[A-List] US/Russia tensions: Iraq

["Keaney Michael" <Michael.Keaney@xxxxxx>]

Kremlin gives short shrift to US hawk over Iraq

Ian Traynor in Moscow
Thursday September 12, 2002
The Guardian

The US state department's leading hawk arrived in Moscow yesterday on a
tricky mission to persuade the Kremlin to soften its strong opposition
to a US military campaign against Saddam Hussein.

John Bolton, the US under-secretary of state, was greeted by a chorus of
Russian warnings of the folly and dangers of a war against Iraq.

The Russian foreign minister, Igor Ivanov, warned that a new Gulf war
could wreck broader international cooperation against al-Qaida and
terrorism. His deputy said a US military campaign was utterly
unacceptable to Russia. The talk of war also brought protests in the
Russian parliament.

Moscow's position on Iraq, a traditional ally, is becoming critical if
Washington hopes to secure UN security council blessing for military
action.

But while the Kremlin looks likely to insist on a new security council
resolution mandating the use of force against Baghdad - a resolution it
could veto - Mr Bolton insisted that no new international mandate was
needed to launch a war against President Saddam. "You don't have to wait
for a mushroom cloud before you take appropriate action," he said.

"Whether the president decides to seek another resolution from the
security council is a matter of political judgment, but it's certainly
not a matter of international legal necessity," he told the BBC before
landing in Moscow. "I think it's sanctioned morally and legally."

His position contrasted strongly with that of Russia's influential
deputy foreign minister and former spy chief, Vyacheslav Trubnikov, who
ridiculed the US case against President Saddam.

"The military scenario concerning Iraq is absolutely unacceptable for
Russia, and our position is consonant with that of the majority of
states," he told the Vremya Novostei newspaper.

Echoing what appears to be the developing Russian position on Iraq, Mr
Trubnikov said Russia stood four-square with America on fighting
international terrorism, but US unilateralism and resort to force would
wreck that solidarity, not only in Russia, but also in Germany and
elsewhere in the west.

"The fight against terrorism and the Iraq situation are completely
different things, as are the return of UN inspectors to Iraq and the
problem of changing the Saddam regime."

But it still remains unclear how President Vladimir Putin will react if
Mr Bush launches a war either with or without international backing.

On several key occasions since the New York and Washington atrocities,
Mr Putin has put on a brave face and bowed to US pressure on arms
control, missile defence, the US military deployments in post-Soviet
central Asia and the Caucasus.

It may be Russia could be bought off with pledges of protection for its
substantial economic interests in Iraq under a post-Saddam regime.

Other possible areas for a trade-off to blunt Russian opposition would
be a tacit green light from the west for Mr Putin's war in Chechnya and
taking Moscow's side in the confrontation between Russia and Georgia
over the latter's alleged harbouring of Chechen "terrorists".