[A-List] Britain to join euro

[Chris Burford <cburford@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Michael Keaney 24 Sept:- British takeover of EU


> Lest any are confused by the subject line, I'm sure that Gerhard
> Schr=F6der and others have their own ideas about the future direction of
> the EU. But for the time being a coalition of interests has formed within
> the EU (grouped around The Policy Network) which is serving the cause of
> greater British involvement in the EU very well. Naturally the British
> state aspires to leadership -- there could be no other role, after all.
> But the disarray of the French and the new assertiveness of Germany allows
> Britain to piggy-back on some of its partners. Spain is being bought off
> by the ultimate prize of Gibraltar, which, all rhetoric to the contrary,
> is an outdated and expensive piece of land serving no geopolitical purpose
> whatsoever for the UK. Rather like Northern Ireland. Only misty-eyed punk
> Thatcherites will shed tears for the loss of these irrelevances. Under New
> Labour British imperialism is being thoroughly modernised, and the first
> acquisition is no less than Europe itself. Or so the plan goes.


FT 30 November:

 UK economy closer to eurozone


http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3SK7QRIUC&live=true&tagid=IXLB0PYY8CC


> UK economy closer to eurozone, says OECD By Ed Crooks and Brian Groom in
> London Published: November 26 2001
>
>
> Britain's economy has become more closely aligned with the eurozone than
> many countries that are already members, according to the Organisation for
> Economic Co-operation and Development, the Paris-based rich countries'
> think-tank.
>
> The OECD believes the British economy will have grown by 2.3 per cent this
> year, compared with 1.6 per cent for the eurozone. For next year it has
> forecast growth of 1.7 per cent for Britain and 1.4 per cent for the
> eurozone - well within the usual margins of forecasting error.
>
>
> ....
>
>
> Vincent Koen, of the OECD, said: "If you think about Germany, the sick man
> of Europe, then it may seem appealing to contrast that with the UK's
> strong performance. But in fact the eurozone's average performance is very
> close to Britain's."
>
> Since 1999, average growth in the eurozone has been slightly stronger than
> in Britain, he added.
>
> By 2003, the OECD expects the two economies' output gaps - a measure of
> their spare capacity - to be similar.
>
> The OECD report was generally favourable about the British economy, saying
> the credibility of the Bank of England gave it room to cut interest rates
> further, and that Mr Brown's projections for public borrowing were
> "sufficiently prudent", despite criticism from the European Commission.

Much may depend on how Brown and Blair handle their personal skirmishing
but the signals seem to be that Blair's ambitions for world historical
statesmanship now include taking Britain into the euro. His speech last
week attacked and refuted political ans constitutional arguments against.
The government must be aware of the trend of analysis expressed for example
in this OECD report, and the markets themselves lowered the exchange rate
of the pound to the euro in anticipation of Blair making a fuller commitment.

But Blair is too clever and not powerful enough to sustain a British
takeover of the EU. Gestures like the fact that Germany is hosting the
Afghan conference are also part of the management of perceptions and interests.

If one of the aims of this list is to look at future developments, I
suggest that within 10 years we could see a South East Asia free trade area
of 1.8 billion people, revolving around the Chinese economy, and Britain in
the euro. Euroland with its surrounding dependent states might still not be
as competitive as the USA as a centre of global capital but as a mass of
capital it could increase momentum for a more multi-polar world.

Chris Burford