[A-List] Turkey: Stratfor Election Analysis

["Annewilliamson" <Annewilliamson@xxxxxxx>]

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                            S T R A T F O R

                    THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY

                        http://www.stratfor.com
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            05 November 2002

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Turkey: Islamic Party Victorious, but Boxed In

Summary

The Justice and Development Party (AK), a moderate Islamic-
affiliated group, dominated Turkey's national elections Nov. 3,
winning nearly two-thirds of the seats in parliament. While the
AK's challenge in simply forming a government will be small,
political realities abroad and at home will limit its room to
maneuver. The result -- for the next few months at least -- is
likely to be a moderate, stable, pro-Western government that
reluctantly will go along with U.S. war plans for Iraq. But it
will be a government that feels insecure, knowing of potential
hazards on all sides.

Analysis

Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AK) took a massive win in
Nov. 3 general elections, carrying 34.2 percent of the vote.
Since only one other party crossed Turkey's 10 percent threshold
for parliamentary representation, the AK will command 363 of the
550 seats in parliament, four short of the number needed to amend
the constitution.

But the AK is a party rooted in an Islamic past. If its leaders
fail to play their cards carefully, that fact could cut the new
government short. Turkey's secular-minded military has intervened
no fewer than four times since 1960 to oust Islamic-flavored
governments, the last time in 1998. In fact, the military already
has struck a pre-emptive blow against the AK: Its leader and
prospective prime minister, Tayyip Erdogan, has been barred by
court order from holding public office.

Just because AK has Islamic roots, however, does not mean that
any government it leads will be rife with radicals -- far from
it. In fact, the as-yet-unformed AK government likely will embark
on a broadly pro-Western agenda that will include acceptance of
U.S. war aims concerning Iraq.

Erdogan and other party leaders went to great lengths in the
weeks before and hours after the election to assure Europe and
the United States that their victory would not disrupt relations.
Equally soothing statements about commitments to secular
principles were directed at Turkish generals. Moreover, the party
has promised to stick to the International Monetary Fund's strict
regimen. Leaders also have made explicit pledges to continue the
efforts of previous governments to join the European Union.
Underscoring the desire to attain acceptance and calm nervous
Westerners, Erdogan's first foreign trip will be to Greece,
Turkey's traditional rival.

This is a relief to Brussels and Washington, neither of which has
any interest in seeing Turkey spin away in a financial maelstrom.
Ankara is critical to peacekeeping efforts in Afghanistan and the
Balkans, and it is the United States' most reliable regional
ally. But it would be wrong to conclude that the AK is being so
friendly simply because it wants to -- in many ways, the new
government will have little choice.

The AK inherits a wrecked economy, and its room for political and
economic maneuvering is worryingly small. The political
instability of past governments has done much to intensify the
country's current economic difficulties, and preliminary figures
suggest Turkey's GDP will contract this year in a manner similar
to last year's 6.5 percent decline. Only strong support from the
IMF has staved off catastrophe: Turkey so far has swallowed $28
billion in IMF assistance, and if that were to cease the economy
probably would collapse outright.

Two things are needed to ensure a meltdown doesn't occur. The
first -- which the AK's victory will provide -- is a majority
government capable of ruling decisively. The second -- and more
difficult to achieve -- is a set of domestic economic and foreign
policies that will keep IMF aid flowing until Turkey can get back
on its feet.

Hemmed In on All Sides

Despite its parliamentary majority, the AK-led government must
maneuver carefully or risk imploding.

First and most obvious, the party must keep Turkey's generals
convinced that the state's secular nature will not be threatened.
Not only does the military retain the will and capability
necessary to oust the AK, it also has a clear replacement in the
wings: the Republican People's Party (CHP), founded by Kemal
Ataturk. The CHP, the only other party now represented in
parliament, is equally pro-Western and secular.

Second, the AK must keep the United States happy or risk losing
IMF funding. That means party leaders must find common ground
with the United States on Iraq, despite their own misgivings
about the possibility that a Kurdish state could be formed. The
Kurdish issue tops the list of concerns for both the outgoing and
incoming governments: No Turkish leader wants to see an
independent Kurdistan on the state's southeastern border, for
fear that an only recently ended civil war -- which claimed more
than 30,000 lives -- could reignite. If anything, an Islamic
government likely would feel more strongly than its predecessor
about keeping a Kurdish state from forming; it was during the
last Islamic government that Turkey's military campaign against
Kurdish rebels turned most brutal.

If Ankara wants a say in Iraq's post-war settlement, it must play
a part -- however tangential -- in the U.S. war effort. That
means the new government likely will allow the United States to
use Turkish airspace for strikes, without letting its own forces
become embroiled in the war. The coming weeks should witness
furious interplay as Ankara and Washington hammer out an
agreement. Should relations begin to sour, the U.S. reaction will
be loud and clear: Ankara need look no further than debt-ridden
Buenos Aires to see how that would turn out.

The AK indeed appears different and more secular than any
previous "Islamic" party in Turkey, but if history is any guide,
its tenure ultimately will be cut short. At the end of the day,
the party simply will have very little room to maneuver. If it
adopts a practical foreign policy, it can count on firm support
from the military, the EU, the United States, the IMF and even
the opposition CHP. But should leaders push the political
envelope too far -- for example, by vacillating on Iraq or
promoting traditional Islamic causes -- any number of hazards
easily could cause the government's downfall. In fact, the
military even might step in if it suspects an AK action would
trigger Washington's hand.
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