Re: [A-List] US fiscal crisis

[bantam@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Sorry 'bout that ...

I have to read Michael's ever-welcome messages in reply mode because
they're suddenly coming through unwrapped -and then I punched 'send' by
accident as I reached for the ciggies.  Anyway, I agree very much with
the thrust of Goldman's argument, but wonder why he doesn't point to
potential shocks already in the system.  All that's needed is for
something to stop capital pouring into the US at $2bn per day.  Internal
factors include evidence that the ever-so-indebted US consumer is
reaching her card's limit, that we might be only days away from new
revelations about large accounting fibs by large players, that the US's
groaning auto makers might find steel a bit dear  post-steel-tariff and
sales a little slow with rising oil prices and the fact (or so it would
seem to me) that those who did not buy cars at zero interest are not
likely to buy now, that telcos look absolutely embarrassed by excess
capacity (exacerbated by all this wireless hype we're wearing at the
moment).  External factors include the possibility of a Japanese banking
system having to recall its overseas investments to make up for the fact
its reserves to loans ratio is based on equity holdings valued at
pre-Nikkei-swoon levels.  I suppose a good imagination can conjure such
lists at any point in time, but the above look neither ridiculously
unlikely nor necessarily years away.  What say you?

Cheers,
Rob.