[A-List] Ecuador: Gutiérrez leads, but bactracks?

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Gutiérrez extends lead in Ecuador poll
By Nicholas Moss in Quito
Financial Times: November 6 2002

Lucio Gutiérrez, the Ecuadorean presidential candidate, has widened the lead
over rival Alvaro Noboa ahead of final elections on November 24.

Mr Gutiérrez's platform of fighting corruption, increasing competitiveness
and combating poverty is backed by 61 per cent of the Andean nation's
decided voters, according to the latest poll from Cedatos-Gallup.

His professed support for the rule of law, and his plans to attract
investment, set out on a trip to New York last week, have won support from
international investors.

Mr Gutiérrez, a former army colonel who led the coup that toppled President
Jamil Mahuad in January 2000, reassured analysts and investors they were not
facing the election of a radical leftwing leader.

His audience - including guests at two events hosted by CSFB and Deutsche
Bank - agreed that Mr Gutiérrez, who swapped his army fatigues for a suit
after October's presidential primaries, offered pragmatic ideas.

"He made a good impression. The ideas and objectives he expressed - reaching
a deal with the IMF, fighting corruption, establishing fiscal discipline are
very appropriate and refreshing to hear from an Ecuadorean politician," said
Lacey Gallagher, director of Latin American economics at CSFB.

But other analysts said the question was whether Mr Gutiérrez would be able
to transform those sentiments into a coherent economic plan and build
political support for it. His campaign has already demonstrated some skill
at forging consensus: uniting support from far-left politicians, the
political movement of Ecuador's indigenous minorities and the middle and
popular classes, which, above all, he sees as his constituency.

One hurdle is likely to be Congress, where the traditional parties, although
rejected by voters in the presidential race, won most seats. The largest
block, which selects the president of the 100-strong parliament, is formed
by the Social Christians' party, tied to the business elites of Guyaquil,
Ecuador's biggest city.