[A-List] Re: A-List digest, Vol 1 #23 - 7 msgs

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The A-List Digest

Today's Topics:

   1. Pakistan is in danger of falling apart (a-list-admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
   2. Israeli "intelligence" (a-list-admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
   3. Britain/US split? (a-list-admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
   4. Europe/US rivalry (a-list-admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
   5. accessing the message archive (a-list-admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
   6. Republican contrarians ruminate on the dollar (a-list-admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
   7. CIA met bin Laden in July  (Le Figaro) (a-list-admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)

--__--__--

Message: 1
To: "Rad Green" ,
	"Leninist International"
Cc:
Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2001 22:54:15 -0800
From: a-list-admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [A-List] Pakistan is in danger of falling apart
Reply-To: a-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Pakistan is in danger of falling apart

Regional separatism and support for Islamist groups are growing

William Dalrymple
Tuesday October 23, 2001
The Guardian

A couple of years ago, on a visit to the North West Frontier, I
called in on Khan Abdul Wali Khan. The Khan had once been one of the
Pathan's great leaders; but he was now a frail old man. We sat in his
summer house in the middle of his irrigated garden. The Khan poured
jasmine tea and asked me about my impressions of the area. I told him
what I had just seen at the nearby Darra arms bazaar: hundreds of men
busy manufacturing home-made assault rifles and anti-aircraft cannon.
"Yes," said the Khan. "There are now more than one million
Kalashnikovs in this province alone. It has got completely out of
control." He shook his head sadly. "I feel," he said, "as if I'm
living on an ammunition dump."

I thought of the Khan this week as anti-American protests spread
across Pakistan. Although there has been unrest in Karachi and a bomb
in Rawalpindi, it is among the Pathans that the rioting has been most
serious: a cinema, the UN compound and a bazaar burned down by
Pathans in Quetta, and four more shot dead in a village nearby;
significantly, the local Baluchis have played virtually no part in
the riots. Worse still on the frontier, where the Pathans are from
the same tribes as their cousins in the Taliban, Peshawar has
disappeared into a miasma of tear gas and police shooting, with at
least half a dozen dead.

Machismo is to the North West Frontier what religion is to the
Vatican. Bandoliers hang over the men's shoulders; grenades are
nonchalantly tucked into their pockets. I once walked into a Khyber
tea house to find a group of Pathan mojahedin huddled in a corner
dismantling a live landmine with a broken screw driver. None of the
other tea drinkers blinked.

The Pathans have never been completely conquered, at least not since
the time of Alexander the Great. They have seen off centuries of
invaders, and they retain the mixture of self-confidence,
independence and suspicion that this has produced. Beyond the
checkpoints on the edge of Peshawar, tribal law - based on the tribal
council and the blood feud - rules unchallenged. The dominant Afridi
tribe controls the Afghan heroin trade and kidnapping and murder are
virtually cottage industries.

It takes very little for latent discontent of the Pathans with the
Pakistani government to erupt, but this latest wave of riots is on a
different scale to anything since partition, raising the perennial
question as to the future of Pakistan - can the centre hold?

If many in Pakistan now question the long-term viability of the
state, it is certain that none would be so ready to separate
themselves from it as the Pathans. Throughout the 1940s, Wali Khan's
father, known as Padshah Khan, passionately opposed the creation of
Pakistan, leading the Pathans to side with Gandhi's Congress against
Jinnah's Muslim League. During this period the Pathans believed that
they would gain their own state, allied to India, just as East
Pakistan - modern Bangladesh - was originally separated by thousands
of miles from its western wing.

In the bloodshed of partition, this Pakhtun state never happened, but
the dashed hopes left the Pathans estranged from the idea of
Pakistan. Padshah Khan spent the 1960s and 1970s struggling in vain
for a union with the equally disgruntled Pathans in Afghanistan to
form a new state - Pakhtunistan, straddling the Durand Line (the
hated frontier drawn up by the British in 1893 which broke the tribes
in two). But the Pakhtun nationalist spirit survived his death in
1988, and has mutated into a very different Islamist form under a
variety of Taliban-like groups such as the Jamiat Ulema i-Islam
(JUI). If, as seems quite possible, Afghanistan breaks up in the
aftermath of the American assault, with the Tajik Northern Alliance
controlling the north, and a Pathan post-Taliban successor state
taking the south, then demands for the creation of Pakhtunistan can
only gain momentum.

Regional separatism is only one of the problems now faced by
Pakistan. President Musharraf's decision to support the American
assault on the Taliban, against the wishes of more than 80% of his
population, has greatly strengthened Islamist groups, bringing them
support from swathes of the population not normally part of their
constituency.

Serious civilian casualties in Afghanistan or heavy-handed action by
the Pakistani security forces would further radicalise the
population. Last week Musharraf sacked two leading pro-Taliban
generals and placed three pro-Taliban religious leaders (including
the spiritual leader of the JUI) under house arrest; but after a
decade of Talibanisation, Pakistan has never been closer to an
Islamic revolution, or at least an Islamist coup. Such a coup would
put nuclear weapons into Islamist hands: Bin Laden's wildest dream.
These strains and tensions within Pakistan can only increase in the
months ahead. It is likely to be a bumpy ride.

· William Dalrymple is the author of The Age of Kali: Indian Travels
and Encounters (HarperCollins)


-------------------------------------------
Macdonald Stainsby
Rad-Green List: Radical anti-capitalist environmental discussion.
http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/listinfo/rad-green
----
Leninist-International: Building bridges in the tradition of V.I. Lenin.
http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/listinfo/leninist-international
----
In the contradiction lies the hope.
                                     --Bertholt Brecht




--__--__--

Message: 2
Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2001 14:40:02 +0200
To: "A-List (E-mail)"
From: a-list-admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [A-List] Israeli "intelligence"
Reply-To: a-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

News direct from Paul Wolfowitz's man in Scotland. Only the Israelis
could come up with a scheme that links together all *their* enemies in
one huge dastardly plot. And in whose interest is it for Pakistan's
"shadowy ISI" to "establish" links between Iraq and al-Qaeda? Since when
was the ISI a reliable source?

Israeli intelligence warned US days before attacks

IAN BRUCE
The Herald, 31 October 2001

      ISRAEL'S military intelligence service, Aman,
      issued an urgent warning of an impending
      terrorist "spectacular" against America, several
      days before the suicide bombers flew
      passenger airliners into New York's Trade
      Towers and the Pentagon on September 11.

      Aman had no details of the targets, but picked
      up enough indicators of major terrorist activity
      from a combination of informants and electronic
      eavesdropping to send out an alert, which also
      covered US interests in Britain, France and
      Germany.

      Much of the Israeli intelligence centred on Imad
      Mughniyeh, head of the Iranian-backed
      Hizbollah movement's foreign operations
      section, and on Dr Ayman Al Zawahiri, the
      Egyptian-born terrorist mastermind reputed to
      be Osama bin Laden's chosen successor.

      The Israelis say they have evidence linking both
      men to agents representing SSO, Iraq's foreign
      intelligence service, and believe Baghdad has
      provided finance and logistical support to them.

      Links between the terrorist network and Iraq
      have been established by Pakistan's shadowy
      ISI agency and by the Czech Republic's
      counter-intelligence service.

      Salah Suleiman, an Iraqi SSO agent, was
      detained on the Pakistan border last October
      after a series of trips into Taliban-controlled
      territory to meet bin Laden. After interrogation,
      he was deported.

      Iraqi agent, Ahmad Khalil Ibrahim Samir Al-Ani,
      has been expelled by the Czechs for "conduct
      incompatible with his diplomatic status". They
      had been monitoring his activities after a tip-off
      from Israel that he was planning to bomb Radio
      Free Europe, a station financed by the CIA that
      broadcasts to Iraq and Iran. Baghdad regards
      the broadcasts as "an act of aggression".

