[A-List] Germany: political crisis

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Pop tune catches mood of betrayal for German voters
By Haig Simonian
Financial Times: November 13 2002

Avril Lavigne and Atomic Kitten watch out. When Germany's next pop music
charts come out on Saturday, a burly newcomer looks set to elbow aside the
current number one and number two hits.

Der Steuersong (The Tax Song) is expected to take this week's charts by
storm, with 160,000 CDs already distributed and a further 100,000 on order.
Sung to the tune of the The Ketchup Song, the Spanish summertime hit, a
voice surprisingly akin to that of re-elected Chancellor Gerhard Schröder
teases listeners on how he sold them down the river.

The lyrics, written and sung by Schröder mimic Elmar Brandt, are strong
enough. The video is tougher still, with a smug, cigar-smoking Spitting
Image-style puppet bragging about having hoodwinked voters.

The song's popularity stems from the fact that it catches the popular mood.
Since narrowly retaining power on September 22 Mr Schröder has stunned
electors with tax rises and subsidy cuts to plug huge budget shortfalls.
Pension and health insurance contributions are also going up, while
internationally Germany is facing a formal reprimand from the European
Commission for breaching the budgetary rules for the single-currency
eurozone.

The EU procedure is particularly galling for many Germans, persuaded to
forsake the D-Mark only after reassurance from their leaders that effective
sanctions would punish ill-disciplined partners unable to keep their
finances in check.

Public frustration has emerged in an outpouring of protest this week. Berlin
has been paralysed as builders, dental technicians and health workers
separately took to the streets to protest against cuts. The opposition
Christian Democrats have had a field day. "People have been tricked as never
before and people are disappointed as never before," said Angela Merkel, the
party leader, at this week's conference.

"This has been the biggest electoral fraud in German political history,"
says Michael Glos, the parliamentary leader of Bavaria's Christian Social
Union and a close lieutenant of Edmund Stoiber, the unsuccessful candidate
for chancellor. Political analysts agree that the mood has swung further and
faster than after any previous election, even allowing for the closeness of
September's outcome. "It is very extreme for opinion to shift so soon," says
Dieter Roth of the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen research group. "Governments
often experience a drop in support after elections. That happened notably
with Helmut Kohl in 1990. But it seems even more marked this time."

Manfred Güllner of the Forsa opinion research company agrees: "People have
been shocked by the depth of the crisis. And the coalition has made matters
worse by squabbling and not communicating properly."

The sense of bewilderment and, for some, betrayal has triggered speculation
on how much ministers knew before polling day. Barely a week after the
elections, for example, Hans Eichel, the finance minister, warned that
Germany might breach the 3 per cent deficit ceiling. Mr Eichel's decision
soon after to revise his growth forecast for next year from 2.5 to 1.5 per
cent also seemed an uncanny coincidence.

Mr Eichel claims he could not have acted sooner, as the extent of the crisis
became fully apparent only after election day, and earlier warnings would
have been "irresponsible". Similar arguments are used by his colleagues to
explain why the risk of higher pensions and health insurance premiums were
also conveniently brushed aside during the campaign.

The biggest surprise, however, has been the opposition's failure to exploit
the government's acute embarrassment. The speed and scale of the revelations
may partly have caught opposition politicians off-guard. All the parties
have been distracted by immediate post- election internal personnel changes.
Moreover, the liberal Free Democrats have been convulsed by a "slush fund"
scandal, while the voice of the former communist Party of Democratic
Socialism has been uncharacteristically muffled after being virtually
eliminated from parliament. But the hiatus may now be drawing to an end,
with the party conferences and internal realignments largely over. The
weight of emergency revenue-raising legislation will thrust parliament back
to centre-stage in the coming weeks.

While the government can count on its majority in the lower chamber, the
opposition's control of the Bundesrat, the upper parliamentary chamber where
the federal states are represented, promises fireworks. With two important
state elections due next February, the pressure will remain on Mr Schröder
well after Der Steuersong has left the charts.