no meddling
with 1973 Constitution, announced loud and clear. And as yet the are
sticking to it. In fact the maulvies who carried a reputation for bickering
on trivial and blamed for opportunism have been able to put up a better
facade than more experienced groups like PPP, PML (N) and ANP.

A usual failing with political groups is being the domain of a dominant
dynasty - Bhuttos, Sharifs and Wali Bagh group. Political parties seldom
hold elections within their own ranks, party offices are allotted through
selection and basic principles of democracy are thrown out of the window
when it comes to dealing back home. Over tome electioneering has become a
game of the wealthy. Wealth which is squandered during election is soon
replenished when the elected assume power. Thus power, wealth and corruption
are the dominant characters of the socio-political environment today in the
land.

Emergence of religious groups in the Muslim world is not un-connected
movements. These are reaction to the world domination by oppressive forces
and given the better opportunities of world people agreeing on common
agendas due to enhanced means of communication there is a greater likelihood
that humanity may find common leadership and agreed goals.

Within Pakistan the MMA should be expected to provide such a leadership the
national level since they have emerged from the low-middle economic strata
and are educated compared to others. As yet they have demonstrated more
mature and sane attitude. If they are able to present good governance in
NWFP, the one province where they have an opportunity to rule unchallenged
they might find elections as no problem in the future. Good governance
should mean the collective good reaching the most miserable ones, no
trickle-down trickery will work any more. MMA is well advised to ensure:
a] Gaps between the rich and poor is narrowed to the minimum.
b] Opportunities for wrong earning and exploitation of the deprived  are
controlled.
c] A reasonable minimum standard of living is guaranteed to all.
d] Those in power are obliged to live at a level that is available to the
poorest in the land. Thereby a culture of austerity will be ushered into
vogue.
e] Higher moral values are encouraged against the yearning for plenty.

Tariq Mahmood
Hassan Garhi, Peshawar
Phone: 091-246950
Date: November 04, 2002