      During the surveillance, they photographed
      Al-Ani with Mohammed Atta, the al Qaeda agent
      believed to have flown the first plane into the
      World Trade Centre.

Full article at:
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/archive/31-10-19101-0-24-15.html



--__--__--

Message: 3
Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2001 14:47:35 +0200
To: "A-List (E-mail)"
From: a-list-admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [A-List] Britain/US split?
Reply-To: a-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

World must tackle peace agenda, says Hain=20

Minister says greater global unity is needed to confront broader issues
if war on terrorism is to be won

Stuart Millar
Wednesday October 31, 2001
The Guardian

A senior government minister warned yesterday that forthcoming
international negotiations on climate change, development and
trade could influence the chances of long-term success in the campaign
against terrorism.=20

Peter Hain, the Foriegn Office minister, said the international
community would have to demonstrate greater political will and
coherence in tackling broader global issues if it was to have any chance
of defeating al-Qaida and other terror groups. "The war
against terrorism is unlike other wars, because we cannot wait until the
war is over to win the peace," he said. "Winning the peace is
part of winning the war."=20

Mr Hain was speaking at a conference in London organised by the Royal
United Services Institute and the Guardian to examine the
key issues and challenges facing the international community in the
aftermath of September 11.=20

In the first practical example of attempts to implement the cooperative
world order outlined by Tony Blair in his speech to the Labour
conference earlier this month, Mr Hain put the focus firmly on a series
of crucial conferences from now into next year.=20

This week, talks are taking place in Morocco for the United Nations'
framework document on climate change, while international
trade negotiations begin next week in the Qatar capital, Doha.=20

In March next year, the UN is holding the financing for development
conference in Monterrey, Mexico, which will be followed later in
2002 by the UN's world summit on sustainable development in
Johannesburg. These events, Mr Hain said, would provide
governments with a chance to show they had learned the lessons of
September 11 and were willing to use the existing international
framework to better effect.=20

He said: "The message from al-Qaida is that enhanced business as usual
will not be enough.=20

"We need a step change in the urgency with which we tackle the peace
agenda, in the amount we invest in it - not only financially
but in political will and ingenuity."=20

He added: "We do not need new texts, new principles and treaties to win
the peace. What we need now is better implementation to
translate the texts we have into better lives for real people."=20

His comments may also be read as a veiled warning to the US that the
doggedly unilateralist position adopted by George Bush
since he arrived in the White House is no longer acceptable.=20

The summits are the first key test of Washington's willingness to
re-engage with the international community on global initiatives to
tackle diverse issues, such as global warming, third world poverty and
the Aids epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.=20

"These are the security challenges of the world after September 11," Mr
Hain said. "The grand coalitions of the 21st century will not
be coalitions of government alone, because governments acting alone
cannot provide solutions to this kind of problem."=20

But Mr Hain sidestepped questions about whether this ambitious vision
could ever be realistically implemented when the US and
Britain had made so many deals with countries previously regarded as
pariahs to prop up the coalition for military action in
Afghanistan.=20

Jonathan Eyal, a senior fellow of the RUSI, said a price was being paid
to maintain the coalition which could affect future success.=20

"We have heard nothing recently about the need for democracy in the
Gulf, or about the export of this arid form of Islam coming from
the Gulf.=20

"We have three central Asian countries which do not have an accountable
system of government, and nobody is saying much about
Chechnya in the last few weeks.=20

Mr Eyal asked: "Are we not repeating exactly the same problems we have
in the past, acquiring fairweather friends and having bigger
difficulties later on?"=20

But Mr Hain replied only that these issues needed to be addressed by the
new world order.

Full article at:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,583838,00.html

Michael Keaney
Mercuria Business School
Martinlaaksontie 36
01620 Vantaa
Finland

michael.keaney@xxxxxx



--__--__--

Message: 4
Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2001 16:59:40 +0200
To: "A-List (E-mail)"
From: a-list-admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [A-List] Europe/US rivalry
Reply-To: a-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

As promised, related to the "Britain/US split" thread is this current
development, very reminiscent of the Westland affair that almost brought
down the Thatcher government in 1986. Italy was involved then, too, as
the government's preferred bidder for Westland was the US/Italian
Sikorsky-Fiat consortium, rather than the European consortium involving
British Aerospace that Defence Secretary Michael Heseltine was trying to
put together. The split within the Cabinet resulted in the resignations
of Heseltine and Leon Brittan, Trade and Industry Secretary, who went on
to become Deputy Head of the European Commission and got his revenge on
his former sponsor (Thatcher) by pushing forward European integration
(and incidentally helping to put into place the infrastructure to help
the continuing UK "takeover" of the EU apparatus -- Brittan has been
succeeded as Deputy by none other than Neil Kinnock, arch-"moderniser"
of the Labour Party during the 1980s and one of the few, if not the
only, survivor of the Commission headed up by Jacques Santer).

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D

Airbus project pullout prompts tussle in Rome

Financial Times, Oct 26, 2001
By JAMES BLITZ

A big tussle was developing last night in the centre-right Italian
government led by Silvio Berlusconi
over a decision to quit a flagship European defence project.=20

Antonio Martino, defence minister, insisted that the government would
stand by a decision to quit the
Airbus 400M programme, a joint project to build a large military
transport, despite objections from
Renato Ruggiero, foreign minister.=20

"This aircraft is not necessary for Italy's military requirements. . .
we have to spend our resources on
other projects," said Mr Martino, a Eurosceptic figure, on national
television.=20

On Wednesday night, Mr Ruggiero sharply criticised the move, saying he
had not been consulted, and
that he hoped the decision "was not the final one".=20

Mr Ruggiero said if there were economic and financial reasons for
quitting the Airbus programme,
those arguments must be heard. "But the overall decision has got to be
justified," he said. "I am
certainly extremely sensitive to arguments that would have led to a
different decision being taken."=20

Mr Ruggiero, former head of the World Trade Organisation, is a career
diplomat and apolitical figure.
His entry into Mr Berlusconi's government was promoted by President
Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, the head
of state, as a means of signalling Italy's continued commitment to the
European Union.=20

However, Mr Berlusconi has made little secret of his wish to forge a
special bilateral relationship with
the US. Mr Martino had admitted earlier this week that he had "many
personal doubts" about
continuing with the A400M programme. Industry analysts think Italy wants
to enhance co-operation in
this field with Lockheed Martin or Boeing in the US.=20

Some European diplomats think Italy's decision to quit the project
explains why Jacques Chirac,
French president, excluded Mr Berlusconi from a mini-summit with Britain
and Germany in Ghent last
Friday to discuss the attack on Afghanistan's Taliban regime.=20

But whatever the reason, Italy's centre-left opposition thinks tensions
between Mr Berlusconi and Mr
Ruggiero are emerging as the main fault-line in the centre-right
government. "This may be a short-term
problem, one that reflects the new government's initial difficulties
working out a foreign policy line," said
a leading centre-left figure. "But we may be on the verge of a major
rift between the two, with
significant repercussions."=20

Another sign of growing tension over Italy's foreign policy came in a
newspaper interview with
Francesco Cossiga, a former president.=20

He called on Mr Berlusconi to implement the immediate closure of Nato's
military bases in Italy,
arguing that Italy was being ignored by the US and its main European
partners.=20

"We must accept that Nato is finished," said Mr Cossiga. "Its only role
is to help the US dress up its
military operations. We must start raising the problem of Nato's
military bases in Italy. Closing them is
the only way to avoid Italy falling into league division two."

