[A-List] UK state: political realignment

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Interesting stuff from MacWhirter again. This time he thinks the unthinkable
and suggests the possibility of a new political party, something the subject
of past postings to the A-list. I had previously given the Conservatives
until the next election or the euro referendum, whichever came first. But
such is the apparent disarray and the crisis of legitimation that this is
causing that a new party of the "centre right" now looks like a distinct
possibility. Who knows, maybe MacWhirter has heard whispers of such a
project in the works, in the gentlemen's clubs frequented by those in know
and their journalist hangers-on. But the space for a David Owen-type party
exists and there would be no shortage of US financial backing, especially
now that Blair is committed, along with Sinn Fein, to the Good Friday
Agreement in Northern Ireland, whereas the UUP/DUP have been assiduously
courting the Bush administration, taking advantage of the IRA's faux pas in
getting caught in Colombia.


Is This The End Of The Tories?

Iain MacWhirter says with their options running out, perhaps it's time the
tories called it a day
The Sunday Herald, 10 November 2002

SPEAK to any Conservative MP right now and pretty soon he or she will to
turn to the Bush factor. Why, when the Republicans seem to be driving all
before them, can the British Conservatives do nothing right? What is the
lesson for the Tories of the US midterm elections?

Last week, the Republicans won a Congressional clean sweep, winning
majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives. Whatever you
think of George Bush no-one can deny that this is a huge achievement: the
first time in half a century that Republicans have done the double. It's
understandable that the Tories should be perplexed that British voters seem
immune to the right-wing tide that has swept America and has also been
toppling social democratic parties in Europe.

However, the lesson for the Tories, I'm afraid, may be that there is no
lesson. To paraphrase the the Clinton campaign's famous rhetorical answer:
it's the war, stupid. The Conservatives could emulate George Bush. But only
if Britain were were to suffer a massive terrorist atrocity, go to war with
a Middle East dictator and then ensure that 60% of the voters stay at home.
And even then they'd have to be already in government to benefit. The
Republican ascendancy is more apparent than real. Circumstances in the US
are uniquely propitious for a sitting President in a midterm election. Last
week's ballot wasn't a referendum on the economy or the President's
competence -- it was a referendum on American security.

So, in their present agonies over the IDS leadership, the British
Conservatives can derive little real comfort from last week's Democratic
rout. In Europe, the situation is a little more promising. The right has
been in the ascendant for most of the last decade in countries like France,
Holland, Austria, Denmark and even Germany, where the SDP is holding on by
its fingernails. Social democratic parties have been punished for being past
their sell-by date and bereft of ideas.

However, the unique character of the European right's progress isn't one the
Tories can easily emulate. Immigration and insecurity about terrorism have
been the driving forces behind the rise of the New Right. The late Pim
Fortuyn, Jsrg Haider, Jean Marie le Pen were the most obvious and sinister
examples of this trend. But the political right as a whole has benefited
from the climate of anxiety in the 'nervous Noughties'. This is not a road
the British Tories really want to travel.

Tony Blair has, anyway, been masterful in appropriating traditional Tory
themes of law and order to meet the needs of the times. All those
announcements about spot fines for young thugs, fast-track sentencing,
punishing parents and so on have conveyed the message that Labour really is
tough on crime. It's not all rhetoric either. The recent drive to cut street
crime in London has achieved considerable success. David Blunkett's
anti-asylum rhetoric, and in particular his egregious claim that white
schools are being 'swamped' by asylum-seeker children, has pulled the
populist rug from under Iain Duncan Smith. It's not been pretty --
especially for traditional Labour supporters -- but it has been effective.

Tony Blair's advisers are acutely aware of developments in America and the
continent of Europe. They made a conscious decision that they would not
allow the right to regain a foothold in Britain. The PM's enthusiasm for the
war against terrorism and his endorsement of the war against Iraq has been
part of the drive to head off the right. In standing firm against Saddam,
and against many on his own backbench, Tony Blair has narrowed the Tories'
options.

IDS has been criticised, by his own side, for failing to oppose the PM, but
really there was little he could do. It would have been hard indeed to have
sounded any more belligerent or pro-American. And it would not have made
much sense for him to try to outflank Labour on the left by appearing more
conciliatory over weapons inspections. That territory has been colonised by
Charles Kennedy. Now that the UN ducks are more or less in a row, it is even
more difficult for the Tories to quibble with Blair's diplomacy.

So, there is no getting away from it. Personality and leadership are central
to the Tories' predicament, as this column argued last week. My suggestion
that Kenneth Clarke was the only viable successor seems to have been borne
out by events. The Westminster rumour mill has been speaking of little else,
and we now have a real prospect of a leadership bid by Clarke with Michael
Portillo backing him. This would be the nearest the Tories are likely to get
to a 'dream ticket' -- a version of Labour's Hattersley-Kinnock leadership
team after 1983. But it may not be a ticket to government.

This is not to doubt Ken Clarke's many attributes. He has an unshakeable
conviction in his abilities and in destiny to lead. However, he has been out
of the front line now for five years. He is getting on and enjoys a
gloriously unhealthy life style. What kind of figure will he be likely to
cut at the next election against Blair ? A tired old man trying to relive
past glories against a younger, more vigorous incumbent?

In an age when appearances count far more than they should, Blair has a huge
'catwalk' advantage over Clarke. The fact that the former Chancellor has
also been enriching himself recently by promoting the tobacco industry might
also count against him. Modern Britain regards tobacco firms as merchants of
death, like arms dealers.

Of course, Michael Portillo could provide an element of (relatively)
youthful dynamism. His gay past may have counted against him among
60-something Tory activists, but it wouldn't damage him in the eyes of the
electorate. Indeed, it could be just the thing to demonstrate that the
Conservatives really have caught up with British social attitudes.

This is the area the Tories must work on. They have to ditch the image of
being moral authoritarians. It is no accident that last week's Tory
rebellion in the Commons against IDS was over a lifestyle issue -- gay and
unmarried adoption. That is where the fault line lies . Duncan Smith would
be incredibly stupid now to try to whip his party into defence of Section
28 -- the law that bans the teaching of homosexuality in schools.

IDS has been making the right noises about changing the party image. Theresa
May was only telling the truth when she said that they were still seen as
the nasty party. Unfortunately, the truth hurts. Margaret Thatcher's
astonishing failure to support IDS last week -- 'the party will survive, but
I don't know about him' -- shows how nasty the party has become as it tears
itself apart.

'Unite or die,' demanded IDS last week. Well, it is now possible that the
Conservatives might opt for the latter. The old guard like Norman Tebbit and
Thatcher might well prefer seeing the party they love being laid to rest
rather than see it turned into a party of sodomites -- to use Tebbit's term
of choice.

Can a party actually die? The Communists did. It is all very well
modernising, but if the basic philosophy has become an anachronism, might it
not be better to go quietly? The Tories won the cold war, but lost the
peace. Perhaps they would be better just to abandon the project. Devise a
new right-wing party. Trouble is, with New Labour in power, it would be
difficult to know where to start.