[A-List] Destructive creation: World Bank worried

["Keaney Michael" <Michael.Keaney@xxxxxx>]

A vision of dystopia

This is for real, not the sequel to a sci-fi thriller. The World Bank
paints a picture of a catastrophic global future if we do not change the
way we live

Larry Elliott, economics editor
Thursday August 22, 2002
The Guardian

New York City in 2022. Half the 40 million people in the swarming
metropolis are unemployed, the air is thick with pollution, food and
water are as precious as jewels. This was the world of the future as
envisaged in the sci-fi thriller, Soylent Green, in 1973. Now, according
to the World Bank, it could come true unless there are dramatic and
immediate changes to the way we live.

Unlike the Charlton Heston movie, the Bank does not suggest that we will
be making food from dead bodies in 20 years' time. But its warning of an
increasingly dysfunctional global society, with enormous pressure on
basic resources such as water, energy and health, is remarkably similar.

Looking into its crystal ball, the Bank sees a world of nine billion
people by mid-century generating a global GDP of $140 trillion a year.
This staggering fourfold increase in the size of the world economy would
be enough to guarantee a large-scale reduction in the 1.2 billion people
living on less than a dollar a day, but the Bank argues that the price
will be environmental catastrophe, social breakdown and lower living
standards for everyone if policies remain unchanged.

Released to coincide with next week's summit on sustainable development
in Johannesburg, the Washington-based institution's annual world
development report sounds the alarm bell for global leaders as they
prepare for 10 days of talks, providing a nightmarish prophecy of what
could happen if they fail to turn rhetoric into action.

It's not all bad news. The Bank says that economic growth is vital for
tackling poverty, with a 3.6% a year increase in per capita incomes
needed in developing countries if the world is to achieve the 2015
targets set by the United Nations of halving the number of people living
on less than a dollar a day, reducing infant mortality by two thirds and
giving every child a primary school education. It adds, however, that
coordinating globally and acting locally will be critical to ensuring
that gains in social indicators - such as incomes, literacy rates, or
access to sanitation - of the past 20 years are not reversed by
population growth pressures and unsustainable economic expansion.

"This growth must be achieved in a manner that preserves our future,"
said Ian Johnson, vice-president of the Bank's environmentally and
socially sustainable development network. "It would be reckless of us to
reach successfully the millennium development goals in 2015, only to be
confronted by dysfunctional cities, dwindling water supplies, more
inequality and conflict and even less crop land to sustain us than we
have now."

The report contains a litany of potential ecological and social
problems, from slum-ridden urban dystopias to an increase to the 1.3
billion people who already live on fragile lands which cannot sustain
them. Already, it says, the "biosphere's capacity to absorb carbon
dioxide without altering temperatures has been compromised because of
heavy reliance on fossil fuels for energy. Greenhouse gas emissions will
continue to grow unless a concerted effort is made to increase energy
efficiency and reduce dependency on fossil fuels."

Nearly two million hectares of land worldwide (23% of all crop land,
pasture, forest and woodland) have been degraded since the 1950s, a
fifth of all tropical forests have been cleared since 1960 and one third
of terrestial biodiversity is squeezed into vulnerable habitats making
up just 1.4% of the earth's surface.

Unsurprisingly, the Bank concludes that these trends cannot continue.
"The $140 trillion world of five decades' time simply cannot be
sustained on current production and consumption patterns," said Nick
Stern, the Bank's chief economist. "A major transformation, beginning in
the rich countries, will be needed to ensure that poor people have an
opportunity to participate, and that the environment is not damaged in a
way that undermines their opportunities for the future."

So what is the Bank's blueprint for sustainable development? It says:

· developing countries should act to clean up their governments,
promoting participation and democracy, inclusiveness and transparency as
they build the institutions needed to manage their resources;

· rich countries need to be less selfish by increasing aid, offering
more generous debt relief, opening their markets to developing country
exporters and helping transfer technologies needed to prevent diseases,
increase energy efficiency and bolster agricultural productivity;

· civil society organisations should be encouraged to serve as a voice
for the weak and powerless, and to provide independent verification of
public, private and non-governmental performance;

· private firms should be more focused on sustainability in their day
to day activities, and have incentives to pursue profit while advancing
environmental and social objectives.

"The world must act to help its poorest people manage their own
resources and build their productivity and incomes now, to empower these
communities and help them prepare for the demands of the decades ahead,"
said Mr Stern. "Rich countries can take such a step by opening their
markets to developing world exports and by abandoning agricultural
subsidies and other barriers to trade that depress prices and limit
market opportunities for the very goods that poor people produce most
competitively."

Given that the average income in the richest 20 countries in the world
is 37 times that in the poorest 20, the Bank feels that the rich west is
in a position to make concessions. "It seems to me there is a certain
hypocrisy about rich countries telling poor countries to undertake
radical reform. The kind of changes we have got to make in the west are
much smaller than the kinds of reforms rich countries are asking poor
countries to make all the time," Mr Stern told the Guardian.

So far, the willingness of the developed west to abandon protectonist
policies has not been much in evidence and, as the Bank recognises in
four open questions posed in the conclusion to the report, there are
potential pitfalls ahead.

The first is the issue of when consumption is overconsumption. Telling
consumers in the west that they have to cut back is not relished by
politicians. But the Bank wonders whether consumption will become the
modern equivalent of the Cold War arms race; will people in the
developing world see the norm as patterns of consumption in the west?

The second vexed issue highlighted by the report is the future of
agriculture and of genetically modified organisms. The United States is
eager to export GM foods to developing countries, often in the teeth of
ferocious local opposition. Should this be encouraged? The Bank is not
sure. "Applying the precautionary principle - balancing risks to food
safety and the environment against prospects for development and poverty
alleviation - will be a difficult task, requiring a broader debate on
credible information."

Third, the Bank is concerned about the system of intellectual property
rights presided over by the World Trade Organisation. How can the
interests of patent holders be balanced against those of the users of
products? The system in place has strengthened the hand of western
corporations at the expense of poor countries. The potential for unequal
outcomes is "worrisome", the Bank says.

Finally, what are the prospects for global migration? The report says
that global inequality, combined with demographic trends, will create
ever more pressure for migration. "Dealing with this pressure is a
challenge worldwide."

The report concludes that the planet will face predictable challenges
which will increase in intensity over the coming decades. But the fact
that the Bank has no pat answers to its four questions suggests that
they will take years, if not decades, to resolve. If the Bank is right,
the most precious resource of all over the next half century could be
time.

Sustainable Development in a Dynamic World. This report is available on
http://www.worldbank.org/wdr