[A-List] UK state: political realignment

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Recently it has become glaringly obvious that space is opening up on the
centre-right of British politics, a space that can, if necessary, be filled
by a new party. But such is the nature of British politics at present that
this new party cannot advocate UK withdrawal from the EU in order to be
successful. There are already parties that cater to that constituency, most
notably the UK Independence Party, a collection of misfits, racists,
europhobes and disaffected punk Thatcherites who think their heroine has
been sold down the river by her party. While most of the Conservative Party
remains attached to both the party and to punk Thatcherism, leader Iain
Duncan Smith recognises the task ahead and to that end is trying desperately
to save the party from oblivion, threatening to go so far as to expel his
mentor Norman Tebbit, Thatcherite boot-boy par excellence whose genial brand
of bigotry, racism and spite continues to wow the dwindling ranks of his
"nasty" party. As the second article shows that will not be easy, since the
"grassroots" of the party seems much more in tune with Tebbit than with his
former protégé.

It is known that Smith has been a regular visitor to the US, and that
Thatcher arranged for him to meet Donald Rumsfeld first, before UK defence
secretary Geoff Hoon. Further evidence of US connections came to light amid
internal Conservative party wrangling, as chairman David Davis was sacked
via what was referred to as a transatlantic telephone call. We don't have to
speculate too hard to guess what is going on here. Smith is in close contact
with Rumsfeld's legions within the American Enterprise Institute that is
pushing the line of EU yes, but a subservient and tame EU kowtowing to US
imperial diktat. The Conservative Party is, theoretically, perfect as a
vehicle for fulfilling the UK part of such a strategy, but the problem is
that there is a mismatch between that party's orientation and political
conditions within the UK. So, that space on the "centre right" of British
politics will have to be occupied by someone, and soon.

Politically it is impossible for any party to campaign for withdrawal from
the EU and expect to achieve anything substantial. The last two elections
have made that abundantly clear. Thus the strategy adopted by David Owen in
his "New Europe" campaigning group strikes a balance that is electorally
astute and at least as effective as far as certain US interests are
concerned: in Europe, but not in the eurozone. In other words, Britain can
become once again the main brake on EU integration and source of irritation
in that process, just as it was under Thatcher and Major. Smith has been
desperately trying to keep public Conservative pronouncements off the topic
of Europe, because it is regarded as a vote-loser, despite the supposedly
widespread scepticism regarding UK euro membership. Thus he is alive to the
fact that a more nuanced approach to Europe is needed, and that some
distance is required between the fierce euroscepticism of old and a new,
supposedly critical engagement policy of the kind Owen represents. In
effect, Smith has got maybe a year at most to get his act together
(effectively re-creating the Conservative Party), or else forces outwith his
control will move to plug the gap by creating a new party along lines
suggested earlier with regard to Owen. The hopelessness of a Smith-led
Conservative Party marching to oblivion would allow younger ambitious types
like Michael Portillo to jump ship at exactly the same time as older pro-EU
hands like Kenneth Clarke, Douglas Hurd and Michael Heseltine undoubtedly
would, should Smith prove incapable of taming the punk Thatcherite Tebbit
tendency. And the media excitement that such an event would create: a new
party, featuring all your favourite political stars and backed by some
leading celebrities (the Spice Girls? Ian Botham? Cilla Black? Vinnie Jones?
Madonna?), timed just perfectly to explode on the scene at the point of a
referendum... you couldn't make this stuff up, could you?



Tory leader will turn against mentor Tebbit
By Andrew Grice Political Editor
The Independent, 10 October 2002

Iain Duncan Smith will accuse the Tories' old guard of "living in the past"
today and warn his party it must change to survive as a political force.

In his closing speech to the Tory conference in Bournemouth, Mr Duncan Smith
will nail his colours to the mast of modernisation by saying the party must
now "move on" from its 18 years in power under Margaret Thatcher and John
Major.

In what has been seen as a make-or-break speech for the Conservative leader,
he will adopt a high-risk strategy by praising as "excellent" the
hard-hitting conference address by the Tory chairman, Theresa May, who said
the Tories must stop being seen as "the nasty party". She came under fire
yesterday from Lord Tebbit, Mr Duncan Smith's political mentor and
predecessor as MP for Chingford.

Mr Duncan Smith will make clear his frustration that the conference took
place against a backdrop of revelations about John Major's affair with
Edwina Currie, Jeffrey Archer's spell in prison and criticism of the leader
by Tory heavyweights including Kenneth Clarke.

"The party that I lead will live in the present and prepare for the future,"
he will say. "So to those who want to refight the battles of the past, and
to those who want to live in the past, I simply say this: you stay in the
past, we are moving on."

Allies hope today's speech will be a defining moment that will quell
speculation that Mr Duncan Smith will be ousted as Tory leader before the
next general election.

-----

Leaders are taking party into oblivion, say activists
By Andrew Grice Political Editor
The Independent, 10 October 2002

The Conservative Party is heading for "oblivion", the leader of a group of
grassroots Tory activists said yesterday.

Michael Normington, chairman of the Charter Movement, which campaigns for
greater democracy inside the party, told a fringe meeting in Bournemouth: "I
say this to Iain Duncan Smith and his team: we have been sinking deeper and
deeper into the mire with every initiative that you have taken - each
initiative designed to further restrict the role of party members in the
running of the organisation.

"Before we finally sink into oblivion, why not take a minute to consider the
other option. Get the organisation off our backs and trust the people."

Mr Normington was attacking plans being considered by the party chairman,
Theresa May, for Conservative Central Office to intervene directly in the
selection of parliamentary candidates to make sure that more women are
chosen.

Options include a shortlist of names being handed to local parties in target
seats and groups of constituencies being told to ensure that between them
half the candidates selected in their area are women.

But the hostile reaction at yesterday's meeting suggests that Tory leaders
have a huge battle on their hands.

Mr Normington said the lack of women candidates was due to the failure of
Central Office to ensure more women were on the party's list, and called for
the officials responsible to be sacked.

He said: "What Mrs May fails to recognise is that while seeking to make the
candidates selected more representative of the population at large, and
declaring that she will intervene if necessary, she has no intention of
seeking to make party membership more representative of the electorate. To
do that she would need to create a party organisation that drew new members
in, and one that was responsive to its members' desire for change. This, of
course, is not on her agenda."

Mrs May came in for further criticism yesterday over her hard-hitting
conference speech on Monday in which she accused some Tories of "demonising
minorities".

Oliver Letwin, the shadow Home Secretary, told a fringe meeting: "I don't
think we have ever had the inclination to demonise minorities or anybody
else. At various moments we may be mistaken very slightly with sounding as
if we are demonising, which is a completely different position."

He said he was "softer" and "weaker" on immigration and asylum than David
Blunkett, the Home Secretary.

"There are dyed-in-the-wool Tories who read the Daily Mail and feel that
David Blunkett's rhetoric is right and that mine is too weak and wrong. I
wonder what those people will feel three years from now when there is no
improvement. I think they will prefer something softer and more effective in
practice," he said.

Lord Tebbit, a former Tory chairman, criticised Mrs May for branding the
Tories "the nasty party". He said: "I think this 'nice' and 'nasty' is
really irrelevant. The only impact it will have is that when we get back to
Parliament, when the Commons comes back, Blair and other government
ministers will be very eager to constantly tell Conservatives they're nasty
and that even their own party calls them nasty."

He said the only nastiness in the party "was among the group of people who
pulled down Margaret Thatcher and left the party utterly rudderless for some
time".

He said Mrs May had to ask herself why people voted for the party in 1979,
1983 and 1987 if it was seen as "nasty".