[A-List] The Policy Network: China

["Keaney Michael" <Michael.Keaney@xxxxxx>]

Forget the waffle that pads much of this article -- what's significant
is news of yet another high profile junket involving Peter Mandelson,
whose travels are undoubtedly blessed by Tony and HMG. Since leaving the
Cabinet for the second time Mandelson has collected more air miles than
most airline pilots, with "chance visits" to Israel, Syria and the US
(not only for Bush's state of the union address, but to lecture the
Council on Foreign Relations on transatlantic ties too). Now he's been
in China, not only to give yet another lecture but also to advance UK
interests in such a way as to create "clear blue water" between Tony and
Dubya.


Calum MacLeod: What Mandelson sought on the Great Wall of China
'His fancy tickled by Deng's "third time lucky", he questioned this
writer for every detail'
The Independent, 04 March 2002

Ignore the denials of renewed Cabinet ambition. Peter Mandelson wants
back in the firing line, and he's gunning for the top job again. His
role model? Canny Chinese Communist Deng Xiaoping, twice banished from
the corridors of power, but whose third coming finally led to the big
office at the end, and the undying love of the people.

We sat in a car speeding to the Great Wall last October. That brutal,
imperial folly stretched before us, but Mandelson preferred the more
recent past. His fancy tickled by Deng's third-time-lucky career,
Mandelson questioned this correspondent for every detail on the man from
Sichuan. Vilified by the nation in the 1960s, disgraced again in the
1970s, Deng recovered to reinvent Chinese Communism, enrich the masses,
and rule from 1979 until his death in 1997. Now wouldn't Mandy like to
bounce back in such style.

Over-interpretation? Most likely. But what was the architect of New
Labour doing in Red China? No less than sowing the seeds of democracy by
lecturing on his own party's reinvention. "I gave a talk at the Central
Communist Party School," he told me. "And when I mentioned the 'prawn
cocktail offensive', I could see all these cadres writing down 'prawn
cocktail', and reaching for their dictionaries."

They will find that the lesson of Labour reaching out to big business in
the mid-Eighties has already been learnt, as entrepreneurs infiltrate
communist party ranks nationwide, despite the opposition of
conservatives. And Mandelson's broader message, of challenging
entrenched views, changing policy and presentation to suit changing
times, also strikes a chord with party leaders on the brink of wholesale
generational change.

This May, the Party General Secretary, Jiang Zemin, or his
heir-apparent, Hu Jintao, will also lecture at the Party School, for the
graduating ceremonies of China's future leaders. Yet thespeech delivered
there carries far wider consequence, serving notice of the likely policy
themes at this autumn's crucial 16th Communist Party Congress.

Forget Bournemouth or Brighton, and even China's pantomime parliament,
which holds its annual session in Beijing this week. The real business
of ruling China and setting her course is decided at party congresses
convened every five years. And interest is heightened this year by the
expected new line-up, spring chickens in their late fifties, and the
hope that they will place party reform back on the agenda.

In the mid-Eighties, as Labour wooed the business vote, Chinese
reformers lobbied for political change to match the heresy of abandoning
Marxist economics. The Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989 silenced such
debate, and the bitter example of Soviet troubles has been invoked ever
since to justify the party's monopoly on power.

Combined with rising living standards, it remains a powerful argument.
Outside Beijing, I introduced Mandelson to Zhang Tong, a wisened and
wise village elder, one of the representatives of China's 700 million
peasants. "It is still better to have a one party system," Zhang told
him. "China is too big; if there are many parties there will be chaos.
We need a strong central government."

Over 80 years ago, Mao Zedong chose the foreign creed of communism.
Today, his successors also look abroad for answers. While
self-preservation remains their ultimate goal, party think-tanks study
New Labour, and social democrats across Europe, for clues to managing
change in China. Mandelson and other Third Way luminaries are frequently
invited to share their experiences.

For now, media control allows Beijing to censor annoying interference
such as President Bush's hope, in a speech to Chinese students last
month, that one day China's people will choose their own leaders. Yet
those same people, from protesting peasantry to swelling middle classes,
are already demanding more accountability and transparency. The poll
success of New Labour shows Beijing the benefits of being more
representative. This autumn's congress should invite businessmen to the
party, in an important symbolic step formalising current practice.

There is plenty more to learn. The reformist wish list includes
independent judiciary and media, effective supervisory organs, and the
expansion of "riceroots" elections. But the very concept of non-party
activity is alien. "Government officials asked me: 'How can we create
more NGOs'," said Mandelson in Beijing. "I said: 'No, you must create
the space for real NGOs'."

China's transformation from Communist rule remains the greatest
challenge for the forces of liberalism. Markets alone may not be enough.
The party must change its ossified political system, or risk falling to
the pressures of a quasi-capitalist economy. Is Hu Jintao the John
Smith, Tony Blair or even the Mikhail Gorbachev of China? Of only one
thing can we be certain: the Middle Kingdom's capacity to surprise, and
survive, much like Mandy himself.

Full article at:
http://argument.independent.co.uk/commentators/story.jsp?story=251121

Michael Keaney
Mercuria Business School
Martinlaaksontie 36
01620 Vantaa
Finland

michael.keaney@xxxxxx