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China, War, and the Centrality of Oil

The other dangerous situation in the world is the US threat of war against China. Capitalism means war. It is an integral part of the system. The US, in the face of an economic collapse, needs a big war to try to refuel its economy. Increasing military expenditures to the tune of $396 billion means the economy is being put on a war footing. The US must also prevent China from becoming a world competitor. It is willing to go to war to prevent this. Such a war could use nuclear weapons.

The activity of the US in Central Asia is part of an overall strategy. U.S. military encirclement of China has expanded through the war in Afghanistan. Control of the Caspian and Central Asian oil, along with its own oil and those deposits it already has under its control, will allow the US to try to dictate to not only Europe, but, as their energy needs continue to grow, China and India as well. Whoever controls the world's energy can control the world.

Bush's threats make China's longtime attempts to revamp its military urgent. At the moment, China is isolated. The Chinese people will defend their country. However, increased military spending takes away from healthcare and other needs, creating more social unrest. China faces the wrath of a new class of poor that is losing its social safety net as the old socialist economy is restructured around the new technology and global market.

The Chinese economy is growing at a dizzying rate and the US needs this market. Energy consumption is expected to grow. By 2010, half of China's energy needs could be filled by foreign oil. Of course, China understands its position in the world and has for years been taking steps so as to not be at the mercy of global oil markets. A rise in the price of oil could hurt their growth. China's defense is to boost home energy production, which they are doing.

Ultimately, the US effort to control oil in the Caspian region cannot succeed. First, building the pipelines and securing them promises to be even more explosive than the Middle East.

Second, there is a glut of oil in the world. There is so much oil under the earth that if all of it was burned, it would destroy the earth. This makes the effort to control the price, and hence the economies of the world, more difficult.

A third problem, related to the glut of oil, is that if too much oil reaches the world market, the price falls. Saudi Arabia loses $2.7 billion for every $1 fall in the price of oil, further intensifying the polarity of wealth and poverty, and creating political havoc in their country. In this light, the US war effort against Iraq is in reality a war to keep Iraqi oil off the market. Iraq sits on the second largest oil reserve next to Saudi Arabia. If Iraq's oil is released it could cause drastic changes in world energy prices. Even though much of the world opposes a war against Iraq, any incident, real or contrived by the US, could set it off.

Finally, the US must reduce Russian influence in the area. Russia is now a world player in oil with huge reserves. US effort could unleash social forces within Russia which must defend their national interests. In addition, Russia is already unsettling the oil balance. It is poised to displace Saudi Arabia as the key energy supplier to the West, and Saudi Arabia does not like it. Also, other countries are challenging American and European dominance in energy.

We have described how every step the capitalists take creates more danger and more political turmoil as they try to implement their global policies. This is most clear when viewed from the perspective of the poor. The worldwide struggle of the poor today is a struggle for human survival. The struggle of the poor in Venezuela shows the potential political ramifications of this. War and global fascism is the only alternative the capitalists have to contain the process.

The world's people are paying the price for the slaughter of thousands of communists in the Middle Eastern countries and elsewhere, and for the action of counter-revolutionaries in the former Socialist countries. It is worth noting that it was after the overthrow of the communist regime in Afghanistan that warlord factions began to destroy the Afghani people's lives. The only thing that can save humanity in this period of epochal change is a society based on cooperation where the world's resources are distributed based on need.