[A-List] Turkey: on the brink of chaos

[Sabri Oncu <soncu@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Also see

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/opinion/01_06_02_c.htm

for an alternative analysis. I thank John Enyang for bringing the
above article to my attention.


Sabri

+++++++++++++++++++

Turkish Daily News
June 3, 2002

All roads lead to early elections

Dervis is signalling his intention to enter active politics...
One after the other new parties are being established... Members
of the three-way coalition government are accusing each other...
The military is suggestion resolution to the death penalty and
education and broadcasting in Kurdish issues... TUSIAD is
intervening in politics by placing ads in papers... The president
is gathering a summit of party leaders

The political crisis has deepened enough to reach the 'deep
state.' For the first time since its creation four decades ago, a
National Security Council meeting was not attended by the prime
minister, deputy prime minister and the interior minister...
Because of his aggravated illness, contrary to claims of
recuperation, Ecevit is likely to stay indoors and won't be able
to attend the June 7 summit of the party leaders at the Cankaya
Presidential Palace

The conditions for EU membership, that is lifting of the death
penalty, education and broadcasting in Kurdish and lifting of the
emergency rule will be resolved, though with pains. The real
crisis, however, will be over Cyprus. Neither the deep state, nor
the Anatolian people will accept total Turkish withdrawal from
Cyprus. 'We may pay a high price over Cyprus' warning of Foreign
Minister Ismail Cem months ago had stemmed from this reality

Headed by the pro-EU ANAP, the 'Euro-Club' circles are unaware
how the pressures on Cyprus and the pro-Kurdish impositions on
Ankara are fuelling 'racist-nationalist' tendencies amongst the
Anatolian people. It will be too late when those who have not
tolerated Le Pen and Haider, realize the sentimental reaction of
the silent Anatolian masses. The government is aware that after
political criteria time we will come to Cyprus. As it will be
unable to resist pressures this year end, it is very likely that
it will have to take an early poll decision this fall

A development that might alter all calculations and designs, on
the other hand, can be lived with the deterioration of the health
situation of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit. As Turkish politics
has been no post-Ecevit contingency plan, incapacitation of the
prime minister may land the country into political chaos, derail
Turkish economy and easily place Turkish democracy on a path of
no-return. Irrespective whether they want it, parties may find
soon an early election as the sole way out from a catastrophic
situation.

------------------------

By Kemal Balci

The most critical week for a way out from the crisis that has
engulfed Turkish politics has started.

The health of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, the outcome of the
summit of political leaders at the Cankaya Presidential Palace,
the unending and uncompromising political contradiction between
ruling coalition's senior partner the Nationalist Movement Party
(MHP) and the junior partner the Motherland Party (ANAP) will all
be clarified this week.

The political crisis that's being gradually deepening appears
making an early general elections this fall unavoidable, but
there is also the risk of Turkey undergoing at any moment an
extraordinary development.

There are many signs that indicate that the country is being
pulled to an early election. It was the Turkish Daily News (TDN)
which had reported first that Turkey has entered into an election
atmosphere. It was the analysis published in the TDN two months
ago that first underlined that an early election was brewing. Two
months after a large segment of those interested in Turkish
politics conceded that there were many developments that press
for an early election this fall.

Most lately, the hints of State Minister Kemal Dervis during his
trip to London that he was preparing to enter active politics,
were indicators that all other options to come out from this
political crisis but an early election have all exhausted.
Dervis, who had started his revelations with a statement that
disclosing an early election date would relieve the Turkish
economy as it would end the atmosphere of uncertainty, is still
talking on the issue despite a call for "silence" from Prime
Minister Ecevit.

Dervis did not stop at stating that a poll would relieve the
economy, he furthermore stated that being afraid of an election
would mean some other problems existed in a democracy.

Apart from Dervis, the Turkish political elite outside Parliament
who has also seen an approaching early election, has intensified
efforts to establish political parties. Thus, one after the other
new political parties are emerging on the political spectrum. The
Democratic Turkey Party (DTP), which is known with its close
links with former President Suleyman Demirel, has replaced its
aged leader Ismet Sezgin with Mehmet Ali Bayar and intensified
its grassroots activities. All together some 50 parties have so
far become eligible to run in an early general election.