Full article at:
http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/articles.html?print=3Dtrue&id=3D=
01
1026001201

Michael Keaney
Mercuria Business School
Martinlaaksontie 36
01620 Vantaa
Finland

michael.keaney@xxxxxx



--__--__--

Message: 5
Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2001 19:22:23 +0000
To: A-List
From: a-list-admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [A-List] accessing the message archive
Reply-To: a-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The message archive is now accessible without need for a password.

The archive address is:

http://lists.econ.utah.edu/pipermail/a-list/



--__--__--

Message: 6
Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2001 19:30:41 +0000
To: A-List
From: a-list-admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [A-List] Republican contrarians ruminate on the dollar
Reply-To: a-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

PFV 10/23 MONEYCHANGER - DR. WALKER TODD ON THE AMAZING LEVITATING US =
 DOLLAR

   A MONEYCHANGER Interview:

  DR. WALKER TODD ON THE AMAZING LEVITATING US DOLLAR

  Dr. Walker Todd is no stranger to Moneychanger readers. He was born  in=20
Murfreesboro, Tennessee and graduated from Vanderbilt University.  He holds=
=20
a master's degree from the University of Wisconsin, a Ph.D.  in French from=
=20
Columbia University, and a J.D. from Boston  University School of Law. For=
=20
20 years he worked for Federal Reserve  banks as a lawyer and economist. In=
=20
1981, he served on the U.S.  negotiating team that secured the release of=20
52 US hostages from  Iran and established an international tribunal plan=20
for adjudicating  claims against Iran. Today he is an independent economic=
=20
and legal  consultant living in Chagrin Falls, Ohio Dr. Todd kindly made=20
time  for this interview on June 8, 2001. Although that dates=20
the  interview somewhat (because we know what happened=20
immediately  afterward, like the dollar index topping) and 9-11 has changed=
=20
the  scene tremendously, this interview is still very valuable today.  It=20
offers us clues us about the troubles the US dollar faces, not to  mention=
=20
those faced by the "Masters of the Universe, the dollar's  managers in the=
=20
Fed and US treasury. Dr. Todd also offers us some  danger signs to watch=20
for cracks in the dollar.

  MONEYCHANGER Frankly, I'm baffled. The US dollar obviously holds the  key=
=20
to financial events in the near future, but how can you explain  its=20
historically high valuation? Even in the face of the long bond  market=20
falling, Greenspan dropping interest rates, and a record  balance of=20
payments deficit, the dollar just keeps on riding high.  And this=20
surrealistic script is played out against the background of  an obviously=20
topping stock market.

  TODD We were in a similar period in the early 1980s. Everyone likes  to=20
forget that. From roughly August '82 until September '86,  conditions were=
=20
very much similar to today's, considering the US  dollar versus competing=20
foreign currencies, the posture of US  interest rates versus major foreign=
=20
interest rates, and the like.  Conditions at home were also similar. The=20
dollar had become very  much too strong at that time.

  Manufacturing was in a world of hurt. If you'll recall that period  saw=20
the first wave of wipe-outs in the auto industry, and some major  steel=20
downsizing. LTV Steel in Cleveland filed for bankruptcy in '86  or '87. And=
=20
the US was running what at the time looked like a record  trade deficit=20
(current account deficit).

  These conditions are similar, and at the same time the stock market  was=
=20
in the middle of a big boom. Stock prices rose steadily from  roughly 8/82=
=20
to 9/86.

  A strong dollar is good for Wall Street. Since most people who=20
make  their living on Wall Street live within a 50 - 100 mile radius=20
of  New York city, they don't care much what happens to the rest of=20
the  country -- as long as Wall Street prospers.

  The US Treasury Secretary, of course, always has to be concerned  with=20
what Wall Street thinks of the Treasury. Nevertheless, he also  represents=
=20
the US public's interests in maintaining their treasury.  Since 1934 the=20
Treasury has been charged exclusively with managing  the dollar's foreign=20
exchange value. At the end of the day,  responsibility for the dollar -=20
strong, weak, or whatever you have  -- resides at the Treasury department.=
=20
 From roughly mid-`95 onward  Clinton's administration touted the virtues=20
of a strong dollar  policy to cure foreign country's ills. The theory was=20
that we would  sacrifice a little bit of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to=
=20
help  bail out countries struggling to pay their debts. How do=20
we  sacrifice? We expand US imports by keeping the dollar strong. But=20
if  you're importing it, it doesn't add to GDP, does it? This theory=20
was  triggered off Mexico's troubles at the end of 1994.

  Mexico, however, failed to recover before the next wave of=20
defaults  began. That began in east Asia in summer 1997 with Thailand,=20
and  eventually embraced Korea, Indonesia, and a bunch of others. As  those=
=20
countries began going down the tubes, once again the foreign  policy=20
Establishment advisors to the Treasury began touting the  virtues of the=20
strong dollar and expanded US imports to help these  countries out of a=20
jam. In a meeting once I heard a staff economist  of the Council on Foreign=
=20
Relations say, "Well, it's going to cost  us half a point of GAP to get=20
east Asia out of this slump -- but  that's not much."

  What's the problem with that line of reasoning? The half a point of  GDP=
=20
never comes out of hide of Wall Street or the New York financial  community.

  When they're talking about giving up half a point of GDP,=20
they're  talking about shutting down steel mills, automobile plants,=20
and  turning off farmers' exports. That's exactly what's been=20
happening  ever since. We're just now living at the crest of the wave.

MONEYCHANGER This was Rubin's and Clinton's idea?

  TODD It was. To give Rubin some credit, though, he was not a=20
wildly  cheerleading, enthusiastic supporter of this policy.  Instead,=20
Larry Summers was.

  MONEYCHANGER So this was Summers' policy.

  TODD Yes, and remember he started out as an assistant secretary=20
for  international affairs, became under-secretary for international,  then=
=20
deputy secretary, and finally Treasury secretary at the end of  the Clinton=
=20
years.

  It was Larry who tended to run international policy at the Treasury.

  MONEYCHANGER Was he not a Kissinger prot=E9g=E9?

  TODD No, his guru was a Harvard economics professor named Martin =
 Feldstein.

  MONEYCHANGER Who used to belong to the president's council of  economic=20
advisors.

  TODD Yes, under Reagan.

  MONEYCHANGER How long can a currency maintain a low interest rate  policy=
=20
and run high current account deficits? Both force down a  currency's value.=
=20
It's obvious that the bond market already smells a  rat, because in spite=20
of Greenspan's interest rate drops, the long  bond market refuses to rise.

  TODD Exactly. It's a telling point that about two months back=20
the  crossover point was reached where the Fed cut rates but the long  bond=
=20
no longer fell.

  MONEYCHANGER Which implies the steely-eyed bond traders said, "Nope,  we=
=20
aren't going to play this hand."

  TODD Exactly. 1986 was only 15 years ago and there are probably  enough=20
old boys around Wall Street who remember that and are saying,  "No, if you=
=20
want me to take 10-year risks with the dollar and US  Treasury bonds, I=20
want to be paid a higher rate for it."

  The interesting thing is, why doesn't a similar concern pop up in  the=20
gold price?

  MONEYCHANGER You tell me. The gold price has just made me throw my  hands=
=20
up in the air. There are only three possible explanations for  its deadness.

  First, the derivatives revolution of the last 70 years has given  people=
=20
alternative to gold in disaster protection or inflation.

  TODD Right. At a minimum call it "inflation protection." The=20
market  offers other vehicles besides gold.

  MONEYCHANGER Vehicles that they didn't have 20 years ago. The=20
second  explanation is that the market has become so indifferent to=20
gold  because for 70 years the American people has been propagandised=20
on  this imaginary, fiat system so that finally we have a generation  that=
=20
has forgot gold.

