Re: [A-List] Argentine spontaneous insurrection

[Chris Burford <cburford@xxxxxxxxxx>]

At 22/12/01 17:50 -0300, Nestor wrote:

> I am so sorry that you are in London and I am in Buenos Aires. The kind of
> imperialist ideologue that you are representing here are usually well 
> disposed
> of by us here.


The following is the closest to the voice of British finance capitalism - 
imperialism - on Argentina that I can find this morning -
the Lex column in the Financial Times, which advises investors.


> The world appears to have done a better job at foreseeing Argentina's 
> debacle than its unfortunate citizens. A default - increasingly priced in 
> with Argentina's bonds trading at a quarter of face value - is not 
> expected to disrupt the financial system, even though the market is 
> discounting the destruction of some $65bn of value. Lessons from Mexico, 
> south-east Asia and Russia have been well learnt.
>
> Spanish companies are most exposed to the threat of default and 
> devaluation, but the risks are manageable, provided there is no wildfire 
> contagion beyond the pampas. BBVA and SCH - as well as other banks with 
> Argentine divisions - face the double threat of writedowns on sovereign 
> loans and those to local borrowers. Some 70 per cent of system loans is 
> dollar-denominated, of which only an estimated 10 per cent is owed by 
> dollar earners. Provisions have been taken, but not with the likelihood of 
> a chaotic devaluation in mind. Writedowns may well exceed the equity 
> values of their Argentine investments, but even complete write-offs would 
> amount to less than 10 per cent of the Spanish banks' market value. They 
> are likely to recapitalise because of their regional franchises, and may 
> end up gaining share - albeit of a collapsed market.
>
> Global industrial companies face an economy going into a deeper downturn, 
> with devaluation taking an extra toll on earnings. But it is a small, 
> closed market. Energy companies such as Repsol, with substantial assets to 
> write down, are most vulnerable. That is appropriate in a country plunged 
> into darkness.




I too was disappointed that Nestor did not give URL's for marxist sources 
on Argentina. It is not clear to me how Nestor would deal with the above 
imperialists whether he is in England or Argentina

A national revolt, with many national flags and singing of the national 
anthem as described by Pablo, is heroic and resouceful, but the politics 
are national.

> I phoned my mother to ease her. Then she told me that President de la Rúa 
> had renounced. Then I knew that I could go home.

And in fact the fall of de la Rua was what the US and the IMF had already 
factored in, and actually were waiting for:

FT Dec 21

"No bailout without reform plan, says US"

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3R6V0MIVC&live=true


"Earlier this week, Paul O'Neill, US Treasury secretary, insisted that the 
US would not immediately lend financial assistance to Argentina, saying it 
was the duty of officials in Buenos Aires to put the country on a "sound 
financial footing".

... the IMF said it would work closely with the new government, but added 
it was the incoming administration's duty to "come up with an economic 
programme that is sustainable" before aid is forthcoming.

Experts said that the Bush administration and the IMF were clearly waiting 
for two steps to be taken by the interim government - to allow a default, 
or at least a restructuring , of the country's $132 bn in outstanding debt, 
and to devalue the Argentinian peso.'

,,, Charles Calomiris, an economist at Columbia University ... said the US 
and IMF negligence could be traced back to the Clinton administration, 
saying the Clinton Treasury department was equally complicit by not forcing 
Argentina to make tough decisions.'


I would like Nestor to be more aggressive in fact, to be more effectively 
aggressive against this line of propaganda. But I suggest that talking of 
revolvers on the internet is extremely unwise.

If marxists cannot discuss what reforms are revolutionary and what reforms 
are reformist they isolate themselves from lists where the ideological 
battle should indeed be joined.

I hope Nestor will therefore provide references for a specifically marxist 
strategy for Argentina now.

I myself cannot see one based on a purely national solution. I think the 
only hope is for greater coordination among all those progressive, or if 
you prefer, radical working people globally, that the whole global system 
of capitalism can make Russians use potatoes as currency one year, threaten 
ordinary people in Argentina this year,  and do the same for Australia in 2003.

Chris Burford