Those who oppose an early election, on the other hand, defend
that an election cannot be held with such a high number of
parties and that a ballot paper having names of all 50 parties
would be more than one meter long.

The reaction of the MHP
The public debate and constant contradiction between the senior
and junior partners, MHP and ANAP, of the three-way coalition
government has further fuelled the early elections speculations.
ANAP has been demanding that the reforms and steps Turkey was
required to take for its EU bid should be unconditionally taken
without any debate that may cause a delay. Yilmaz, who appeared
sympathetic to "Kurdish nationalists" with his declaration that
"The road to EU passes from Diyarbakir, has become nowadays the
open target of the MHP.

MHP leader Deputy Prime Minister Devlet Bahceli, while on a trip
to China, listed the conditions of his party for EU membership.
The MHP leader stressed that the death sentence file against
separatist chieftain Abdullah Ocalan should be sent to Parliament
for approval and the terrorist leader be transferred from his
island-prison at Imrali to an F-type prison. This statement of
Bahceli further increased the tension between MHP and ANAP.

Furthermore, after Bahceli's statement, MHP deputy Edip Ozbas
even started preparations of demanding a Parliament inquiry
against Prime Minister Ecevit, on grounds that he held Ocalan's
death file at the Prime Ministry.

It was again MHP's Deputy Chairman Sefkat Cetin who expressed
with most open terms the reaction of his party to Yilmaz and
ANAP. Writing in "Ortadogu" newspaper, which is considered to be
the press organ of the MHP, Cetin said:

"The strategy of a political party and its chairman who has
assumed the duty of being the spokesman of the EU in Turkey, is
composed of elements that rather than carrying Turkey to EU full
membership, aims at serving their target electoral groups.
Therefore, rather than examining the conditions put infront of us
for EU, they have been looking what domestic benefit such steps
would provide to them. In a country like Turkey which has
struggled for long years with terrorism and which has not yet
been relieved of this menace, nobody could consider as innocent
demands the attempt to lift the death penalty and allow Kurdish
broadcasting and education rights together."

"By passing the road to the EU from Diyarbakir, rather than
Ankara, or by defending some cultural rights and the lifting of
the death penalty one may appear cute to certain circles or may
help to have election flirt with a political party on the edge of
being closed down (meaning People's Democracy Party, HADEP). Do
you see the EU as an opportunity for your or your party's
salvation? If not so, why are you rather than explaining to the
EU the realities of Turkey you has been involved in a campaign of
making us accept the conditions they have been trying to impose
on us?" Cetin asked.

In another question he addressed to Yilmaz, without referring to
him using his name, Cetin asked what kind of a resolution Yilmaz
wanted to the Cyprus problem.

"They should clearly tell the Turkish public what they wanted us
to accept and what they wanted us to abandon for the sake of EU
membership," he said.

MHP's Parliamentary Group deputy chairman Ismail Kose, again in
an interview with the "Ortadogu" newspaper stressed that MHP
won't change its position because that TUSIAD's placed ads in
newspapers.

"MHP won't bow to impositions of the EU because the Turkish
nation wants so," he said.

Accusing the TUSIAD of becoming and acting like the "spokesman"
of "imperialist circles" Kose accused the powerful industrialist
group of making unjust attacks on Turkish Cypriot President Rauf
Denktas and acting as if the train would be missed and of
deviating from national goals and of becoming the messenger of
imperialist philosophy.

Again TUSIAD ads
While two partners of Prime Minister Ecevit are feuding, the
Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen's Association (TUSIAD)
placed full page ads in newspapers last week. In the ads, the
association that brings together the most wealthy Turkish
businessmen, urged the government to take the reforms demanded by
the EU and not to "miss the EU train."

The full page ads of TUSIAD was reminiscent of the ads the rich
businessmen's group had placed in papers in the late 1970s.

