[A-List] Japan: Nuclear arms taboo challenged

[Sabri Oncu <soncu@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

New York Times
June 9, 2002

Nuclear Arms Taboo Is Challenged in Japan
By HOWARD W. FRENCH


TOKYO, June 8 ? Alarmed by the rising power of China and anxious
about the effectiveness of security guarantees from the United
States, some of Japan's most powerful politicians have begun to
consider breaking with a half-century-old policy of pacifism by
acquiring nuclear weapons.

In comments that stunned many here, Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi's top aide told reporters last week that what Japan calls
its three non-nuclear principles could soon come under review.

"The principles are just like the Constitution," Yasuo Fukuda,
the chief cabinet secretary, was quoted as saying. "But in the
face of calls to amend the Constitution, the amendment of the
principles is also likely."

The Koizumi government was particularly embarrassed by the timing
of the controversy. The first news stories about Mr. Fukuda's
comments appeared while he was in South Korea attending opening
ceremonies of the World Cup, for which Japan is a co-host, and
came at the same time as Japan's foreign minister was calling
upon India and Pakistan to pledge not to use nuclear weapons
against each other.

Amid a wave of criticism, Mr. Koizumi's government initially
denied that the remarks had been made. Then came a belated
admission by Mr. Fukuda, who insisted, however, that his comments
were not intended to signal a policy shift.

Mr. Koizumi went even further, saying his government has no
intention of obtaining nuclear weapons.

Mr. Fukuda's comments came barely a week after another senior
official, the deputy chief cabinet secretary, Shinzo Abe, said
publicly that Japan could legally possess nuclear weapons, so
long as they were "small." As a result, for many political
analysts Mr. Fukuda's words became much more than a gaffe.

In one of his many attempts to explain away his remarks, Mr.
Fukuda, one of Japan's most sober and sure-footed political
figures, said he was merely trying to get "young reporters" to
begin thinking differently about their country's future.

Despite the denials of an imminent change, remarks like these
indicate that a major shift in Japanese security thinking is
under way.

Japan's official pacifism is more than a simple policy. Since the
country's defeat in World War II with the bombings of Hiroshima
and Nagasaki ? the only time atomic weapons have been used in a
conflict ? it has been an integral element of the national
identity. The three non-nuclear principles ? never to own,
produce or allow nuclear weapons on Japanese territory ? were
overwhelmingly ratified in a parliamentary vote in 1971,
reflecting the strong national consensus on the issue. The
principles supplement the explicitly pacifist Constitution, which
does not refer directly to nuclear weapons.

The comments by officials in Mr. Koizumi's government, however,
come against a backdrop of other recent statements that show an
erosion of support for pacifism, at least among the political
class. Barely a month ago, an influential opposition leader,
Ichiro Ozawa, all but predicted Japan's nuclear armament.

"If China gets too inflated, the Japanese people will become
hysterical in response," he said. "We have plenty of plutonium in
our nuclear power plants, so it's possible for us to produce
3,000 to 4,000 nuclear warheads."

Mr. Ozawa was pressured to retract his remarks. But then,
according to the newspaper Tokyo Shimbun, Tokyo's mayor, Shintaro
Ishihara, called Mr. Fukuda to congratulate him for his comments
about nuclear weapons. Mr. Ishihara, a nationalist and one of
Japan's most popular politicians, is widely seen as a possible
successor to Mr. Koizumi.

All this was in telling contrast with the last time a prominent
politician entertained such an idea. In October 1999, Shingo
Nishimura, then the new vice minister of defense in the cabinet
of Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi, said in an interview that Japan's
failure to consider nuclear armament left it open to "rape" by
China.

The chorus of criticism that followed became so shrill that Mr.
Nishimura was forced to resign.

"What we are seeing is vastly accelerated change post 9/11," said
Robyn Lim, a professor of international relations at Nanzan
University, in Nagoya. "Japan has watched how nifty Putin's
diplomacy has been, deciding that Russia will cooperate on
missile defense with the United States, and the effects of this
will be transmitted here through China. China will build up even
faster than they might have.

"You have to wonder then," she said, "how long Japan can remain
the only non-nuclear power among the major countries in the
region?"

The nationalist-leaning Mr. Koizumi came into office just over a
year ago promising sweeping economic reforms, which he has
largely failed to deliver, earning him unfavorable ratings. But
he has used the alarm raised by the Sept. 11 attacks and the
hawkish sentiments of Japan's politicians to push through big
changes in Japan's defense posture.

Japan's neighbors have always regarded its non-nuclear status
with skepticism. Japan spends lavishly on nuclear energy,
promoting nuclear fuel enrichment programs that have produced
stockpiles of weapons-grade uranium. Japan's space program,
meanwhile, has developed rockets that could be converted into
missile launchers. Japan's mastery of these two technologies
already makes it a "virtual nuclear power," arms control experts
say.

Japanese conservatives have long been frustrated by a
Constitution that was written by the United States during the
postwar occupation, from 1945 to 1952. The Constitution prohibits
Japan from having an army or using force to settle disputes.
Revising this clause would require a two-thirds majority in both
houses of Parliament. Such backing would be difficult to achieve
because pacifism enjoys continuing popular support.

Rather than try to revise the Constitution, Mr. Koizumi has
simply decided to reinterpret it liberally. With little
opposition, he dispatched warships overseas for the first time in
the postwar period, to the Indian Ocean in support of the
American campaign in Afghanistan.

This month, he is pushing a bill before Parliament that would
give Japan's armed forces much broader powers in an emergency.

"During the 1990's we had almost constant cabinet changes, and
you could describe the process as one of drifting or being
carried by the currents," said Yasuhiro Nakasone, a former prime
minister who has supported a more assertive defensive posture for
Japan. "What the Koizumi cabinet has been doing is trying to
recover the lost ground."

North Korea, an ally of China, first set off reappraisals of
Japan's defense needs when it test fired a ballistic missile over
Japan in 1998.

That missile launching also served to renew doubts here about
American guarantees of Japanese security under a longstanding
mutual defense treaty. Japanese complained bitterly that
Washington failed to share its reconnaissance intelligence and
gave the country no warning of the North Korean launching.

In response, Japan accelerated development of its own costly spy
satellite program, and politicians began discussing the need for
something beyond American guarantees to defend their country.

"Simply put, we doubt that the United States would sacrifice Los
Angeles for Tokyo," said Taro Kono, a member of Parliament. Mr.
Kono does not support nuclear armament, but he is one of a
growing number of young Liberal Democratic politicians who favor
constitutional reform to allow Japan to defend itself with
conventional arms.

Bush administration officials said they did not yet see any
substantial shift in Japan. "We see no change in Japan's policy,"
said Sean McCormack, a spokesman for the National Security
Council. "The U.S.-Japan alliance has never been stronger."

Full at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/06/09/international/asia/09JAPA.html