  The third explanation is that they're just outright rigging the  price. I=
=20
think there's a lot of evidence for that. You can't view  Greenspan's=20
history and conclude you have a man indifferent to the  gold price. In=20
fact, back in 1994 he stated before Congress that any  central bank that=20
ignores the gold price does so at its own peril. Still, gold doesn't=20
respond to these inflationary pressures. So  maybe it's one of those three=
=20
explanations, or a combination. TODD I think it's a combination. Around the=
=20
margins there may be a  little manipulation of the gold price. I haven't=20
yet seen enough  hard evidence of the manipulation to buy the GATA theory=20
totally,  but I think they've got their arms around at least a little bit=20
of  the truth.

  The circumstances are such that it would only take a little bit=20
of  manipulation to make a major change in the outcome. So I think=20
that  there's a little bit of manipulation and still just enough=20
central  bank gold sales under the Washington Agreement so that demand=20
is  soft.

  MONEYCHANGER From the beginning of 1999 to the end of 1999,  Greenspan=20
pumped $100 billion of currency into a system that began  with $450 billion=
=20
in circulation. The rate of monetary growth since  then, depending on which=
=20
monetary aggregate you use, has been  clipping along well above 15%, and in=
=20
some indicators above 20%.

  TODD Normally you'd say that's way too much, and the US has just  gotten=
=20
away with it because enough foreigners are willing to hold  dollars, so we=
=20
haven't yet had to pay the price.

  But I want to remind everybody about some earlier episodes, 1971   1979.=
=20
A lot of official US policy is built on assuming that there  will never=20
come a time when foreigners will get tired of holding US  dollars. In the=20
two years I mentioned, 1971  1979, that's exactly  what happened. They=20
called the Fed's bluff and said, "We're not  going to finance your current=
=20
account deficit any more, at least,  not at the current exchange rate."=20
Willy-nilly, the US was forced to  devalue. In 1979 they combined it with a=
=20
major hammer-hit on  interest rates.

  MONEYCHANGER A few months ago a professor from McGill University  floated=
=20
a theory that demand for cash dollars in Europe was keeping  the dollar's=20
exchange rate up. At the end of this year the old  national paper=20
currencies - Deutsche marks, pesetas, francs, lira -  will be withdrawn and=
=20
replaced by the paper Euro. At that point the  folks with untaxed, black=20
market profits held in national currencies  will lose them. If they try to=
=20
swap them for Euro currency, they'll  get caught.

  TODD Right, if you've been holding Deutsche marks underground,  you've=20
got a problem.

  MONEYCHANGER So the professor's theorises that, anticipating=20
that  changeover, Europeans are cashing in black market marks and=20
franks  and lira for US dollars and holding their untaxed profits that=20
way.  Add another fact to that. 70% of new $100 bills are sent=20
overseas,  and Treasury estimates that two-thirds to three-quarters of=20
US  currency circulates outside the borders of the US already. We  already=
=20
know there's a big foreign demand for US cash. To what  extent is the Euro=
=20
conversion affecting that?

  TODD It's just a small fraction of the whole, but at the margin=20
it  accounts for a lot of the demand, like the official manipulation=20
of  the gold price. It's not much as a fraction of the whole, but at=20
the  margin it makes a big difference in the marginal price. That's=20
what  is happening with foreign demand for the dollar. While it might=20
not  amount to much as a fraction of the whole, it's still enough at=20
the  margin to sop up as much as one-third to one-half of the=20
current  foreign demand for dollars.

  MONEYCHANGER Which is significant at the margin. TODD Yes.

  MONEYCHANGER And the margin is what the people at the Fed are=20
always  trying to control, just like herding cattle. If one breaks out,=20
you  have to get him back in, or the rest of them will follow him.

  TODD Exactly. Good analogy.

  MONEYCHANGER What signs should we look for that the dollar is=20
coming  unglued? One thing we haven't mentioned yet is the huge chunk of=20
US  government debt that foreigners own. Two years ago that stood=20
at  40%.

TODD It's still in that neighbourhood, a little over $2 trillion.=20
Ironically, the proportion of foreign ownership may keep rising as  the=20
Treasury redeems debt. The denominator is the total publicly  held debt and=
=20
the numerator is the foreign held part. That  foreign-held percentage will=
=20
keep rising in the near future, even if  they don't buy another dollar of=20
debt. Any significant liquidation  of the foreign position in US government=
=20
debt would be a major  danger signal.

MONEYCHANGER Where would we find that?

  TODD The only way you see it regularly is in the Fed's Board=20
of  Governors H.4.1 Release, the weekly statement of condition of=20
the  Federal Reserve banks. They also publish a monthly summary of that  in=
=20
the Federal Reserve bulletin. A line item entry there shows "US  government=
=20
securities held in custody by the Federal Reserve Banks  for foreign=20
official and international accounts." You can always  look at that total to=
=20
see whether it's rising or falling. The  benchmark number is $600 - 700=20
billion, where it has been in recent  years.

  [Go to , where you  will=20
find a list of dates to choose from. Choose the latest report.  After the=20
body of numbered items, you will find the first remark.  "On June 6, 2001,=
=20
the face amount of marketable U.S. government and  federal agency=20
securities held in custody by the Federal Reserve  Banks for foreign=20
official and international accounts was $709,699  million, a change of=20
$   2,692 million for the week." -- FS]

  MONEYCHANGER A liquidation of any significant portion of that debt  would=
=20
signal trouble.

  TODD Say the Japanese, with problems of their own, decide to cash=20
in  their dollars, you might see $300 billion walk out the door.=20
You'd  notice that in the Fed total. You might also see it in the long=20
bond  rate.

  MONEYCHANGER Driving the value of long bonds down by=20
drastically  increasing their supply.

  TODD Another signal would be a sudden, unexplained rise in the Euro.  If=
=20
the Europeans hold their interest rates more or less steady (and  currently=
=20
they are signalling that's exactly what they will do) and  still the Euro=20
started rising rapidly against the dollar, that would  be a signal that=20
people are bailing out of the dollar.

  MONEYCHANGER Recently the European Central Bank (ECB) dropped  interest=20
rates. That certainly looked like collusion with the Fed.  I think people=20
get confused when they listen to central bankers  because they all loudly=20
proclaim their own independence. Yet once a  month they meet in Basel at=20
the BIS.

  TODD The cynic would say they are independent of their governments  but=20
they all collude with each other. [laughing]

  MONEYCHANGER When you were talking about the early '80s I was  thinking=20
about the Plaza Accords.

  TODD The Plaza and Louvre Accords were the two things that kept  turning=
=20
the dollar around on a dime in '85 and '87.

  MONEYCHANGER The chart made it very obvious that some big policy  change=
=20
had been made.

  TODD But anyway I don't think we've got that sort of agreement yet.  You=
=20
might argue, we may need one to stem the rise of the dollar.  [laughing]=20
Another signal to watch is the US Dollar Index, the  trade-weighted value=20
of the dollar against major foreign currencies.  The base year, by the way,=
=20
is 1973, the first year of the official  float of the dollar. A "100" on=20
the dollar index equals the 1973  value.

  At 95 or below, US manufacturers and exporters do okay. Between 95  and=20
100, we are losing export competitiveness. At 100, it becomes very hard for=
=20
US exporters to sell anything  abroad. The current dollar index is around=20
120. The last time it was  that high was 1986.

  [For current quotes on the US Dollar Index, go to , in the=20
"Please  select the FUTURE Commodity below" window, select "US Dollar=20
Index."  You can get a daily or weekly chart of the US Dollar Index at --=
 FS]

  MONEYCHANGER Right before the stock market came down so hard.

