[A-List] Destructive destruction: The way we will live in 2032

[Sabri Oncu <soncu@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

This was posted to PEN-L with the following prefatory quotation:

["The prophecy of doom is made to avert its coming, and it would
be the height of injustice later to deride the 'alarmists'
because 'it did not turn out so bad after all.' To have been
wrong may be their merit." Hans Jonas]

Sabri

++++++++++++++++

The way we will live in 2032...

· Half the world will be short of water
· Urbanisation of 70% of land surface
· Another 2bn mouths to feed

Paul Brown, environment correspondent
Thursday May 23, 2002
The Guardian

The destruction of 70% of the natural world in 30 years, mass
extinction of species, and the collapse of human society in many
countries is forecast in a bleak report by 1,100 scientists
published yesterday.

The Global Environment Outlook, compiled for the UN, charts the
environmental degradation of the last 30 years since the first
world environment conference in Stockholm in 1972 and looks
forward to how the world might look by 2032.

Unless the world changes its current "markets first" approach,
the increase in building of roads, power lines, airports and
other infrastructure will disrupt wildlife breeding patterns and
wipe out species, particularly in coastal areas where most human
settlement is concentrated. Forests continue to disappear at an
alarming rate and 10% of land on which to grow food is lost
because of soil degradation.

More than half the world will be afflicted by water shortages,
with 95% of people in the Middle East with severe problems and
65% in the rest of Asia and the Pacific.

The Mediterranean coast will come under special pressure through
urban growth, inadequate waste water treatment, tourism and
intensively farmed crops.

But the report says it need not be like that. In richer countries
water and air pollution is down, species have been restored to
the wild, and forests are increasing in size.

The 450-page analysis was published in London yesterday partly to
shock world leaders into taking seriously the World Summit on
Sustainable Development, to be held in South Africa in August.

The last preparation meeting for the conference takes place in
Bali, Indonesia, next week, and many doubt that the agenda
reflects the urgency of the problem.

The report paints four possible futures for the world, including
the current pattern of free trade and short term profit at the
expense of the environment, which leads to disaster.

In a second, equally dangerous scenario, security considerations
dominate with fear of terror and mass immigration into rich
areas. It involves a world split into rich and poor, with freedom
of movement and democracy restricted and rich enclaves like
Europe and North America with barriers keeping out the poor and
desperate.

A third offers a strong policy based option where governments try
to protect the environment with international treaties with
varying degrees of success. The fourth, where all decisions are
based on sustainable development rather than short time gain and
greed, is the blueprint favoured by the report.

Klaus Toepfer, the UN Environment Programme executive director,
called for concrete actions and an iron political will to change
the existing pattern. "Without the environment there can never be
the kind of development needed to secure a fair deal for this or
future generations. It would be disastrous to ignore the picture
painted."

He said that under the "markets first" scenario the environment
and humans did not fare well. "The human footprint grows,
inflicting increasing damage.

"We now have hundreds of declarations, agreements, guidelines and
legally binding treaties designed to address environmental
problems and the threats they pose to wildlife and human health
and well being. Let us now find the political courage and
innovative financing needed to implement these deals and steer a
healthier, more prosperous course for planet Earth."

Tough action

Margaret Beckett, the environment secretary, who is going to
Bali, which has been painted as a junket for ministers and civil
servants, said it was vital to make progress to set a proper
agenda for action for the Earth summit.

The key aims for the meeting were to make progress on issues such
as clean water, energy supply and food security for developing
countries. She said tough action was needed now to avoid
potential environmental disaster in the 2030s. "There may not be
a world worth living in. History will see it as a tragic lost
opportunity if we fail to meet this challenge," she said.

Although the report paints a dismal picture of the last 30 years,
it points to some successes for treaties. The hole in the ozone
layer is at a record size, but the repair of the damage is
forecast to begin by 2032 because the use of ozone depleting
chemicals is being phased out.

Mr Toepfer said that he hoped that George Bush would come to the
Johannesburg summit to pledge support for a different world,
including plans for a World Environment Organisation, and
concrete projects like using renewable energy to give development
hope to two billion people without electricity. There was a plan
for the complete electrification of Africa with renewable
supplies.

But the report says time is short. Land degradation, because of
human activity, is already causing a crisis in agricultural
production in some areas. For example in Iraq, because of bad
irrigation practices, 30% of arable land has been abandoned
because of salt contamination. A water crisis is developing
across the whole of the Arab world as ground water is pumped out
faster than rain can replenish it. Seawater is increasingly being
drawn into underground freshwater supplies. For example, in
Madras in India salt has poisoned fresh supplies seven miles
inland.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, home of 25% of the world's
forest cover and 178 regions of special biodiversity, the
situation is already critical in 31 of them. "Biodiversity is
constantly under threat from habitat loss, land degradation, land
use change, deforestation and marine pollution," the report says.

Tony Juniper, director designate of Friends of the Earth, said:
"This report poses a stark choice between destructive policies
based on global market forces or embracing sustainable
development. Meeting the needs of billions of poor people while
protecting the environment is the great challenge posed to
political and industrial leaders by this report. Delaying action
is no longer an option. The Johannesburg summit must develop the
necessary change in direction."

Counting the cost

The bad news
· In 30 years 70% of the Earth's surface will be suffering severe
impacts of man's activities, destroying the natural world with
roads, mining and cities

· 1,183 species of birds, around 12% of the world's total, and
1,130 species of mammals, about a quarter, are threatened with
extinction

· One third of the world's fish stocks are depleted or
overexploited

· Concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could double
by 2050. The number of people affected by weather related
disasters has risen from 147 million a year to 211 million in 10
years

· There are 2.2 billion more mouths to feed than in 1972, and
there will be another 2 billion in 30 years

· Already 40% of the world is short of fresh water, in 30 years
this will rise to 50%. In west Asia this rises to 90%

· At least 15% of the Earth's surface is already degraded by
human activities

· Overgrazing causes 35% of soil degradation, deforestation 30%,
agriculture 27%

· More than a billion urban dwellers, mostly in Africa, Asia and
Latin America, live in slums. Another billion people will be
living in cities by 2010

· Half the world's rivers are seriously depleted and polluted.
About 60% of the 227 biggest are disrupted by dams and other
engineering works

· There are 4 billion cases of diarrhoea causing 2.2 million
deaths a year

· 2 billion people are at risk from malaria, and 2 million die a
year

· Contaminated shellfish causes an estimated 2.5 million cases of
infectious hepatitis annually, resulting in 25,000 deaths

· A fifth of the world's population is responsible for 90% of
consumption.Two thirds of the population, about 4 billion people,
live on less than $2 a day

And the good
· The hole in the ozone layer is being repaired because of an 85%
reduction in use of harmful chemicals in 114 countries

· The number of people with improved water supplies increased
from 4.1 billion to 4.9 billion in the last 10 years

· About 10% of the Earth, 12.18m hectares, is in protected areas
like national parks, five times as much as 30 years ago

· A moratorium on commercial whaling since 1986 is allowing
species to recover

· The amount of water abstracted for public supply in western
Europe fell by 10% in 10 years because of efficient use

· Emissions of most air pollutants in Europe have declined since
the early 80s

Full at:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,720502,00.ht
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