[A-List] Turkey: "No to imperialist aggression. No to war."

[Sabri Oncu <soncu@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

But:

"Observers say Ankara, struggling to overcome deep financial
crisis with the help of billions of dollars of International
Monetary Fund loans, will almost certainly cooperate at least by
offering use of airbases and airspace."

Two articles follow. The first one reports 5,000 demonstrators
againts the war in Iraq. Turkish daily Cumhuriyet reports tens of
thousands in several cities. There are a few friends among the
organizers but I personally know that they are too weak to make
any difference.

Sabri


+++++++++++++

01 Dec 2002 12:48
Thousands of Turks demonstrate against war in Iraq


ISTANBUL, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Thousands of people in NATO-member
Turkey marched through Istanbul on Sunday to say no to war in
neighbouring Iraq which Turkey fears could spread turmoil in the
region and wreak economic havoc.

Turkey is one of Washington's closest allies in the region and
already allows U.S. warplanes to fly from an airbase in the south
to patrol a no-fly zone over northern Iraq set up after the 1991
Gulf War.

Washington is expected to ask for more help from Turkey if it
goes to war to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein over
allegations that Baghdad has weapons of mass destruction.

Turkey's new government, elected in November, has been at pains
to allay suspicions about its Islamist roots and pledge its
commitment to the strategic alliance with Washington and Turkey's
European Union membership bid.

Opinion polls show a majority of Turks do not want Turkey to
participate in a war in Iraq. Around 5,000 people gathered in
Istanbul on Sunday, chanting and carrying placards saying "No to
imperialist aggression" and "No to war".

But observers say Ankara, struggling to overcome deep financial
crisis with the help of billions of dollars of International
Monetary Fund loans, will almost certainly cooperate at least by
offering use of airbases and airspace.

Washington was instrumental in advocating Turkey's latest $16
billion IMF loan package and is considering another financial aid
package to compensate Turkey for likely losses in the event of a
war.

Turkey says it lost more than $30 billion since the Gulf War in
lost trade with Iraq, one of its main trading partners before
U.N. sanctions were imposed.

U.S. Undersecretary of State Marc Grossman is due to visit Turkey
on Tuesday with Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz as part
of a tour of European countries to discuss Iraq.

U.N weapons inspectors resumed their work in Iraq last week under
a tough new U.N. resolution that gives Baghdad one last chance to
disarm or face a war. Iraq denies it has weapons of mass
destruction.

Article at:
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L01278076

+++++++++++

New York Times

November 28, 2002
U.S. Lobbying for Turks' Aid in Move on Iraq
By MICHAEL R. GORDON


WASHINGTON, Nov. 27 ? The Bush administration is mounting a major
effort to enlist the support of the new Islamic government of
Turkey for a northern front if there is a war with Iraq, senior
officials said today.

As part of that effort, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D.
Wolfowitz plans to leave on Sunday for a round of consultations
in Ankara, Brussels and London. Turkey is his most important
stop.

Bush administration officials say that the United States could
defeat Iraq without Turkey's support. But they argue that an
American military campaign would be more decisive and could be
executed more quickly if Iraq's military had to fight on several
fronts.

They also say that the Pentagon needs to dispel uncertainty over
Turkey's role in a potential conflict. There have been, in
effect, two military plans by the United States: one that assumes
extensive Turkish cooperation in a military campaign to dislodge
Saddam Hussein's government and one that does not. Senior
American officials said Washington was running out of time to
settle its northern front strategy because they considered it
unlikely that the Iraqi government would comply with United
Nations inspections.

American officials did not say precisely what role they would
like Turkey to play in a conflict. Turkey has air bases that the
United States would like to use to mount bombing attacks. It also
has a large army.

Asked if the United States wanted Turkish ground forces to
participate in an attack, a senior administration official said
Washington believed it would be advantageous to confront Iraq
with as potent a military threat from the north as possible.