This time, however, TUSIAD was not complaining about the
government to the nation, but appealing to the parties
represented in Parliament, to unite forces in a bi-partizan
manner and act together to promote the European Union membership
bid of the country.

In an ultimatum-like attitude, TUSIAD urged politicians, without
discriminating any party, to take the necessary steps, in a
bi-partizan manner, that will facilitate Turkey's European Union
accession. Stressing that "Turkey is at a crossroads," the group
asked politicians in full-page ads in newspapers, that they
should stop using the EU as a domestic policy tool.

Besides the full-page ads, in an unprecedented manner TUSIAD came
up last week with two drafts, one suggesting a way out from the
death penalty deadlock and the other providing besides Turkish
education and broadcasting rights in "languages traditionally
spoken" in the country or "foreign languages that has contributed
to the enhancement of science and culture."

Indeed, what TUSIAD suggested were nothing more than what
intellectuals of the country have been debating for the past
several months, but the industrialist group took the initiative
with the bold move.

Stressing that Turkey ought to take some urgent steps or would
miss the EU-train, TUSIAD suggested replacement of the "death
penalty" in the Turkish Penal Code, as well as a set of other
laws including the Anti-Terrorism Law, Military Penal Code and
the Forestry Law with a new "heavy life-term" sentence, and thus
called for total deletion of the death penalty from the Turkish
judicial system.

The TUSIAD proposal defined the "heavy life-term" as 40 years
behind bars. According to the proposal prisoners serving a "heavy
life-term" would be eligible for parole or reduction in sentence
only after serving 30 years of their sentence.

TUSIAD also called for a language reform and lifting of
restriction on the use of Kurdish in education and broadcasting.

According to a draft prepared by leading law professor Prof.
Suheyl Batum and released by the powerful industrialists group,
stressed that besides Turkish "languages traditionally spoken" in
the country and "foreign languages that have contributed to the
enhancement of science and culture" could be used by the TV and
radio stations in their music and news broadcasts.

The draft also states that it was the duty of the state to make
regulations so that citizens exercise their right of learning
"the languages traditionally spoken in the country." It said the
state would either undertake the responsibility of learning its
citizens those languages or would allow the private sector to
undertake that responsibility.

The MHP reacted strongly to the TUSIAD's ads in paper, as well as
to the draft laws the group suggested. It was reported that
TUSIAD would visit MHP leader Bahceli this week and try to
"convince" the deputy prime minister to support the reform drive.
Will they succeed? That will be seen this week.

Suggestions from the military
With the interference of TUSIAD the political crisis further
deepened and has apparently reached even the "deep state." The
newspapers, without naming the "commander" run stories based on
remarks of a general "who represented the views of the military."
The general was suggesting ways of resolving the death penalty,
Kurdish education and broadcasting problems, that is the issues
demanded from Turkey by the EU.

The "resolution" proposal of the military on the death penalty
and other issues was considered as an interference by the army
into an area in which the civilians could not reconcile their
differences.

According to the reports, like the TUSIAD, the military was
suggesting conversion of the death penalty to a "heavy life term"
without parole, and teaching of Kurdish in special courses
outside the curriculum and broadcasts in Kurdish and other
languages on a special channel of the state TV.

Sezer bringing leaders together

The failure of civilian politicians in resolving their
differences on key issues, the military and business circles
suggesting their resolution proposals are developments that
analysts say underline a deadlock of the political system.

In an attempt to eradicate this image that may hamper Turkish
democracy, President Ahmet Necdet Sezer has invited leaders of
political parties for a summit meeting at the Cankaya
Presidential Palace. The meeting will take place on June 7 and
will be participated by leaders of all six parties represented in
Parliament (God willing and Ecevit's health permitting).

High on the agenda of that summit will be the "conventional
issues" like the death penalty, education and broadcasting rights
in Kurdish, the future of the emergency rule -- on which the
National Security Council decided last week to recommend
government phased out -- as well as the demands of the opposition
parties for amendments to be made in the law on political parties
and the election law.