  TODD Exactly.

  MONEYCHANGER The dollar index has stayed over 100 (with a few=20
short  exceptions) since the beginning of 1998. So US=20
export  competitiveness has been dropping for a long time.

  TODD Do you know about the four farmers' lawsuit in Colorado?

  MONEYCHANGER No.

  TODD Early in 2000 Gene Schroeder and three other plaintiffs filed=20
a  federal suit against the Treasury and other departments.=20
They  challenged the foreign exchange management of the dollar. On=20
what  grounds? Because as it was being carried out, it subverts=20
the  interests of farmers. This was wrong statutorily and  constitutionally=
=20
because it constituted an indirect "taking" of  farmer's production and=20
property rights. When you look at the  statutes that give the Treasury the=
=20
power to regulate foreign  exchange, or the executive branch power to=20
negotiate foreign  bilateral trade agreements, all of those statutes are=20
conditioned on  taking the agriculture's interests into account. Clearly,=20
they are  not using these powers that way, so we're saying either you begin=
=20
to  do that or you pay us parity prices.

  Where has the lawsuit gone? Initially the federal district court=20
in  Denver dismissed our complaint in July 2000. The farmers appealed=20
to  the 10th circuit federal court of appeals. We asked for oral  argument.=
=20
The government opposed it, but we got oral argument anyway  on March 13,=
 2001.

  It was the biggest event in the history of the 10th circuit, except  for=
=20
the Timothy McVeigh stuff. We had over 120 farmers standing  around a room=
=20
designed to hold ninety.

  MONEYCHANGER They must have nearly croaked. They must have called  out=20
every US marshal for a hundred miles. [laughing]

  TODD To give the court full credit, I thought they were great. As=20
a  lawyer I was proud and pleased with the way the 10th circuit  conducted=
=20
itself that day. It was probably the finest hour in the  history of the=20
American judicial system. The judges were informed,  they had read all the=
=20
briefs, they understood the arguments, they  asked appropriate and=20
pertinent questions. It was a great day to be  in the courtroom.

  They made it very clear that they took the issue very seriously and  that=
=20
they will issue a deliberate opinion. We're still waiting for  that.

  If we win, that certainly throws a monkey wrench into the=20
Treasury's  foreign exchange works. They suddenly have to consider new=20
factors  in deciding whether to prop up the strong dollar and keep all=20
the  things going that we were talking about.

  MONEYCHANGER Do you think Greenspan is riding a tiger?

  Does the new administration know they can't just climb off=20
the  tiger?              TODD Yes, and they also are well aware that if=20
Greenspan intends to  induce a recession for them, they want get it over=20
with now, as  opposed to two years from now. The longer he keeps delaying,=
=20
the  more likely that latter prospect is.              MONEYCHANGER Why is=
=20
he willing to take the gamble of keeping the  stock market bubble alive?

  TODD Generally speaking I think he's concerned about the=20
financial  condition of not only some banks but also some large=20
financial  market players. As you sit there and see all these other=20
companies  filing Chapter 11 it's clear he doesn't care if most companies=20
go  bankrupt. What he cares about is banks and securities firms,=20
hedge  funds, and so on.

  MONEYCHANGER So you're saying (and it shouldn't come as a surprise  to=20
anyone) is that the country is run for the benefit of Wall  Street, and the=
=20
rest of us be damned.

  TODD Yes, but I want to give Treasury Secretary O'Neill some=20
credit.  He's the first treasury secretary we've had from west of=20
the  Alleghenies in at least 20 years.

  MONEYCHANGER But he also hails from Andrew Mellon's old firm,=20
Alcoa.  [laughing]

  TODD Franklin, Franklin, Franklin, listen up. What was Andrew  Mellon's=20
policy on gold in the 1920s? He liked it, didn't he?

  MONEYCHANGER Yes.

  TODD He's our kind of guy. Don't badmouth Andrew Mellon.

  MONEYCHANGER Okay, but O'Neill is part of the same old Wall Street   Big=
=20
Business Establishment.

  TODD Yes, but if you must choose between Andrew Mellon on the one  hand=20
and Goldman Sachs on the other hand, which would you choose?

  MONEYCHANGER No choice. I'll go with Mellon every time.

  TODD Don't stand there waiting for the second coming. You're not  going=20
to get it. O'Neill is such a refreshing change compared to  what we've had=
=20
to deal with in the last 20 years, especially the  last 5 or 6 years, that=
=20
I'll shout hosannas at the very mention of  his name.

  MONEYCHANGER I was suspicious of Rubin and Summers. I think they  would=20
do anything to make money for their crowd in New York. I could  be wrong,=20
but I don't think they'd gag a minute at using the power  of government to=
=20
make money for their friends. Of course, they  wouldn't do it in a direct=
 way.

  They wouldn't hand out $100 bills, but they would create=20
conditions  whereby they can profit.

  In another direction, do you think it's possible that the dollar  could=20
come unglued altogether?

  TODD Well, yes, but you have to define "unglued." Let's phrase=20
it  another way. If the dollar index is at 120 and the powers that be=20
in  Basel ordered us to get the dollar to a level so that the=20
current  account deficit corrects itself and at least approach balance=20
again,  how low do you have to take that index? Let's put a tag on that.

  The answer is, based on recent experience we have to get it at=20
least  below 95, and to give it some running room you might want to take=20
it  all the way down to 90. The last time they did a major adjustment=20
of  that sort in the late '80s they took it all the way down to 87 or  88.=
=20
Let's assume 90 on the dollar index is the target figure=20
for  re-establishing a balanced current account. Well, 120 less 90=20
equals  30, and 30 divided by 120 equals 25%.

  You have to wipe out 25% of the US dollar's foreign exchange value.

  MONEYCHANGER My goodness!

  TODD That's the price of restoring a sustainable balance. That=20
great  loss is the main complaint. People have been pointing this out=20
to  the treasury for well over a year, back when the dollar index was  only=
=20
110. They warned the treasury, the longer you let this go on,  the bigger=20
the adjustment you must take to return to a sustainable  balance.

  MONEYCHANGER Walker, you're talking about returning the dollar to=20
a  sustainable current account balance, but when I say "come unglued,"  I=20
mean the possibility of a collapse.

  TODD Don't think that the dollar can drop to 25% of present=20
value,  because the world doesn't work that way anymore. Maybe in a=20
fair  minded world it should, but in a manipulated, collusive,=20
central  bank-run world, the greatest decline you're likely to see is in=20
the  neighbourhood of 25 - 30%.

  What would that do to the stock market? You might trigger a larger  than=
=20
25% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, just because  once the=20
dollar goes to the weak side, foreign investors lose the  incentive to buy=
=20
US rather than European stocks. That would drain an  awful lot of money out=
=20
of Wall Street. A 25% correction in the  dollar might trigger a 40% or 50%=
=20
correction on Wall Street.

  MONEYCHANGER We've watched Greenspan push the limit on what we  thought=20
was possible for central banks to do -- certainly major  central banks --=20
in terms of inflation. Imagine 20% annualised  monetary growth rates for a=
=20
couple of years. He has kept air in the  Wall Street Bubble, and kept on=20
blowing it up! In spite of all this,  I believe I just heard you say that=20
fundamentally it is no longer  possible for the dollar to collapse.

  TODD I think you'd see a 25% decline. That is entirely feasible now.=20
MONEYCHANGER But not an evaporation.

  TODD Right, not an evaporation. You won't see 1933 again.

  MONEYCHANGER Well, I suppose that's comforting.

