[A-List] US imperialism: Iraq

["Keaney Michael" <Michael.Keaney@xxxxxx>]

Saddam to face blitz and invasion 

IAN BRUCE
The Herald, 29 April 2002

      THE US is planning a massive air-led military
      onslaught to topple Saddam Hussein, involving up
      to 1000 bombing strikes a day followed by a ground
      invasion, Pentagon sources say.

      However, the campaign is likely to be delayed until
      the autumn or even next spring to allow time for
      increased production of precision-guided weapons,
      progress towards cooling the Israeli-Palestinian
      crisis, and a diplomatic offensive to bring key Arab
      allies like Saudi Arabia onside.

      At least one British armoured brigade of up to 5000
      men is likely to be requested as part of the US-led
      ground force thought necessary for a decisive
      invasion, numbering between 70,000 and 200,000
      troops.

      General Tommy Franks, the American officer in
      charge of the war in Afghanistan, has asked for at
      least five divisions and a massive air and naval
      backup to guarantee Saddam's fall.

      Pentagon planners are examining scenarios for an
      overwhelming concentration of air power, delivering
      round-the-clock precision strikes to reduce the
      need for troops on the ground and minimise allied
      casualties.

      The switch to a conventional western military
      solution marks the Bush administration's
      realisation that a coup would be unlikely to succeed
      and that proxy forces of Kurdish rebels and
      southern Shi'ite Arabs are too weak or unwilling to
      fight.

      It also signals a shift from the low-risk strategy of
      Afghanistan, where a relative handful of special
      forces working with local allies and a "cab rank" of
      on-call bombers shattered the Taliban and al
      Qaeda forces in weeks.

      The use of "smart" weapons to increase the punch
      of the air offensive will be the key to a successful
      attack. In the 1991 Gulf war, only about 8% of the
      bombs used were precision-guided. Nine out of 10
      weapons dropped in Afghanistan were designed for
      pinpoint accuracy.

      Boeing plants producing the £12,000 munitions
      kits, which turn iron bombs into smart weapons,
      are working overtime to increase output from 1500
      to 2000 a month.

      The US is already taking steps to widen the
      number of bases it would need for a sustained
      offensive, spending £90m for a new airfield in
      Oman, and constructing a hi-tech command centre
      in Qatar in case the Saudis deny use of the
      custom-built Prince Sultan headquarters near
      Riyadh.

      Attacks could also be mounted from Incirlik in
      Turkey, already a key element in enforcing the
      northern no-fly zone over Iraq, and from Bulgaria,
      eager to enhance its chances of Nato membership.
      Both the US and UK also have air and naval
      facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain.

      Despite warnings that any move against Iraq would
      be perceived as an attack on Islam by the Arab
      world, the US is confident that key allies would be
      relieved to be rid of the threat Saddam poses to his
      neighbours.

      A Pentagon official said: "It took six months to
      complete the build-up for the 1991 campaign.
      Weather conditions, the diplomatic scene in the
      region, and the Arab-Israeli confrontation are all
      factors to be considered.

      "No hard decisions have yet been taken, but the
      planning is under way. Britain would be a welcome
      part of any coalition. The contribution of the SAS to
      the Afghan campaign has been invaluable.

      "A regular UK armoured brigade fighting alongside
      our own troops would be the likely requested force
      level in a three to five division scenario. It's the kind
      of unit Britain could field without too much pain,
      small enough to be affordable and powerful enough
      to pack a punch in combat."

      Britain fielded 47,000 soldiers, sailors, and airmen
      in the Gulf war as part of a 500,000-strong
      coalition.

      Iraqi diplomats are expected to try to stall the return
      of UN weapons inspection teams at a meeting in
      New York next week. The last inspectors were
      expelled in 1998, prompting the imposition of
      economic sanctions.

      President George W Bush's determination to
      change the regime in Baghdad is based largely on
      Iraq's continuing and unmonitored attempts to
      develop a range of chemical, biological, and even
      nuclear weapons in defiance of UN resolutions.

      Iraq has more than 300,000 men under arms,
      including well-equipped Republican Guard
      divisions, helicopter gunships, and powerful artillery
      units with the potential for launching chemical and
      nerve-gas attacks.

Full article at:
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/archive/29-4-19102-0-19-54.html

Michael Keaney
Mercuria Business School
Martinlaaksontie 36
01620 Vantaa
Finland

michael.keaney@xxxxxx