Mr. Wolfowitz's trip is the first of a series of high-level
visits that are intended to elicit international support for the
Bush administration's tough policy on Iraq. Some of these trips,
like Mr. Wolfowitz's, are intended to form a military coalition.
Others are intended to secure political support from nations like
China that do not plan to join the fray but whose views are
important.

The trips will be carried out during a crucial period. On Dec. 8,
Iraq is required to submit an account of its programs to develop
chemical, biological and nuclear arms and the missiles that might
carry them. There are likely to be different interpretations of
whether the declaration is adequate, and the United States wants
to maintain a tough stand.

Besides the Wolfowitz trip, visits will be made to other
countries in Europe, Asia and the Middle East by Richard L.
Armitage, the deputy secretary of state; Stephen J. Hadley, the
deputy national security adviser to President Bush; and Douglas
J. Feith, the under secretary of defense for policy. Marc
Grossman, the under secretary of state for political affairs,
will accompany Mr. Wolfowitz on his trip and then proceed with
his own itinerary.

Mr. Wolfowitz's first stop will be Brussels, where he will meet
with NATO ambassadors. The Bush administration would like NATO
members to join in Mr. Bush's coalition of nations that are able
and willing to confront Iraq.

It also wants NATO to reaffirm its intention to support Turkey,
which is a member of the military alliance, in the event of a war
with Iraq. Article V of the NATO Charter stipulates that an
attack on one member is to be considered an attack on all.
Washington would like this provision to be invoked if there is a
war with Iraq.

Mr. Wolfowitz will also visit London, which is the staunchest of
the American allies on Iraq. The British are expected to
contribute military forces for an invasion of Iraq.

But Turkey is the critical stop. The Bush administration has
carried out extensive consultations with Turkey about a potential
confrontation with Iraq. Vice President Dick Cheney visited
Ankara in the spring, but the election victory by the Justice and
Development Party, whose leadership has strong Islamic views, has
made it necessary for the Bush administration to start from
scratch. (Before its victory, the party indicated that it would
leave any decision on Iraq to Turkey's military.)

Bush administration officials are using several arguments to try
to persuade the Turks to support and participate in an offensive.
First, they argue that the war will be over more quickly and as a
result, there will be less economic disruption if Turkey joins in
the attack. Many neighboring states are willing to support an
offensive if it is relatively brief and decisive and if civilian
casualties are low. What they fear is a long, drawn-out conflict.

Washington is also arguing that the threat of military force will
encourage Mr. Hussein to comply with the demands of United
Nations weapons inspectors, though some senior Bush
administration officials privately believe that Iraqi compliance
is highly unlikely.

Washington is offering tangible benefits to Turkey. The Bush
administration has indicated that it is prepared to give Turkey
economic aid to compensate it for any losses it might sustain as
a result of a Iraq war. Just how much is a matter of negotiation.

More generally, Washington argues that Turkey is likely to
benefit economically if a new government is installed in Iraq and
trade with Iraq expanded. Washington has also been backing
Turkey's efforts to join the European Union.

The European Union is holding a meeting in Copenhagen on Dec. 12
to discuss Turkey's potential membership. Mr. Bush recently
called Denmark's prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, to
support Turkey's efforts to join the European Union. The Bush
administration has also made it clear that it will not support a
separate Kurdish state in northern Iraq, a concern for Turkey,
which has its own restive Kurdish minority.

A senior administration official said he thought Washington would
be able to satisfy Turkey's concerns. Still, the Turkish
leadership has been contending with an array of issues, including
its bid to join the European Union and a plan that Secretary
General Kofi Annan of the United Nations has proposed to resolve
the dispute over Cyprus, which Turkey has partly occupied since
1974.

During the 1991 Persian Gulf war, the United States carried out
airstrikes from air bases in Turkey. Search-and-rescue teams were
also based there.

Since the end of the war, American and British warplanes have
used air bases in Turkey to patrol the no-flight zone in northern
Iraq.

Article at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/28/international/middleeast/28TURK
.html