  TODD You may get a generation long decline to 1933, but as an  overnight=
=20
phenomenon, no. [laughing]

  MONEYCHANGER I know that a "generation-long" decline is kind of a  joke,=
=20
but then again, it's not a joke.

  TODD We certainly went through that from 1966 forward. Over=20
the  following generation the dollar lost a great deal of its value.=20
But  the way the world is, assuming semi-rational men continue to run=20
it,  I wouldn't expect the dollar to decline more than 25-30% at the  most.=
=20
Europeans will always have to be dragged in kicking and  screaming. The=20
bidding would start with the treasury asking for 20%,  and the Europeans=20
asking for 10%. The likely initial compromise is a  15% decline in the=20
dollar. That still does nothing. All you do at a  dollar index value of 100=
=20
is to lock in the trade deficit at the  current level with no improvement.=
=20
Then you have to ask, How do you  like $400 billion trade deficits and $500=
=20
billion current account  deficits as far forward as the eye can see?

  MONEYCHANGER Doesn't that at some point decapitalise the United  States?

  Doesn't that at some point destroy the value of the dollar?

  TODD Yes, but it has consequences that are more pernicious than  that. It=
=20
transfers US assets into foreign hands, inviting the  re-creation of 19th=20
century finance, especially the first half of  the 19th century. You are no=
=20
longer the master of your own fate. You  wind up having to do whatever=20
foreign creditors demand.

  MONEYCHANGER You become Argentina.

  TODD Yes. So it's pernicious from the standpoint of=20
constitutional  governance in the long run. You don't want this trend to=20
continue,  versus the views of the globalisers, who are all saying, "Well,=
=20
we  just ought to be one more happy trading station on the great plain  of=
=20
global trade."

  MONEYCHANGER Isn't there a fundamental issue of independence=20
and  sovereignty here? So you're saying that it doesn't really matter  much=
=20
whether Republicans or Democrats are in charge . . .

  TODD Oh, I think it does matter, but it matters more which set=20
of  Republicans. As long as you've got Republicans from west of=20
the  Alleghenies running things, I'd argue you're better off than if=20
you  have any set of eastern Democrats or eastern Republicans=20
running  things. At the moment, we have the best set.

  MONEYCHANGER Is this like telling the man with diabetes that only  his=20
toes are gangrenous?

  TODD Yes, it's not a nice position but you have to live with it. We  can=
=20
live with heartland Republicans. Where the problem always  arises, as you=20
saw with Vermont senator Jeffors, is that eastern  Republicans are a=20
different breed and you may not necessarily want  them representing you.

  MONEYCHANGER Well, those of us from the South have felt that way for  a=20
long time.

  What does all this say for the stock market?

  TODD I tend to agree with you that it feels like it's at the crest  of=20
the wave, along with these other factors I've been discussing.  You watch=20
that dollar index keep going up and start asking yourself,  "Where's the=
 top?

  125? 130?" The bubble will blow as high as Greenspan and the  Treasury=20
allow that dollar index to go.

  MONEYCHANGER So our discussion has come full circle. The=20
really  important indicator to watch right now is the US dollar index.

  TODD I think so. At 100, I think Wall Street just stays wherever it  sits=
=20
at the moment. It will just sit there a while. At 95 you have a  prospect=20
for the DJIA to rise smartly, because US manufacturers'  profits return.

  MONEYCHANGER But is the converse true? If the dollar stays high, is  the=
=20
stock market doomed?

  TODD No, suppose the dollar index went to 130. One way it would=20
get  there is Greenspan  the Treasury allowing long bond rates to  continue=
=20
to rise to sustain foreign investors' purchases of dollars  in order to buy=
=20
those Treasury securities at the higher rate. As  long as you see a=20
corresponding rise in long term interest rates,  that dollar index is=20
likely to keep going up and suck Wall Street up  along with it.

  Where Wall Street would decline, I think, would be in that range  from=20
120 falling to 100, because with the dollar index in that  range, there's=20
no upside for the Dow. They still can't export  anything, and nobody wants=
=20
to buy your paper.

  MONEYCHANGER So on the one hand we export goods at the lower end of  the=
=20
dollar index range, and at the upper end of the range we export  paper.

  TODD That's right.

  MONEYCHANGER What a world! [laughing] That's insane. TODD I agree  with=20
you, it's an insane world. In the view of classical economists,  and=20
Austrian economists especially, money ought to be a neutral  factor. That's=
=20
the virtue of forcing a central bank to adhere to  some price that it=20
cannot control, a gold price, for example.

  MONEYCHANGER But I think I have understood that you are saying that  we=20
can't go back to a gold standard or convertibility.

  TODD I think Anna Schwartz made the wisest comment I ever heard on  this=
=20
issue. She was asked that question at a CMRE meeting once, "Why  don't we=20
go back to a gold standard?"

  She answered, "Because of the way central banks handle things."=20
This  immediately followed her talk about what a botch central banks=20
had  made of things.

  She added that at the Gold Commission in 1981 we decided that there  are=
=20
many virtues in the gold standard, but the problem is that  government has=
=20
grown far larger in our lives than it was in 1933,  the last time we were=20
on a gold standard. At the time, if you looked  at total government=20
expenditure was in the neighbourhood of 5 - 10%  of GDP versus today where=
=20
government at all levels is maybe 40% of  GDP. That means in the old days=20
the necessary adjustments to  maintain a gold price could be absorbed by a=
=20
private sector that was  90% of GDP. Today that absorption would have to be=
=20
taken by a  private sector that's only 60% of GDP, so that the consequences=
=20
for  the living standards of the average American would be at least=20
50%  more severe than in the old gold standard days of panics=20
or  recessions. They would automatically be 50% worse to get you where  you=
=20
had to go. So the task in the near term is shrink government to  the extent=
=20
that you could then safely adopt and live with a gold  standard.

  MONEYCHANGER So you must shrink government before you can ever get  rid=20
of the central bank incubus?

  TODD And the bad news is, of course, that the Establishment  controlling=
=20
that central bank will fight like rabid dogs to keep you  from shrinking=20
their government so as to take away their indirect  control of everything=20
through their control of the central bank.

  MONEYCHANGER That implies also that without a central bank,=20
no  government can metastasise to waste away 40% of the=20
commonwealth's  production.

  TODD That's why the standard Democratic Party formulas are a  disaster,=20
because they contemplate ever bigger government.

  MONEYCHANGER This has really been a cheerful conversation, Walker,  but I=
=20
really appreciate your insight on the dollar, and that's what  we're going=
=20
to keep our eyes on. Thanks very much.

  TODD You're quite welcome. [end]

  The Moneychanger is a privately circulated monthly newsletter edited  by=
=20
Franklin Sanders. Our goal is to help Christians prosper with  their=20
principles intact in an age of monetary and moral chaos. Subscriptions are=
=20
$95/year from P.O. Box 178, Westpoint, Tennessee  38486; (888) 218-9226).

  E-mail us at moneychanger@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx or visit our=20
website  www.the-moneychanger.com .

         Copyright 1999, 2000 Le Metropole Cafe. All rights reserved.









--__--__--

Message: 7
To: a-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2001 23:58:40 -0200
From: a-list-admin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [A-List] CIA met bin Laden in July  (Le Figaro)
Reply-To: a-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx



The conservative and  _respectable_  French newspaper Le Figaro dated
October, 31, says that the  "CIA would have met bin Laden past July  =
(....)
  at the premises of the American Hospital in the Dubai"  emirate.  He
stayed there during 15 days to be treated of a "serious renal
insufficience" by an US doctor, dr. Terry Callaway, a renowned =
specialist.
 It seems to have been a gentlemen's meeting, since the main CIA agent =
in
place  "would have even been informed about possible strikes"  (Cet =
agent
aurait m=EAme =E9t=E9 inform=E9 sur d'=E9ventuels [*]  attentats.).   =
It rather seems
a joke:  the CIA representative is not an undercover agent because he =
is
widely known  overthere  (que beaucoup de gens connaissent =E0 =
Duba=EF). =20


		[*]  Note that in the Latin languages  _eventuel_   means uncertain =
but
possible, although in English it means "taking place at un unspecified
later time"  (Webster).  =20


Osama bin Laden imported to his refuge at Kandahar a mobile dialyse
apparatus past year.  Is this handicapped man capable to endure a =
fierce
persecution through the inhospitable and barren mountains of the rugged
Afghanistan?


