[A-List] UK sub-imperialism: tooling up for war

["Michael Keaney" <michael.keaney@xxxxxx>]

Military expects the go-ahead for Iraq war within a month
Military strategists believe Saddam Hussein could be toppled by his own army
shortly before or in early stages of an attack
By Kim Sengupta
The Independent, 08 October 2002

Britain's military forces are expected to be given Downing Street's go-ahead
by the end of this month to prepare for a war with Iraq.

It will take two months from then, and £90m, to get the army's chief battle
tank, Challenger 2, "desertised" for combat, and move other equipment and
manpower into place, senior Whitehall sources said.

According to the projected timetable for a new Gulf war, drawn up by defence
planners in London and Washington, an air campaign could begin by the end of
November, with a land offensive early in the new year.

Although no official decision has been made yet on deployment, and the
Government insists that a war is not inevitable, strategists in London are
preparing contingency "non plans" for a short and swift war, and units have
already been "ringfenced" for operations.

Senior British and American commanders believe that a coup d'etat is almost
certain to take place in Baghdad to depose Saddam Hussein on the eve of, or
very early into, a new conflict. They also believe that the damage caused by
the Iraqis using chemical or biological weapons in an open battlefield may
not be as destructive as has been feared.

Senior officers hold that as much of the Iraqi armed forces as possible must
be left intact in a post-Saddam Iraq to maintain order and prevent Shia and
Kurdish forces from dismembering the country.

The Whitehall sources also acknowledged that senior British officers do not
view that a war against the Iraqi regime is a matter of "national survival",
or a "do or die" situation.

"Spending £90m to desertise has to be a political decision. [But] If we have
not moved on the go-ahead by the end of this month, I would be very
surprised,"a senior Whitehall source said. "It will take just a few weeks to
move armour when a decision is made, but around two months to carry out the
full desertisation.

"There are reasons to believe that there could be a coup d'etat against the
current regime by their commanders. It is not in our interest to destroy or
humiliate the Iraqi army, they will be needed to maintain the territorial
integrity of Iraq.

"As for weapons of mass destruction, the effectiveness of chemical and
biological weapons may be limited in a dispersed battlefield, the nuclear
issue, of course, is very different."

In Washington, the Bush administration yesterday urged Iraqi generals to
defy President Saddam if he orders biological or chemical attacks on US and
allied forces. "The message to them is think before you act," the White
House spokesman, Ari Fleischer, said.

The Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri yesterday visited the United Arab
Emirates as the Iraqi regime continued with its own diplomatic offensive.
"With whatever weapons we have in our hands, and after depending on God with
faith, we are able to confront any aggressor, from wherever he comes," Mr
Sabri said.