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                           HAITI PROGRES
              "Le journal qui offre une alternative"

                      * THIS WEEK IN HAITI *

                  November 27 - December 3, 2002
                          Vol. 20, No. 37

CLASS ANALYSIS OF A CRISIS
by Kim Ives

This past week saw dueling demonstrations between thousands of
pro- and anti-government marchers in Haiti. Political tension,
violence and lawlessness are growing. Telephone calls and
Internet chat rooms are filled with rumors and speculation about
how events will unfold.

To understand the nature of the crisis shaking Haiti today, it is
essential to understand the class forces at play.

The destabilization campaign against the Haitian government is
being led by the George W. Bush faction of the U.S. bourgeoisie,
which is arch-reactionary and hostile to regimes which even pay
lip-service to a progressive agenda, as Aristide once did. Two
conservative retreads from the previous Bush administration,
Undersecretary of State for the Americas Otto Reich and
Ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS) Roger
Noriega, are spearheading the campaign to uproot Aristide, whom
they charge is becoming an "illegitimate president" of a "pariah
state," even as other OAS states stand by wringing their hands at
the plight of the besieged president.

Meanwhile, the majority of the Haitian bourgeoisie, as
represented by the Association of Industries of Haiti (ADIH), the
Chamber of Commerce and of Industry of Haiti (CCIH) and, more
globally, the Civil Society Initiative (ISC), has allied itself
with the forces of its age-old rival, the landed oligarchy or
"grandons," whose purest recent political manifestation was the
Duvalier dictatorship (1957-1986). The armed _expression_ of the
"grandons" under the Duvaliers was the Tonton Macoutes, who were
the eyes, ears, and fists of this class. The remnants and
descendants of this brutal corps live on in Haiti. Neo-
Duvalierist political representatives are often referred to, in
Haitian political parlance, as the Macoute sector.

This "Macouto-Bourgeois" alliance is embodied in the Democratic
Convergence opposition front, which is funded by Washington's
National Endowment for Democracy (NED). Social democratic groups
like the Struggling People's Organization (OPL) of Gérard Pierre-
Charles, the National Progressive Revolutionary Party (PANPRA) of
Serge Gilles, and the National Congress of Democratic Movements
(KONAKOM) of Micha Gaillard and Victor Benoit represent the
bourgeois current, which favors taking power through political
wrangling facilitated by the OAS and Washington's diplomatic
muscle.

The Macoute current favors the "zero option," code for the
violent overthrow of Aristide. The Mobilization for National
Development (MDN) of Hubert DeRonceray, the Christian Movement
for a New Haiti (MOCHRENA) of Pastor Luc Mesadieu and,
increasingly, the Democratic Unity Confederation (KID) of Evans
Paul are the foremost representatives of this tendency.

Despite Washington's backing, the Convergence has very little
support among the masses across Haiti. But two weeks ago, it
found collaboration from former soldiers, as represented by
former putschist colonel Himmler Rébu. Aided by intense media
coverage and increasingly desperate living conditions, the
Convergence/Rébu alliance was able to pull several thousand
people in its train during a Nov. 17 march in Cap Haïtien (see
Haïti Progrès, Vol. 20, No. 36, 11/20/02).

Since his emergence as a firebrand priest from Port-au-Prince's
La Saline slum, Aristide has had as his principal base Haiti's
growing lumpen proletariat. The ranks of this dispossessed,
desperate class have swelled as falling prices for coffee, cocoa
and sugar, cheap food dumping from the U.S., and neoliberal
reforms have driven peasants off the land and into Haiti's
miserable slums. Aristide's populist sway over this volatile
class is the essence of his power, and it is precisely what the
Haitian ruling class fears and U.S. officials distrust.

Aristide has attempted to sell himself to Washington as the
intermediary who can control and reign in this explosive
underclass in exchange for a few crumbs from the ruling class
table. Hence he periodically whips up the lumpen masses, and then
soothes them, as a demonstration of his power.

