[A-List] Russia/NATO alliance: China shivers

[Sabri Oncu <soncu@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

Couldn't find the link. This comes from Chris Doss who is
associated with the Russia Journal. It was posted to Doug
Henwood's list. Chris' coverage of Russia is excellent.

By the way, I sometimes feel as if I am sending you unnecessary
information: "Russia ends Cold War with NATO, China shivers". Is
this too deep an insight?

Sabri

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ANALYSIS-Russia ends Cold War with NATO, China shivers
By Brian Rhoads


BEIJING, May 29 (Reuters) - Beijing is watching warily as Moscow
cosies up with its old foe NATO, concerned that Russia's newly
forged alliance could in the long run bring the U.S.-led
coalition right up to China's borders.

Analysts and diplomats say Beijing has taken the formation of the
new NATO-Russia security council very quietly -- perhaps resigned
to having little say on Russia's bear hug with Europe and the
United States in the wake of the September 11 attacks.

But as the relationship was still in its early stages, and NATO
remained largely focused on Europe, they said China was unlikely
to be too concerned in the short term.

China would, however, keep an eye on how far Russia pursued its
military cooperation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation,
and whether the U.S. dominated security grouping made any
movements to expand toward Central Asia.

And Beijing would seek to mute the impact of the NATO deal
through other avenues of consultation and influence such as the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which links China, Russia and
four Central Asian states.

Chinese media coverage was largely neutral, and analysts said it
was too early to tell how Russia would behave in its new role.

"The founding of this forum is essentially different from Russia
joining NATO. It's just a start for the two and it is very hard
to predict how far Russia will go in military cooperation with
NATO," said Guo Zhenyuan of the China Institute for International
Studies.

WORRYING SHIFT

But Western diplomats in Beijing said the move would be a concern
for China. "It's probably something that is very much worrying
because there is a risk of isolation of China," said one.

China was eager to see where Moscow's motives lay -- was it truly
cosying up to NATO or would President Vladimir Putin use the
relationship to pursue a long-term goal of a more independent
foreign policy?

Before September 11, China and Russia had been forging a new
strategic relationship based mainly on their opposition to
Washington's planned missile defence systems and their opposition
to international meddling in other countries' affairs.

Chinese President Jiang Zemin and Putin signed a friendship
treaty last July that was supposed to cement that partnership.

But that changed after September 11.

China was caught by surprise by Putin's swift backing of the war
on terror, and disturbed months later as Russia made only mild
protestations against U.S. plans to abandon the Anti-Ballistic
Missile Treaty and pursue missile defence.

Beijing worries that a U.S. missile shield could neuter its small
nuclear arsenal and be stretched to cover Taiwan, which China
regards as a wayward province.

China also warily watched as the war on terror brought U.S.
troops into its backyard -- in Afghanistan, other Central Asian
states and even the Philippines.

Russian participation in the NATO forum -- bringing four of the
five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council together
leaving China on the outside -- was the latest turn and Chinese
officials were struggling to make sense of it.

"There is some confusion here about what the Russians really
want," said a Beijing-based diplomat.

WEST OR EAST

Some in China view Russia as "firmly tying its colours to the
mast of the West" and eventually shifting significantly toward
the Western camp, the diplomat said.

Another camp sees Putin pursuing a long-term goal of returning
Russia to a more significant international role with a separate
and independent foreign policy.

That would be preferred in Beijing, which has courted Moscow less
out of economic and trade interests than as a balance to the
United States, he said.

China and Russian trade remains a trickle -- except for Beijing's
imports of military hardware from Moscow.

The real test for China would come should NATO seek to expand
even further east -- perhaps into Kazakhstan in its Central Asian
back yard. A few years ago, Chinese officials told sceptical
Western diplomats that "NATO will
border China very soon."

"They are trying very, very hard to make sure that never
happens," one diplomat said.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Beijing to court its neighbours to
counter the U.S. presence, and attempt along with Moscow to
breathe some life into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

In the wake of the Afghan conflict, China embarked on a flurry of
diplomatic activity with its neighbours to shore up ties and
balance the uncomfortable U.S. presence in Central Asia.

As for the NATO deal, Russia was largely motivated by its
economic interests and it was highly unlikely Moscow would see
eye to eye regularly with its new found allies, analysts said.

"Leaning West or leaning East, Russia bases its relations with
NATO upon its national interests," Guo said.

"There is no denying that Russia is bettering its links with the
West. But the process is bound to be rife with all sorts of ups
and downs."