[A-List] Afghanistan: the blowback continues

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

All the world's playing field
By Hooman Peimani
Asia Times, November 30 2002

Following the NATO summit meeting in Prague last week, US President George W
Bush paid a short visit to Russia on November 22 during which President
Vladimir Putin raised concern about the American choice of allies in its war
on terrorism.

In particular, he expressed doubts about the reliability and sincerity of
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan for that purpose. The two countries rank low on
the Russian list of friends for their role as the two main supporters of the
Taliban, whose rule over Afghanistan posed major security concerns for
Russia and its regional friend and ally, Iran. In pursuit of its national
interests since September 11, the American government's elevation of
Pakistan's regional status has enabled the Pakistanis to follow their
regional objectives aggressively. Those objectives are in conflict with the
economic and strategic interests of Russia in South and West Asia.

While targeting Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, Putin's remarks reflected the
growing dissatisfaction of Russia with the sudden expansion of American
political and military presence in the mentioned regions over the past year.
Justified under the pretext of fighting terrorism, this development has
clearly demonstrated the United States' plan to achieve its certain
strategic goals apart from fighting Afghanistan-based terrorist groups. In
particular, the American government's choice of allies in its anti-terrorist
campaign has raised doubt about the weight of anti-terrorist objective in
the American expanded presence in South and West Asia.

Regarding the Saudis, Putin implied at least a degree of moral
responsibility in the September 11 terrorist attacks on the US. Thus, he
reminded Bush about the involvement of 19 Saudi citizens in the attacks and
about the financial support provided to al-Qaeda by some Saudis. However,
his main target seemed to be Pakistan.

Referring to its role in the war on terrorism, Putin expressed concern about
the sincerity and the long-term objectives of its military regime now armed
with nuclear weapon. Respectively, he made ironic remarks about the
suspected whereabouts of Osama bin Laden "somewhere between Afghanistan and
Pakistan" and expressed concern about the unpredictable behavior of the
Pakistani military "armed with weapons that exist in Pakistan, including
weapons of mass destruction". Although he did not mention it directly, his
remarks revealed Russia's dissatisfaction with the American-orchestrated
developments in South and West Asia, including Afghanistan, in the
post-Taliban era. Despite its direct role in the creation of the Taliban,
the Americans' promotion of Pakistan as the front-line state in the war on
terrorism has increased the Pakistani government's ability to pursue its
national interests in those regions. In most cases, the latter are at odds
with the Russian interests and those of its regional friends and allies,
Iran and India.

In this regard, a blatant example is the American-backed revival of the
shelved gas pipeline project connecting Turkmenistan to Pakistan via
Afghanistan. In early 2002, the three countries on the pipeline route signed
a trilateral agreement for its construction to meet Pakistan's gas
requirements and to use that country for the export of Turkmen gas to third
countries. The implementation of the agreement requires a fully stable and
peaceful Afghanistan, which is yet to be created. However, if it happens,
Russia will certainly lose its practical monopoly of Turkmenistan's gas
exports via its gas pipeline network. For Russia, the result will be a
significant loss of revenue and a sharp decline of political influence in
Turkmenistan. A successful Pakistani export route for gas may well lead to
its use by Kazakhstan for its oil exports, now mainly conducted via the
Russian oil pipeline network. The consequence for Russia will be the same as
in Turkmenistan's case. If both scenarios come true, the expected sharp
decrease in Russia's role in Central Asia's energy exports will certainly
reduce its political influence in that neighboring region.

Beside the energy export issue, Russia is also unhappy about the political
developments in Afghanistan since the Taliban's fall. Contrary to
expectations, post-Taliban Afghanistan is neither peaceful nor stable.
Lacking any meaningful control over its country, the Afghan central
government is even unable to ensure the safety of its capital, Kabul. The
civil war is over, but the persistence of a chaotic situation conducive to
instability, including war, has created a suitable ground for the rise of
all the evils associated with the civil war. In the Taliban era, the latter
endangered the security of Russia and all Afghanistan's neighbors, excluding
Pakistan, in one form or another.

Instead of a promise of a better future for the Afghans and security for
those regional countries suffered from the Taliban rule, certain factors in
the post-Taliban era have laid the ground for the restoration of the
environment conducive to the rise of Taliban-type groups in Afghanistan.
They include the absence of a fully-functional central government, the
reemergence of warlords all over the country, the expansion of turf wars
between and among them, the growth of lawlessness, and the failure of the
Americans and their allies in uprooting the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

As was the case in the Taliban era, Pakistan will be the main beneficiary of
such a situation, while Russia, Iran and the Central Asian states will have
to pay the price. Through direct or indirect backing of rival warlords,
mainly the Pashtun ones, of whom many enjoy American backing, Pakistan is
seeking to promote its national interests damaged heavily when its protege,
the Taliban, collapsed. Dominating Afghanistan is important for Pakistan
both for its own merits and also for its providing to the Pakistanis access
to landlocked Central Asia, where the latter hope to expand economically and
politically. This is a region where Russia has sought to reestablish its
power and influence since the early 1990s.

Without a doubt, the growth of the American presence and the expansion of
Pakistan's influence with the American backing in South and West Asia are
bad news for Russia and its regional friends and allies. Given the
increasing concern in Russia and also in Iran and China regarding the
long-term implications of the growing American presence in their proximity,
and India's anxiety about the political and economic expansion of its
archenemy, Pakistan, these regional powers are likely to seek closer
cooperation, including the formation of implicit or explicit alliances, to
deal with the rising threat in their proximity, an objective that none could
do on its own.

Dr Hooman Peimani works as an independent consultant with international
organizations in Geneva and does research in international relations.