On the other hand, he has also sought to reassure the U.S. and
Haitian ruling classes by integrating businessmen and
Duvalierists into leading positions in his government and party,
pushing it even more to the right. The Lavalas Family party has
sold off state industries, begun the sale of Haitian territory
for free-trade zones, cracked down on union organizers, and
acquiesced to treaties allowing unilateral U.S. penetration of
Haitian territory.

While the Clinton administration was willing to gamble on using
Aristide to control Haiti, the Bush administration is not. On the
contrary, they have counter-attacked. Working through the OAS,
Washington has pushed through two resolutions which compel
Aristide to arrest the popular organization leaders which
effectively coordinate the slum masses into a political force.
Aristide is being to forced to saw off the branch on which he
sits.

By blocking some $500 million in international aid and loans to
Haiti, Bush has worked to discredit and trap Aristide, who made
rosy campaign promises to the masses now suffering and hungry as
never before. Disillusionment with Aristide is growing as he
fails to deliver.

Meanwhile, other political forces have begun to emerge. For
years, the National Popular Party (PPN) has focused its
organizing in the Haitian peasantry, which is still Haiti's
majority. In May and October, the PPN organized two mass marches
in Port-au-Prince and Cap Haïtien to propose a "popular
alternative" to the Convergence and Lavalas Family (see Haïti
Progrès, Vol. 20, No. 8, 5/8/02 and Vol. 20, No. 32, 10/23/02).

The Convergence may rend into rival factions as the crisis
matures. Already, one hard-liner, Leslie Manigat of the Assembly
of Progressive National Democrats (RNDP), broke away earlier this
year from the Convergence because of its continuing negotiations
with the Lavalas Family. Tensions are likely to grow as
Washington, ultimately, decides whether to try OAS-controlled
elections next year or the "zero option" sooner to remove
Aristide and his party from power.

It is ironic, but historically predictable, that the bourgeoisie
is collaborating with former soldiers and Macoutes. In 1987, the
neo-Duvalierist sector, working through and with the Haitian
Army, massacred Haitian voters to block the election dreams of
the bourgeoisie, united at that time in the "Group of 57." The
bourgeoisie may come to rue today's alliance. "The Macoutes never
share power with anybody," the PPN's Secretary General Ben Dupuy
warned in a Nov. 21 press conference.

Similarly, Aristide's decline has resulted from his foolish
notion that he could somehow appease Washington through
concessions. He cannot, a lesson Nicaragua's Sandinistas learned
during the 1980s.

Aristide's party will likely provide little support or defense as
the crisis grows, and it may also fracture. Many of the Lavalas
Family's elected officials are archetypal petty bourgeois
opportunists, intent only on snagging a government post with
which to enrich themselves through corruption or personal
projects like radio stations, bus lines, or supermarkets.

Unfortunately for Washington, it has no viable alternative to
Aristide in Haiti and no Haitian Army (disbanded by Aristide in
1994) through which to make a coup, as was done in 1991. The only
standing military force on the island is the 24,500-man Dominican
Army, to which the U.S. is now sending 20,000 M-16s as part of a
multimillion dollar military aid package (see Haïti Progrès, Vol.
20, No. 36, 11/20/02). Some 1000 U.S. soldiers will also be
stationed in the Dominican Republic, supposedly for training
purposes. Most certainly, both U.S. and Dominican forces will be
poised for a military intervention into Haiti if and when the
moment comes. Ironically, this scenario looms as Haiti prepares
to celebrate the bicentennial anniversary of its Jan. 1, 1804
independence.

Despite this ominous outlook, the Haitian people have managed to
foil Washington's best laid plans repeatedly over the past 16
years since the fall of the Duvalier regime. Whatever unfolds in
the weeks ahead, the Bush administration and its Haitian allies
can expect fierce resistance from a nation and a generation which
has learned many lessons and shed many illusions on its march
toward democracy and independence.

All articles copyrighted Haïti Progrès, Inc. REPRINTS ENCOURAGED
Please credit Haïti Progrès.

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