[A-List] EU integration struggles: Franco-German axis

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Franco-German axis threatens Blair

Patrick Wintour, chief political correspondent
Wednesday October 30, 2002
The Guardian

President Jacques Chirac, a natural, charming blusterer, has never been slow
to find the right insult for a British prime minister. He famously called
Margaret Thatcher a housewife, and a brake on Europe. She hit back
describing him as Le Bulldozer.

But, until his accusations of Mr Blair's unprecedented rudeness, the
personal chemistry between Tony Blair and President Chirac has been good.
Whether their relationship will survive the current frostiness remains to be
seen, but the repercussions of an Anglo-French falling out may be heard
around Europe.

President Chirac seemed flustered as he went into the Friday afternoon
session of the EU enlargement summit in Brussels. He was seen arguing with
the Danish chair of the summit, and within an hour he was involved in a full
tilt row with Mr Blair. The British prime minister told President Chirac
that France, the self-appointed guardian of Africa, could no longer with a
clear conscience maintain a system of massive subsidies for French farmers.

Within 24 hours Downing Street was briefing the Sunday newspapers that they
had rowed. Some suspected that Downing Street had lifted the veil of secrecy
in order to dispel the suggestion that Mr Blair had been outmanouevred.

The French yesterday downplayed the row claiming it had been concocted for
Mr Blair's domestic audience. The French press made hardly any mention of
this great dispute.

Yet by last night the French were confirming that matters had escalated,
announcing that the Anglo-French summit billed for early December was to be
delayed.

However, this is not just a dispute between two large egos. For the past
decade or more, it has been the foreign office's great strategic goal to
dismantle the Franco-German motor that has dominated Europe since its
inception. To the frustration of the British, Spanish and Italians, Europe
was for too long a stitch-up between Helmut Kohl and Jacques Chirac, or his
predecessor Francois Mitterrand. As one government member said: "Kohl would
announce something, and a few minutes later, Chirac would say ' Je suis tout
à fait en accord avec la proposition du chancelier allemand .' And Jacques
Santer, then European commission president, would say 'these seem sensible
proposals' - and that was it."

The turning point was at the Nice summit in 2000, when Gerhard Schröder
asked why France assumed that Germany would always fall into line with its
proposals.

Since then, Mr Blair, using his international standing afforded to him by
his pivotal role with the US, has become more self-confident in Europe,
tilting closer to the Germans.He stuck his neck out, for instance, for Mr
Schröder during the German election campaign. To support him at a time when
the German leader was running an Iraq policy that was infuriating the US
required some explaining to George Bush. On his narrow re-election, Mr
Schröder duly conveyed his gratitude by rushing to visit Mr Blair.

Mr Schröder, in turn, had been absolutely furious with Mr Chirac for giving
his opponent Edmund Stoiber the legion d'honneur. It underlined, in British
eyes, the frostiness of the personal relations between Mr Schröder and Mr
Chirac, something that Britain regarded as a diplomatic opportunity.

So it was specially irritating to Mr Blair to find that the old habits of a
Franco-German pre-summit stitch up had returned last week. It was a deal in
which the French probably came out best and seemed to run against some of
the previous rhetoric of the Germany's agriculture spokesman Renate Kunast,
a prominent Green.

It was the manner of the deal, as much as its content that inflamed Mr
Blair. The prime minister's spokesman expressed Mr Blair's frustration
yesterday. He said: "The idea that there can be a pre-cooked deal at summits
with which others fall behind and roll over is not on. Those days are over."

But the deeper worry for Downing Street is that the spat over agriculture
may signify something deeper.

Some in Downing Street now fear the Franco-German motor is revving up again.
Mr Chirac and Mr Schröder are due to publish a new text on the future of
Europe in November, setting out their joint vision for Europe and
specifically the convention on the future of Europe. It will be an uneasy
moment for Mr Blair who has always tried to dispel the impression that the
EU is a Franco-German conspiracy.

In French circles, there is also resentful talk that the British are playing
hardball on the convention. The secretary to the convention Sir John Kerr,
and the chief government negotiator Peter Hain are said to be too dismissive
of other ideas, and insufficiently willing to look for a consensus.

Although there is support for the idea of a president of Europe, the French
and Germans believe the British want to reduce the European commission, the
EU's policy making branch, into mere administrators of the Council of
Ministers. That is something the Germans will not tolerate.

More worryingly, the Germans and the French are also adopting similar, if
not identical position on Iraq. This has left Mr Blair increasingly isolated
as the sole European leader willing to conduct a war in Iraq without UN
endorsement. Such an outcome would be a political nightmare for Mr Blair.

He along with the US state department was instrumental in persuading George
Bush to adopt the UN route. If the French continue to demand a second
resolution before war is authorised, and Mr Bush walks away from the UN, the
insults flowing across the English channel will make last week's froideur
look distinctly tame.