[A-List] UK state: political realignment

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

More Guardian mischief, simultaneously stoking the legitimation crisis as it
bewails it.


Rumours rife as Portillo on the prowl

Talk of possible leadership challenge sparked by the regular reappearance in
the Commons of Tory backbencher

Nicholas Watt, political correspondent
Wednesday October 30, 2002
The Guardian

In the corridors of Westminster, where Conservative MPs are anxiously
discussing the fate of their leader, an intriguing figure has popped up
again after nearly a year in the background.

Michael Portillo, who appeared to be more interested in making television
programmes about Wagner and Elizabeth I than in attending mundane House of
Commons debates, has suddenly become one of the Tories' most diligent MPs.

Backbenchers, who were cut dead by the unsuccessful leadership challenger
during his rare appearances at Westminster before the summer recess, now
find themselves greeted like long lost friends.

Mr Portillo's new-found appetite for the cut and thrust of the Commons - he
has questioned the prime minister in every Commons statement he has made
since the recess - is fuelling speculation that the wily operator is laying
the groundwork for an imminent leadership contest.

"It is interesting to see Portillo again," one Tory said of his daily
appearances in a new Commons seat in the back row of the Tory benches,
directly behind Iain Duncan Smith. "He actually engaged me in conversation
the other day and did not cut me off in his usually dismissive way."

Return to fray

Friends of Mr Portillo, who insisted on television recently that he was not
interested in the leadership, deny he is "limbering up". They say he is
fulfilling a private commitment to return to the fray after a year lying low
following his catastrophic performance in last year's leadership election.
His failure to secure the chairmanship of the Royal Opera House is said to
have persuaded Mr Portillo that his future lies in politics.

While the Portillo camp is keen to dampen speculation of a leadership bid,
his reappearance at Westminster does coincide with feverish speculation
about Mr Duncan Smith, who is suffering the worst crisis of his leadership.
Tory MPs at all levels of the party, from humble backbenchers to
frontbenchers, believe that his failure to make an impact on the polls
raises serious doubts about whether he should carry on.

Gaffe

The doubts have been compounded by a series of poor performances by Mr
Duncan Smith in the Commons since MPs returned from their summer recess this
month. A gaffe at his first encounter with Mr Blair on October 16 - he
suggested that this year's A-levels may not be "worth the paper they are
written on" -was followed by a flat performance last week.

"Iain is lacklustre in the extreme," a well-placed Tory said. "His failure
to make an impact is relaxing Blair who can swat him with little
difficulty."

MPs believe that Mr Duncan Smith has two key challenges he must meet to
secure his position. In the short term he must put in a convincing
performance in his reply to the Queen's speech on November 13, an event at
which William Hague always shone.

If Mr Duncan Smith emerges unscathed next month, his next main challenge
will come in next May's local elections - a poor performance would embolden
MPs who only need to gather the signatures of 25 colleagues to mount a
challenge.

Should Mr Duncan Smith face a challenge - or take the Estelle Morris route
and fall on his sword - the party is likely to suffer another damaging
leadership contest. Mr Portillo is said, in his more optimistic moments, to
dream of the Tory leadership.

But it would have to be on his own terms - this seems unlikely after a
frosty reception two weeks ago at a meeting of the backbench 1922 committee
when he tried to defend the party chairwoman Theresa May's "nasty" speech.

Mr Portillo is therefore likely to throw in his lot with Kenneth Clarke, who
still has his eye on the leadership. Some MPs are talking about a dream
ticket in which Mr Clarke finds common cause with his former Cambridge
sparring partner, Michael Howard, who is now shadow chancellor.

"Ken is still interested," one Tory said. "Don't forget that at one of the
leadership hustings he dismissed objections to his age by saying that he
would be drawing up his third administration in 10 years' time."

He added: "Ken and Michael Howard will have to reach a deal, but that will
only happen when we really reach rock bottom."

Mr Clarke would like to fight what some MPs are describing as a
"presidential" race in which he is hailed as leader without facing an
unseemly contest. This seems unlikely because the former party chairman,
David Davis, still fancies his chances.

His standing among MPs, who regard him as an inveterate plotter, is low. But
the party grassroots, who have the final say, have immense sympathy for Mr
Davis after his unceremonious demotion by Mr Duncan Smith in the summer.
"There will be a big stop Davis campaign," one MP said.

The fresh round of Tory plotting is dismaying wise heads. "We are in trouble
whichever way we go," one MP said.

"Sticking with Iain will lead to another serious defeat, while a leadership
contest would be incredibly damaging. Meanwhile Labour can do whatever it
likes."

-----

Tories plot to get rid of leader

Nicholas Watt, political correspondent
Wednesday October 30, 2002
The Guardian

Iain Duncan Smith is facing a revolt against his leadership at all levels of
the Tory party, as backbenchers join forces with shadow ministers to warn
that the Conservatives will face a third catastrophic election defeat if he
remains in office.

A series of poor performances by the Tory leader in the Commons, against a
background of dire opinion polls, have persuaded MPs that they will have to
undergo another damaging leadership contest if they are to avoid electoral
meltdown.

Amid speculation about whether Kenneth Clarke and Michael Portillo will
throw their hats into the ring again, well-placed Tories are describing the
atmosphere among MPs as "neurotic and paranoid".

Reviving memories of 1990, when Tory MPs turned against Margaret Thatcher
when she became a liability, one Tory said: "The atmosphere is ghastly
because MPs believe that they are in danger of losing their seats."

Senior MPs say that an overwhelming majority of MPs have decided that Mr
Duncan Smith is now a liability. But they are biding their time before
launching a challenge - 25 MPs would have to sign a letter to trigger a
leadership contest - for fear of opening up divisions with grassroots Tories
who elected Mr Duncan Smith.

"We could get the 25 signatures together in five minutes," one Tory said.
"But that is the nuclear option which should only be used once it is clear
that grassroots members have come round to our view." Opponents of Mr Duncan
Smith believe that local Tory associations are losing confidence with Mr
Duncan Smith, particularly after he endorsed Tory chairwoman Theresa May's
conference speech in which she described the party as "nasty". Scores of
letters from grassroots Tories, complaining about Mr Duncan Smith's poor
performance, are said to arrived Conservative central office.

MPs, who are careful not to put their heads above the parapet at
Westminster, believe that Mr Duncan Smith must meet two key challenges if he
is to survive. He must put in a strong performance when he responds to the
Queen's speech on November 13. If he succeeds, the Tories must then poll
well in next May's local elections.

But Tories are gloomy. "Iain simply is not up to it," one MP said of his
lack-lustre performances in the Commons which have allowed Tony Blair to
flatten him in recent weeks.

Another Tory said that Mr Duncan Smith faces an impossible task in the local
elections because the party will be contesting seats in areas where they did
well last time in 1999. "Iain faces a much higher hurdle than William Hague
ever did. A reasonable performance, in which we take just a handful of
seats, could look like a disaster."

Should Mr Duncan Smith fail to turn round his fortunes by next May, MPs
believe that he is likely to face a challenge if he does not take the
"Estelle Morris option" and fall on his sword. But MPs are warning that this
would be immensely damaging because there would be another bloody contest.