Osama arrived to Dubai flying from the Pakistani airport of Quetta and =
was
probably accompanied by the second man of his terrorist ring, the =
notorious
Egyptian surgeon Ayman al-Zawahari, plus 4 bodyguards and an Algerian
nurse.   He was kindly visited not only by the CIA but also by many
relatives and Arab personalities.=20


Le Figaro furthemore says that "the Dubai meeting was the logical suit =
of a
=ABcertain American policy=BB",  so concluding its report on the old =
ties
between Osama bin Laden and CIA since 1979, at Istanbul, where he =
managed a
family's company.   The newspaper also says that the FBI had  already
"discovered the =ABmontages=BB that CIA has developed with its =
=ABIslamic
friends=BB along the years"  since the former agency traced the blowing =
of
the US embassies at Nairobi (Kenya) and Dar-es-Salaam (Tanzanie) in =
August,
1998, to a military explosive made in USA that had been furnished three
years ago to Osama bin Laden's voluntary Arab brigades in Afghanistan.=20


In August, 2001, the US agencies held an urgent meeting with their =
French
counterparts and required minutely exact information from Algerian =
islamic
militants, but quite strangely the US top officers refused to disclose =
the
outlines of what they looked for  (les Am=E9ricains opposent un mutisme
difficilement compr=E9hensible).    Furthermore:   "According to =
different
Arabian diplomatic sources and to the French information services, =
quite
precise intelligence was communicated to the CIA about the terrorist
attacks against American interests in the world,  "comprising the =
Union's
territory"   in September, 7   --Le Figaro doesn't say if by  _Union_  =
it
refers to the European Union or to the United States .


The full text in French of these news is transcribed below.


The second Le Figaro news   --under the headline  "A =ABmonster=BB =
created by
the American services"--  mention the creation of the Osama bin Laden's
ring with the help of the CIA, of the Saudi information services and of =
the
billionaire Adnan Kashoggi.   Funds were then freely collected at the
mosques in USA.   Le Figaro adds:   "=ABCIA created a monster whose =
control
it has eventually lost=BB, as it was already predicted several years =
ago by
Daoud Mir, the former Afghan _charg=E9 d'affaires_ in Paris."  The =
second
news may be found at:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/cgi-bin/gx.cgi/AppLogic+FTContentServer?pagename=3D=
Futu
reTense/Apps/Xcelerate/View&c=3DfigArticle&cid=3DFIGINRRVETC&live=3Dtrue=
&Site=3Dtrue
&gCurChannel=3DZZZJTGN6J7C&gCurRubrique=3DZZZ4GPM6J7C&gCurSubRubrique=3D=
ZZZ6YQM6J7C


The third news refer to the Washington Post Monday edition  (Oct., 29). =
 It
deals with the 20 secret meetings  (at least)  in the latest three =
years,
up to a few days before the WTC bombing, between the Talibans and the =
US
government in order to get Osama bin Laden extradicted to the United
States.   See the following URL:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/cgi-bin/gx.cgi/AppLogic+FTContentServer?pagename=3D=
Futu
reTense/Apps/Xcelerate/View&c=3DfigArticle&cid=3DFIGAMRRVETC&live=3Dtrue=
&Site=3Dtrue
&gCurChannel=3DZZZJTGN6J7C&gCurRubrique=3DZZZ4GPM6J7C&gCurSubRubrique=3D=
ZZZ6YQM6J7C


Le Monde, another well known French daily newspaper, published on =
October
23 an extensive article about the Islamic extremism in Bosnia and
Herzegovina.   Estimates of foreigners coming from everywhere in the =
Muslim
world range up to 25,000.   From 1992 on many  foreign _moudjahidins_
(holy warriors) were enlisted in the former 7th brigade of the Bosnian
Army, including war criminals  (3,000 to 5,000  _moudjahidins_ ).  They
were allowed to enter the country during the civil war by the former
Bosnian Muslim leader Alija Izetbegovic, also an ally of USA in the
dismemberment of Yugoslavia. A part of them obtained  Bosnian =
nationality.
Richard Holbrooke, the US negotiator of the 1995 Dayton agreements, =
named
it  a "pact with the devil".=20


Many  _humanitarian_  Islamic NGOs are quite actively woking in the
country, including those which keep relations with the Osama bin =
Laden's
ring, as the Saudi High Commission, or the Sudan-based TWRA -- Third =
World
Relief Agency, that is a cover for weapons smuggling.   It is also =
related
to sheikh Omar Abdel Rahmane, the mastermind behind the 1993  World =
Trade
Center bombing.


According to a non-identified member of the government, the aid of the
Arabian countries=20
to the tiny Bosnia and Herzegovina amounted to 1,5 billion dollars =
along
the past five years, what means 25% of the total foreign aid to that
country.   Nevertheless, almost all the resources thus obtained have =
been
used to promote Islam, to build new mosques, to keep koranic schools =
and to
publish religious literarture.


The full text of the article may be found at

http://www.lemonde.fr/article/0,5987,3230--236116-,00.html


In solidarity,

R. Magellan


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LE FIGARO

     Alexandra Richard
       Publi=E9 le 31 octobre 2001,=20
     page 2


La CIA aurait rencontr=E9 Ben Laden en juillet
     L'ennemi public num=E9ro un aurait =E9t=E9 soign=E9 dans =
l'h=F4pital=20
     am=E9ricain de Duba=EF au d=E9but de l'=E9t=E9 pour de graves=20
     insuffisances r=E9nales. Durant son s=E9jour de 15 jours, le=20
     milliardaire saoudien aurait re=E7u la visite d'un repr=E9sentant=20
     local de la CIA. Cet agent aurait m=EAme =E9t=E9 inform=E9 sur=20
     d'=E9ventuels attentats.

     Duba=EF, l'un des sept =E9mirats de la f=E9d=E9ration des Emirats=20
     arabes unis, au nord-est d'Abu Dhabi. Cette ville de 350 000=20
     habitants a =E9t=E9 le th=E9=E2tre discret d'une rencontre =
secr=E8te entre=20
     Oussama ben Laden et le repr=E9sentant de la CIA sur place, en=20
     juillet. Un homme, partenaire professionnel de la direction=20
     administrative de l'h=F4pital am=E9ricain de Duba=EF, affirme que=20
     l'ennemi public num=E9ro un a s=E9journ=E9 dans cet =
=E9tablissement=20
     hospitalier du 4 au 14 juillet.

     En provenance de l'a=E9roport de Quetta au Pakistan, Oussama=20
     ben Laden a =E9t=E9 transf=E9r=E9 d=E8s son arriv=E9e =E0 Duba=EF =
Airport.=20
     Accompagn=E9 de son m=E9decin personnel et fid=E8le lieutenant,=20
     qui pourrait =EAtre l'=C9gyptien Ayman al-Zawahari - sur ce point=20
     les t=E9moignages ne sont pas formels -, de quatre gardes du=20
     corps, ainsi que d'un infirmier alg=E9rien, Ben Laden a =E9t=E9 =
admis=20
     =E0 l'h=F4pital am=E9ricain, un b=E2timent de verre et de marbre =
situ=E9=20
     entre Al-Garhoud Bridge et Al-Maktoum Bridge.