If the leaders reconcile their differences on these issues,
legislative steps, including constitutional amendments, will be
taken swiftly.

If, however, the leaders don't come out from that summit with
reconciliation that would let another indication that an early
election has become a must. If the three ruling parties, because
of their parliamentary majority, block an early election
decision, the dimension of the deadlock would further enhance and
become a state crisis that may land the country in a chaotic
situation.

Cyprus: The difficult subject for EU

Even though it appears difficult, there is a possibility of the
three partners reconcile their differences by fall and resolve
the death penalty, Kurdish education and broadcasting issues. The
real problem between Turkey and the EU, however, is the demand to
have a Cyprus resolution by the year end.

No Turkish government has the power and courage to
unconditionally pull out from Cyprus, because it would be
impossible to sell such a situation to the conservative masses in
Anatolia who constititute the grassroots of all center-right and
nationalist parties.

Increased impositions on Turkey and demands for a Cyprus
resolution in a manner that could be interpreted as a "sellout"
would only feed "racist-nationalist" feelings of the silent
masses of central Anatolia. The failure of the pro-EU "Euro-Club"
in Turkey and the EU countries to realize this threat is indeed
making the threat even more dangerous.

The Turkish military has been very sensitive on the Cyprus issue,
because of its awareness of this national sensitivity on the
Cyprus problem.

Thinking that the Anatolian people, who has lost hundreds of
their sons in the 1974 intervention on the island to prevent
total annihilation of the Turkish Cypriot people by Greek
Cypriots, could be convinced to accept a Cyprus withdrawal before
a resolution on the island that would be acceptable to Turkish
Cypriots and which would safeguard Turkey's rights on the island,
would be naive. Such an understanding would be condemned in an
election as "treason" and would be buried in the election box.

Neither Turkish military, intellectuals or politicians can dare
to commit such a mistake.

If the government compromises on Cyprus for the sake of a
resolution before the year end, the ruling parties will suffer a
humiliating defeat in the next elections. Besides, they will have
to be faced with the "treason" charge for years to come.

Thus, to avoid being forced to take a decision on Cyprus,
coalition partners may decide for an election in fall and thus
evade both the responsibility as well as possible pressures from
the EU with the pretext that in an election period no such
decision was possible.

Rise of nationalism

Another reality that pro-EU circles in Turkey and European
countries fail to recognize is the fact that pressures and
impositions on Turkey have been fuelling racist and nationalist
ideologies.

It would of course be unacceptable for Europe who could not
tolerate to Le Pen in France and Haidar in Austria, to see a mass
shift in Anatolia to "racist nationalist" ideologies. Because of
the election system of the country such a development may make
the MHP the largest party in Parliament.

The only way to prevent this slide to the extreme right in
Anatolia is to adopt a new approach taking into consideration the
"emotional nature" of the Turkish people, and to avoid giving the
image that "concessions" were being made. The memory of the sons
of the Anatolian people lost in the 15-year fight with the PKK
are still very fresh. A political approach that was not devised
by taking into account the some 30,000 victims of the 15-year war
against the PKK, will be devoid of realism.

The dust is yet fresh on the photographs of the sons of the
Anatolian people lost in Cyprus or in the fight against
separatist terrorism. This reality has to be taken into account
by politicians both at home and abroad.

Finding a way out from the deepening crisis is of course the duty
of civilian politicians. It appears, however, that excluding an
early election there is no single option that may cater to a
solution of all these problems.

Although no one is publicly talking on it, a drastic development
in the health of ailing Prime Minister Ecevit could further
aggravate the already delicate situation and make Turkey
unmanageable. Such a negative development may even force an early
election option shelved.

Turkish politics which has no contingency plans for a post-Ecevit
era, may land into chaos. This chaos may disrupt the already
fragile balances in the economy. Under such a situation, if
rather than going to fresh polls, precious time is wasted by
searching other government models in Parliament, Turkish
democracy may plunge into a path of no return.

Though no one is talking on such a dangerous probability but the
threat remains there...

Ankara - Turkish Daily News