Re: [A-List] Re: Brazil: liberal markets vs. bourgeois democracy

["Anne Williamson" <annewilliamson@xxxxxxx>]

Sabri:

The real corker, I fear, in the Ecuadoran tragedy is
that they are on schedule to default once again in
approximately 2 years.  I am very fearful of the
troubles to come throughout all of Latin America,
and Mexico (the 94 bailout solved nothing and
only worked to increase their overall debt burden.)
Economists will be writing about that "Committee
to Save the World" (Summers, "Peso Bob" Rubin
and Easy Al Greenscam) pictured on the front of
Time Magazine after the LTCM fiasco for decades.

Anne

----- Original Message -----
From: Sabri Oncu <soncu@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: ALIST <a-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, June 25, 2002 5:38 PM
Subject: [A-List] Re: Brazil: liberal markets vs. bourgeois democracy


> Anne writes:
>
> > I believe the game with Argentina is to force
> > them to dollarize -- and this game began under
> > Summers at US Treasury some years ago.  Ecuador
> > was just a trial run.
>
> Your arguments sound quite plausible Anne. By the way, what
> happened in Ecuador in January-February 2000, after they
> dollarized was very sad. A "failed revolution" took place there
> as some of you may recall. I believe the failed Ecuadorean
> "revolution" is another example of what happens if the screwed
> are not prepared to keep the power they take. They took it for a
> day or two and then let it go. Could they have held on to it in
> the then prevailing conditions, I don't know!
>
> Maybe not...
>
> Sabri
>
> ++++++++++
>
> Ecuador govt, Indians restart talks after deaths
> By Alistair Scrutton
>
>
> QUITO, Ecuador, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Ecuador's government on Tuesday
> restarted talks with Indian groups to try and defuse a spiraling
> political crisis after three protesters demanding fuel and
> transport price cuts were killed in clashes with security forces.
>
> The deaths on Monday were the first during two weeks of street
> protests by Indian groups and resulted in the suspension of
> negotiations with the government aimed at ending the political
> impasse.
>
> The suspension of the talks was a setback for the one-year-old
> government of President Gustavo Noboa, who is trying to
> consolidate political stability in this polarized Andean nation
> of 12 million people, about the size of Italy.
>
> The Indians say they account for about half of Ecuador's
> population.
>
> "(The two sides) are preparing the talks so that finally there
> may be able to achieve direct talks with the president," talks
> mediator Auki Tituana, a well-respected municipal leader, told
> Reuters.
>
> Both sides say they are willing to negotiate, but Monday's deaths
> had dampened hopes that a solution could be found.
>
> The Indian protests brought back memories of last year's
> indigenous marches which, backed by some military officers,
> eventually toppled then President Jamil Mahuad who was unable to
> control a flagging economy.
>
> Noboa, then vice president, replaced Mahuad and he has less than
> two years of his presidential term left.
>
> Tensions were already running high after Noboa -- Ecuador's
> fourth president in four years -- on Friday declared a state of
> emergency, restricting travel and meetings and putting the army
> on the streets, to combat marches in Quito and major regional
> cities.
>
> No clashes with security forces were reported early Tuesday,
> according to local media, but it was unclear how successful the
> talks would be.
>
> Indian demonstrators, backed by various student, teacher and
> trade union groups, have planned a major strike for Wednesday.
>
> Mired in economic troubles, with three quarters of its people
> without full-time jobs, Ecuador has lagged behind other Latin
> American nations, many of which have made significant strides
> toward free market economies and democratic stability.
>
> It has also become a regional concern. Signs that the war in
> neighboring Colombia between leftist rebels and the government
> could spill over into Ecuador are further threatening the
> country's fragile democracy.
>
> Indian protesters, who often dress in traditional highland
> ponchos while coordinating marches on cell phones, have blocked
> roads between major cities, cutting the supply of basic goods
> like fruits and vegetables.
>
> The Red Cross said two Indian protesters were found shot dead on
> Monday in the Amazon province of Napo and a third Indian
> demonstrator was killed in Andean region of Tungurahua.
>
> Indian groups claimed the army had fired on thousands of
> marchers.
>
> The Red Cross and the Ecuadorean armed forces said dozens more
> protesters had been injured.
>
> ANALYSTS SAY ANOTHER COUP IS UNLIKELY
>
> Analysts say another coup was unlikely since Noboa has the
> support of the business community and the military, which
> frequently acts as a powerbroker.
>
> However, the president's support is waning. According to leading
> pollster Cedatos, Noboa has the support of 28 percent of the popu
> lation, compared with 43 percent in December.
>
> Highways across the nation's highlands have been blocked by
> protesters for more than a week, making travel and trade nearly
> impossible and cutting the supply of basic goods like fruits,
> vegetables and fuel to some of Ecuador's biggest cities.
>
> The fuel price hikes prompted some 5,000 Indians to travel to
> Quito in protest. Many of them are camping at the city's Salesian
> University campus, which has been surrounded by dozens of
> policemen.
>
> Ecuador, which last year adopted the U.S. dollar as its official
> currency to combat high inflation and sluggish growth, is
> struggling through an economic crisis that saw it default on its
> debt in 1999 and post the highest inflation
> in Latin America three years running.
>
>
>