     Chaque =E9tage comporte deux suites =ABVIP=BB et une quinzaine=20
     de chambres. Le milliardaire saoudien a =E9t=E9 admis dans le =
tr=E8s=20
     r=E9put=E9 d=E9partement d'urologie du docteur Terry Callaway,=20
     sp=E9cialiste des calculs r=E9naux et de l'infertilit=E9 =
masculine. Joint=20
     par t=E9l=E9phone =E0 de multiples reprises, le docteur Callaway =
n'a=20
     pas souhait=E9 r=E9pondre =E0 nos questions.

     En mars 2000 d=E9j=E0, l'hebdomadaire Asia Week publi=E9 =E0=20
     Hongkong s'inqui=E9tait de la sant=E9 de Ben Laden, faisant =E9tat =

     d'un grave probl=E8me physique pr=E9cisant que ses jours =E9taient =

     en danger =E0 cause d'une =ABinfection r=E9nale qui se propage au=20
     foie et n=E9cessite des soins sp=E9cialis=E9s=BB. Selon des =
sources=20
     autoris=E9es, Ben Laden se serait fait livrer dans son repaire=20
     afghan de Kandahar l'ensemble d'un mat=E9riel mobile de=20
     dialyse au cours du premier semestre 2000. Selon nos=20
     sources, le =ABd=E9placement pour raison de sant=E9 de Ben=20
     Laden=BB n'est pas le premier. Entre 1996 et 1998, Oussama=20
     ben Laden s'est rendu plusieurs fois =E0 Duba=EF pour ses=20
     affaires.

     Le 27 septembre, quinze jours apr=E8s les attentats du World=20
     Trade Center, sur demande am=E9ricaine, la Banque centrale=20
     des Emirats arabes unis a annonc=E9 avoir ordonn=E9 le gel des=20
     comptes et des investissements de 26 personnes ou=20
     organisations soup=E7onn=E9es d'entretenir des contacts avec=20
     l'organisation de Ben Laden, notamment aupr=E8s de la Duba=EF=20
     Islamic Bank.

     =ABLes rapports entre l'Emirat et l'Arabie Saoudite ont=20
     toujours =E9t=E9 tr=E8s =E9troits, expliquent nos sources, les =
princes=20
     des familles r=E9gnantes qui avaient reconnu le r=E9gime des=20
     talibans se rendaient souvent en Afghanistan. Un des=20
     princes d'une famille r=E9gnante participait r=E9guli=E8rement =E0 =

     des chasses sur les terres de Ben Laden qu'il connaissait et=20
     fr=E9quentait depuis de nombreuses ann=E9es.=BB Une liaison=20
     a=E9rienne entre Duba=EF et Quetta est d'ailleurs quotidiennement=20
     assur=E9e par les compagnies Pakistan Airlines et Emirates.=20
     Quant aux avions priv=E9s =E9miratis ou saoudiens, ils desservent=20
     fr=E9quemment Quetta o=F9 ils ne sont la plupart du temps ni=20
     enregistr=E9 ni consign=E9 dans les registres de l'a=E9roport.

     Durant son hospitalisation, Oussama ben Laden a re=E7u la=20
     visite de plusieurs membres de sa famille, de personnalit=E9s=20
     saoudiennes et =E9miraties. Au cours de ce m=EAme s=E9jour, le=20
     repr=E9sentant local de la CIA, que beaucoup de gens=20
     connaissent =E0 Duba=EF, a =E9t=E9 vu empruntant l'ascenseur=20
     principal de l'h=F4pital pour se rendre dans la chambre=20
     d'Oussama ben Laden.

     Quelques jours plus tard, l'homme de la CIA se vante devant=20
     quelques amis d'avoir rendu visite au milliardaire saoudien. De=20
     sources autoris=E9es, l'agent de la CIA a =E9t=E9 rappel=E9 par sa =

     centrale le 15 juillet, au lendemain du d=E9part de Ben Laden=20
     pour Quetta.

     A la fin juillet, les douaniers =E9miratis arr=EAtent =E0 =
l'a=E9roport de=20
     Duba=EF un activiste islamiste franco-alg=E9rien, Djamel Beghal.=20
     D=E9but ao=FBt, les autorit=E9s fran=E7aises et am=E9ricaines sont =

     alert=E9es. Interrog=E9 par les autorit=E9s locales =E0 Abu Dhabi, =

     Beghal raconte qu'il a =E9t=E9 convoqu=E9 en Afghanistan fin 2000=20
     par Abou Zoubeida - un responsable militaire de=20
     l'organisation de Ben Laden, Al Quaida. La mission de=20
     Beghal: faire sauter l'ambassade des Etats-Unis, avenue=20
     Gabriel, pr=E8s de la place de la Concorde, =E0 son retour en=20
     France.

     Selon diff=E9rentes sources diplomatiques arabes et les services=20
     de renseignements fran=E7ais eux-m=EAmes, des informations tr=E8s=20
     pr=E9cises ont =E9t=E9 communiqu=E9es =E0 la CIA concernant des=20
     attaques terroristes visant les int=E9r=EAts am=E9ricains dans le=20
     monde, y compris sur le territoire de l'Union.
     Un rapport de la DST dat=E9 du 7 septembre rassemble la=20
     totalit=E9 de ces donn=E9es, pr=E9cisant que l'ordre d'agir devait =

     venir d'Afghanistan.=20

     En ao=FBt, =E0 l'ambassade des Etats-Unis =E0 Paris, une r=E9union =

     d'urgence est convoqu=E9e avec la DGSE et les plus hauts=20
     responsables des services am=E9ricains. Extr=EAmement inquiets,=20
     ces derniers pr=E9sentent =E0 leurs homologues fran=E7ais des=20
     demandes de renseignements tr=E8s pr=E9cises concernant des=20
     activistes alg=E9riens, sans toutefois s'expliquer sur le sens=20
     g=E9n=E9ral de leur d=E9marche. A la question =ABque craignez-vous =

     dans les jours qui viennent?=BB, les Am=E9ricains opposent un=20
     mutisme difficilement compr=E9hensible.

     Les contacts entre la CIA et Ben Laden remontent =E0 1979=20
     lorsque, repr=E9sentant de la soci=E9t=E9 familiale =E0 Istanbul, =
il=20
     commen=E7a =E0 enr=F4ler des volontaires du monde=20
     arabo-musulman pour la r=E9sistance afghane contre l'Arm=E9e=20
     rouge. Enqu=EAtant sur les attentats d'ao=FBt 1998 contre les=20
     ambassades am=E9ricaines de Nairobi (Kenya) et de=20
     Dares-Salaam (Tanzanie), les enqu=EAteurs du FBI ont=20
     d=E9couvert que les traces laiss=E9es par les charges proviennent=20
     d'un explosif militaire de l'arm=E9e am=E9ricaine et que cet=20
     explosif a =E9t=E9 livr=E9 trois ans auparavant =E0 des Afghans =
arabes,=20
     les fameuses brigades internationales de volontaires, engag=E9s=20
     au c=F4t=E9 d'Oussama ben Laden durant la guerre d'Afghanistan=20
     contre l'arm=E9e sovi=E9tique.

     Poursuivant ses investigations, le FBI d=E9couvre des=20
     =ABmontages=BB que la CIA avait d=E9velopp=E9s avec ses =ABamis=20
     islamistes=BB depuis des ann=E9es. La rencontre de Duba=EF ne=20
     serait donc que la suite logique d'une =ABcertaine politique=20
     am=E9ricaine=BB






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