[A-List] EU integration struggles: Ireland & Nice Treaty

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Ireland seems to be swinging behind Nice Treaty
By Leonard Doyle
The Independent, 10 October 2002

There was a collective sigh of relief in Europe's capitals yesterday as an
Irish opinion poll showed a surge of support for the Nice Treaty on
enlargement in next week's crucial referendum. Ireland is the only EU nation
yet to ratify it.

And a second rejection of the Treaty by nervous Irish voters would bring the
enlargement process grinding to a halt and plunge the EU into a
constitutional crisis. It would also bring the wrath of Europe's applicant
countries down on Ireland's head as numerous emissaries have made clear.
Cyprus, Malta and eight East European nations want to join. The poll found
Irish support for the Treaty soaring to 44 per cent, up from from 29 per
cent in a poll last month. The level of opposition edged to 22 per cent from
19, and the percentage undecided dived from 44 to 27.

Another "no" in the country's 19 October referendum would be disaster
scenario, the European Commission, President Romano Prodi, said. "We hope
the Irish people realise just how important the referendum is." In Dublin,
the Irish Prime Minister, Bertie Ahern, said he was lobbying hard for a
"yes" vote. That would ensure "Ireland plays a constructive part in the [EU]
enlargement process, a process that will reunite a continent divided for
more than half a century", Mr Ahern said. Michael Saunders, managing
director of economic and market analysis for Citigroup, which staged the
telephone survey of 934 people, said: "I think it's probably a victory."

Ireland sent shockwaves through Europe when its voters rejected the Treaty
in June 2001 by 54 per cent to 46 in a referendum with a 34 per cent
turnout. A poll just before Ireland's first Treaty vote last year had
similar findings, but Treaty supporters, including all main political
parties, say a bigger turnout should carry the day.

Opponents - Sinn Fein, the Greens, and some trade unions - say the
government is in league with big business, labour and civic groups,
effectively buying the referendum by spending more than ?1m while
anti-treaty groups operate on a shoestring.

"It's entirely predictable," John Gormley, a leader of the anti-treaty Green
Party and member of parliament, said. "All you have to do is look at the
media coverage"

For the last referendum, the "no" side peppered the countryside with a
poster and leaflet campaign while the "yes" side floundered. This time, the
pro-Treaty side kept it simple: the EU is good for a country economically
and politically.